FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Club Linesman]

34 minutes ago, gigi riva said:

I cannot be all that great  

Don’t put yourself down. You contribute a great deal to the forum!

[blueseeka]

Friendlies are not worth much at all. Serbia lost today so they will be down to 1504

 

[Kadenge]

So Panama are still ahead of us after our win yesterday?

[narduch]

Panama didn't even play this window

[Obinna]

41 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

So Panama are still ahead of us after our win yesterday?

Beating USA in Copa America probably won them a lot of points, as they were the 16th ranked nation. We made it further, but the only victory we had in regulation was against 38th ranked Peru. Had we beat Venezuela in regulation it would have helped, and of course beating Uruguay, which we should have done, would have catapulted us into the mid-to-low 30s. Had we done that, our result today could have had us pushing into the high 20s.

[frattinator]

If i understand correctly, the Nations League seeding for the QF draw isn't set yet. So if we can get a result against Mexico and / or beat Panama in Oct, we should be able to leap frog them and face the second best team coming out of the group stage? It feels like we will probably play either Costa Rica or Jamaica (though Jamaica's 0-0 draw against Cuba didn't do them any favours) regardless though. 

[youllneverwalkalone]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

4-8-8 all games not on US soil since the loss to Canada in fall 2019 in Toronto. They've won four of twenty away from home in 5 years. 

That must be worst amongst top 20 teams.

[youllneverwalkalone]

2 hours ago, narduch said:

Remember in Nations League when they lost away to bloody Trinidad and Tobago. That was a major tell

Their only true away match in the last 21 months lol

[Neil R.]

This is the most recent version of the CONCACAF rankings (post-COPA). It looks like the CONCACAF rankings at the end of October will determine how the top 4 are seeded for the Nations League quarter-finals.

With our win yesterday over the US, we'll have more than a 13-point cushion now over Panama, and we'll have closed the gap a bit with the US. I didn't realize the US was only 36 points ahead of us in the CONCACAF rankings. I don't know how many CONCACAF points you get for defeating the US in a friendly, but even if it's 6 like in the FIFA rankings, that's like closing a 12-point gap since the team you're chasing loses the same number of points you gain.

By the end of the October window, the race for 2nd could actually be pretty close. It's closer than I thought it was.

[Mihairokov]

There's been a lot of movement in the ELO ratings, as expected. We've passed both Poland and Australia and are now top 30.

A two-goal win over Mexico Tuesday would put us ahead of them in these rankings. 

Edited September 8 by Mihairokov

[Kent]

5 hours ago, frattinator said:

If i understand correctly, the Nations League seeding for the QF draw isn't set yet. So if we can get a result against Mexico and / or beat Panama in Oct, we should be able to leap frog them and face the second best team coming out of the group stage? It feels like we will probably play either Costa Rica or Jamaica (though Jamaica's 0-0 draw against Cuba didn't do them any favours) regardless though. 

Just looked at the schedule/table. Jamaica's next game is away to Honduras which is a tough, tough game. If they lose that, their chances of advancing will be on life support, especially if Nicaragua can win in Cuba. They also have to play Honduras twice, so it will be tough for both Jamaica and Honduras to advance.

[eramosat]

2 hours ago, Neil R. said:

This is the most recent version of the CONCACAF rankings (post-COPA). It looks like the CONCACAF rankings at the end of October will determine how the top 4 are seeded for the Nations League quarter-finals.

With our win yesterday over the US, we'll have more than a 13-point cushion now over Panama, and we'll have closed the gap a bit with the US. I didn't realize the US was only 36 points ahead of us in the CONCACAF rankings. I don't know how many CONCACAF points you get for defeating the US in a friendly, but even if it's 6 like in the FIFA rankings, that's like closing a 12-point gap since the team you're chasing loses the same number of points you gain.

By the end of the October window, the race for 2nd could actually be pretty close. It's closer than I thought it was.

Yeah...I guess none of us know how the CONCACAF rankings actually calculate.   From thin research, in addition to the usual (friendly vs. CONCAF event vs. WC event) factor, and the (win-draw-loss) factor and the (how good are each team) factor, there might actually be a home game factor....oooh.

Given that home game factor, and friendlies seem to get a lot more credit in these rankings than in FIFA rankings (50% more?)...plus how close Canada already is to the USA in CONCACAF rankings as opposed to FIFArankings ...I think, yes, 2nd should be within grasp!  I wonder if the federation tells teams about it, as if their game results could be managed as a result...as if it actually meant something tangible?  Wierd...

I'll hope for a Mexico win, and a Nations League matchup versus...well, a 2nd-place group finisher as opposed to a 1st place group finisher.

 

 

[ahmedou]

7 hours ago, blueseeka said:

Friendlies are not worth much at all. Serbia lost today so they will be down to 1504

 

38) Canada 🇨🇦

39) Tunisia 🇹🇳

My two countries ❤️

[costarg]

21 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Fifa doesn't set it up so the US always plays at home, which is what really skews the rankings. It's the consent of CONCACAF and Canada is complicit with that. 

That's two separate things, but both correct.  FIFA likes the top 20 to be static, CONCACAF benefits from matches in the USA.

[InglewoodJack]

If my napkin math is correct, a win v. Mexico, assuming Nigeria beats Rwanda and CIV beat Chad tomorrow, will likely bring us ahead of Panama and Russia, good for 36th.

19 hours ago, blueseeka said:

Friendlies are not worth much at all. Serbia lost today so they will be down to 1504

 

 

[Sal333]

12 hours ago, ahmedou said:

38) Canada 🇨🇦

39) Tunisia 🇹🇳

My two countries ❤️

When did you buy them and for how much?

[Kent]

1 hour ago, costarg said:

That's two separate things, but both correct.  FIFA likes the top 20 to be static, CONCACAF benefits from matches in the USA.

He's just pointing out that USA in all likelihood wouldn't be in the top 20 if CONCACAF didn't make them hosts of everything. It's frustrating we don't really know where they stack up against the world with their skewed schedule.

[Kingston]

23 minutes ago, Kent said:

He's just pointing out that USA in all likelihood wouldn't be in the top 20 if CONCACAF didn't make them hosts of everything. It's frustrating we don't really know where they stack up against the world with their skewed schedule.

It is.  As an estimate, however:

Canada (ignoring our most recent results which won't  have moved  the long term needle incredibly far yet) and Costa Rica are teams that usually beat most other CONCACAF teams but haven't historically been elite CONCACAF teams.  We're both in the high 1400s for points.

Mexico is an (the?) elite CONCACAF team with a bit over 1600 points despite playing a disproportionate number of games away in the US.

The US is also over 1600 points but with a home field advantage points boost.

So maybe around 1550 points which would be good for about 25th in the rankings?

Another difficulty with the FIFA rankings is that the strongest teams in the weaker confederations tend to get a rankings boost by beating up on the local minnows as compared to the European and South American squads.  There are six teams from CONCACAF, CAF, and AFC in the top twenty of the rankings and I'm not sure any of them would even make the World Cup if they had to qualify through Europe.

[blueseeka]

I posted this in wrong thread.

Win should get to 33

[Obinna]

https://www.concacaf.com/en/rankings/men-s-national-team/

We gained 14 points in the CONCACAF rankings during Copa America. If a win against Peru, a draw against Chile, and two draws against Venezuela and Uruguay are good for 14 points, how many points do we get for friendly wins against USA and Mexico? maybe 10 points? maybe more? 

The USA lost 18 points for losses to Panama and Uruguay, along with a Bolivia win. Pretty remarkable they lost more points than we gained, while playing half the games. This leads me to ask, how many points will they lose after Saturday's loss to us? 7 points?

Either way, I thought it was unrealistic that we catch them ahead of November, and maybe it still is, but they will likely be in the high 1700s (maybe 1795-1799) after this window, while we could potentially be around the 1780 mark, maybe even higher (1780-1785?).

It's still a long shot, but it looks possible we can catch them, no?

[Floortom]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

It is.  As an estimate, however:

Canada (ignoring our most recent results which won't  have moved  the long term needle incredibly far yet) and Costa Rica are teams that usually beat most other CONCACAF teams but haven't historically been elite CONCACAF teams.  We're both in the high 1400s for points.

Mexico is an (the?) elite CONCACAF team with a bit over 1600 points despite playing a disproportionate number of games away in the US.

The US is also over 1600 points but with a home field advantage points boost.

So maybe around 1550 points which would be good for about 25th in the rankings?

Another difficulty with the FIFA rankings is that the strongest teams in the weaker confederations tend to get a rankings boost by beating up on the local minnows as compared to the European and South American squads.  There are six teams from CONCACAF, CAF, and AFC in the top twenty of the rankings and I'm not sure any of them would even make the World Cup if they had to qualify through Europe.

Mexico games in the U.S. are defacto home games (or at worst relatively  neutral when they play the U.S.). It is nothing like the atmosphere when Canada or any other concacaf nation plays in the U.S.

[Watchmen]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

He's just pointing out that USA in all likelihood wouldn't be in the top 20 if CONCACAF didn't make them hosts of everything. It's frustrating we don't really know where they stack up against the world with their skewed schedule.

The flip side is that neither do they. I think they frequently misjudge where they actually are in the world because of their over reliance on a clearly flawed ranking system. They get a proper test every 4 years and then they're stunned to find out they're still so far away from actually winning a WC.

[Kent]

37 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

The flip side is that neither do they. I think they frequently misjudge where they actually are in the world because of their over reliance on a clearly flawed ranking system. They get a proper test every 4 years and then they're stunned to find out they're still so far away from actually winning a WC.

They don't threaten to win the World Cup, that is true, but they typically do OK there. I don't know if that changes if they are a pot 4 team instead of a pot 2 team or wherever they usually land.

[Watchmen]

11 minutes ago, Kent said:

They don't threaten to win the World Cup, that is true, but they typically do OK there. I don't know if that changes if they are a pot 4 team instead of a pot 2 team or wherever they usually land.

But they're not making progress either. They do ok but they're never an actual threat.

[Kingston]

48 minutes ago, Kent said:

I don't know if that changes if they are a pot 4 team instead of a pot 2 team or wherever they usually land.

If we assume their "real" ranking strength would put them something around 25th, it would bump them from pot 2 to pot 3.  It would make their road a little harder but the luck of the draw would probably outweigh any marginal change between those two pots.  I mean, in 2022 they ended up in a pool where their pot 4 team was Wales, who were ranked 18th in the world, instead of someone in the 30s or 40s, and look how that turned out.