FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Kadenge]

Crazy that our tie vs Mexico was considered to be a game played on neutral ground, when 98% of the fans were pro Mexico. It's an advantage for Mexico to play all their games in the USA,  Win/Loss.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

3 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

That is certainly part of it. I tried to estimate NZ based on their FIFA ranking (95) being between Curacao (88) and T&T (101). But T&T's CONCACAF ranking is quite a bit higher than Curacao. But playing with the numbers in that range won't get me from -37 to -31 (more like -35).

What if, just like for FIFA rankings, the weighting is higher for friendlies played within the FIFA window than those played outside of it? Would that help explain part of the swing?

[maplebanana]

3 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

What if, just like for FIFA rankings, the weighting is higher for friendlies played within the FIFA window than those played outside of it? Would that help explain part of the swing?

Yes, that would help. But the USA vs PAN game was inside the window, no?

I can get the model to make sense but only if they assigned a value of 1700 for NZ, which would put them just ahead of CRC. Which seems awfully high.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

39 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

That is certainly part of it.

If you've slightly underestimated friendly matches within the FIFA window, it still seems like you are overestimating the loss of points for a draw against New Zealand. The USA losing ~17 points for their draw against the Kiwis is a wild swing.

Like, what if what is at play is the not so much New Zealand's "CONCACAF" ranking but actually the coefficient used in your formula for a draw?

Sorry, just searching wildly for a reason.

Thanks for your work on this file

Edited September 30 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[maplebanana]

1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

If you've slightly underestimated friendly matches within the FIFA window, it still seems like you are overestimating the loss of points for a draw against New Zealand. The USA losing ~17 points for their draw against the Kiwis is a wild swing.

Like, what if what is at play is the not so much New Zealand's "CONCACAF" ranking but actually the coefficient used in your formula for a draw?

Sorry, just searching wildly for a reason.

Thanks for your work on this file

I realized I actually forgot to include the home field advantage in the CAN vs USA game, which leads to CAN getting +23.7 instead of +19 (I fixed that in my original post). That means my window calculation is now +26.5 (vs actual +25). 

Based on my model the USA would have lost 23.7 points for losing to us and lost 13.6 for drawing NZ. That does seem like a lot but it was also a pretty big upset, so maybe?

If I adjust the coefficients (from 175 to 100 for home field adv) then I get exactly Canada +25 and USA -31 in the window (assume NZ is 1500, or Haiti-like). But then it's no longer consistent with the data set that I used to develop this model in the first place (March 2023).

I think bottom line: Beat Panama, and cheer for the USA to lose (even against PAN) and we end up 2nd

 

[archer21]

FYI don’t listen to me on this stuff, I basically just eyeballed based on the ES and GUA match. I don’t have a model, I was just guessing because I didn’t know someone had actually done the work to build a model. Not pretending to be an expert here lol

[archer21]

3 hours ago, maplebanana said:

I realized I actually forgot to include the home field advantage in the CAN vs USA game, which leads to CAN getting +23.7 instead of +19 (I fixed that in my original post). That means my window calculation is now +26.5 (vs actual +25). 

Based on my model the USA would have lost 23.7 points for losing to us and lost 13.6 for drawing NZ. That does seem like a lot but it was also a pretty big upset, so maybe?

If I adjust the coefficients (from 175 to 100 for home field adv) then I get exactly Canada +25 and USA -31 in the window (assume NZ is 1500, or Haiti-like). But then it's no longer consistent with the data set that I used to develop this model in the first place (March 2023).

I think bottom line: Beat Panama, and cheer for the USA to lose (even against PAN) and we end up 2nd

 

Any prediction on what the total points would be assuming Canada and USA both win all their October matches? Would be nice if we “controlled our own destiny”.

[maplebanana]

1 hour ago, archer21 said:

Any prediction on what the total points would be assuming Canada and USA both win all their October matches? Would be nice if we “controlled our own destiny”.

Based on my model using my original coefficients, a win @ MEX nets them +25 pts. Winning both is +37 which would put them at 1811, which just clips us at 1806 if we win. A mexico/usa draw though would put them at 1797 though. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

What @maplebanana and others are helping us conclude, thanks, is that we have to go all out for the win vs. Panama playing our very best side. 

So the whole business of a call-up with new caps and dual nationals, all very well to be part of the group and train in Montreal. But in Toronto we play with our very best, our starters, and we go for the jugular as our future tournament play in 2025 depends on the best ranking possible.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

https://www.ussoccer.com/stories/2024/10/usmnt-announces-changes-to-october-training-camp-roster

Good news for Panama I guess.

[ahmedou]

Does the fact in October that we'll play 1 friendly game instead of 2 friendly games can affect our Fifa ranking? Yes or no...

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 10/7/2024 at 6:54 AM, ahmedou said:

Does the fact in October that we'll play 1 friendly game instead of 2 friendly games can affect our Fifa ranking? Yes or no...

Well...yes, it's just that the potential gain or loss of points is not as much. The same idea applies to our CONCACAF ranking.

In the short term, our FIFA ranking does not matter anyways. It may not be important until late 2026 or early 2027.

https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men

What is important in the short term is our CONCACAF ranking:

https://www.concacaf.com/rankings/men-s-national-team/

Edited Thursday at 04:02 PM by Olympique_de_Marseille

[narduch]

I know it doesn't matter, but on ELO rankings:

Mexico - 23

Canada - 29

USA - 39

Panama - 42

Edited October 16 by narduch

[Obinna]

Speaking of rankings....

https://football-ranking.com/rankByConfederation?zone=CONCACAF&period=

[Jedi Ram]

[eramosat]

The post-Tuesday FIFA rankings look even better!

 

Edited Thursday at 11:45 PM by eramosat

[ahmedou]

13 hours ago, eramosat said:

The post-Tuesday FIFA rankings look even better!

 

We play better than a 35th ranking team. We play more like a 15th ranking team.

That's why I don't put too much emphasis on FIFA rankings.

[Lansdude]

These rankings take forever to move. No idea how the States and Mexico are in the teens. It's like they're earning interest on their points.

[Kent]

6 minutes ago, Lansdude said:

These rankings take forever to move. No idea how the States and Mexico are in the teens. It's like they're earning interest on their points.

Let's compare recent results. In reverse chronological order.

2024 Copa America - Canada 4th, Mexico 9th, USA 11th
2024 Nations League - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada QF
2023 Gold Cup - Mexico 1st, USA SF, Canada QF
2023 Nations League - USA 1st, Canada 2nd, Mexico 3rd
2022 World Cup - USA R16 (14th), Mexico Grouped (22nd), Canada Grouped (31st)
2022 Nations League - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada Grouped
2021 Gold Cup - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada SF

More often than not we are finishing further behind both USA and Mexico in official competitions. It should take more than a shootout win over Venezuela and a friendly win over USA for us to catch up to them.

[Lansdude]

1 minute ago, Kent said:

Let's compare recent results. In reverse chronological order.

2024 Copa America - Canada 4th, Mexico 9th, USA 11th
2024 Nations League - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada QF
2023 Gold Cup - Mexico 1st, USA SF, Canada QF
2023 Nations League - USA 1st, Canada 2nd, Mexico 3rd
2022 World Cup - USA R16 (14th), Mexico Grouped (22nd), Canada Grouped (31st)
2022 Nations League - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada Grouped
2021 Gold Cup - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada SF

More often than not we are finishing further behind both USA and Mexico in official competitions. It should take more than a shootout win over Venezuela and a friendly win over USA for us to catch up to them.

It's not so much us catching up to them as it is them being where they are, when we all know they kinda suck. But yeah their rolling average remains higher than ours. We can get technical but really I'm just venting. We haven't been getting results at some crucial junctures.

[Kent]

3 hours ago, Lansdude said:

It's not so much us catching up to them as it is them being where they are, when we all know they kinda suck. But yeah their rolling average remains higher than ours. We can get technical but really I'm just venting. We haven't been getting results at some crucial junctures.

CONCACAF is partially at fault/credit for that. Having USA host absolutely everything helps their FIFA ranking, and of course it's not that bad for Mexico either. It's bad for every other CONCACAF nation's ranking that would have hosted things if competitions got moved around. 

[Mihairokov]

4 hours ago, Lansdude said:

These rankings take forever to move. No idea how the States and Mexico are in the teens. It's like they're earning interest on their points.

It's why ELO is better 😉

[narduch]

Interesting that Suriname is the biggest gainer year over year 

[Neil R.]

The next FIFA ranking update is on Wednesday.

I like that Suriname gained ranking points this month. They defeated Guyana and drew Costa Rica, so their number of FIFA and CONCACAF points is going to be higher than it was. That could work out nicely for us if we have a really good November. The team we're about to play twice just received a little bump up in the rankings, and any ranking points earned from our 2 matches against them will be calculated at a higher multiplier now that we're in the Nations League quarter-finals.

[eramosat]

On 10/18/2024 at 10:45 AM, Kent said:

Let's compare recent results. In reverse chronological order.

2024 Copa America - Canada 4th, Mexico 9th, USA 11th
2024 Nations League - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada QF
2023 Gold Cup - Mexico 1st, USA SF, Canada QF
2023 Nations League - USA 1st, Canada 2nd, Mexico 3rd
2022 World Cup - USA R16 (14th), Mexico Grouped (22nd), Canada Grouped (31st)
2022 Nations League - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada Grouped
2021 Gold Cup - USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Canada SF

More often than not we are finishing further behind both USA and Mexico in official competitions. It should take more than a shootout win over Venezuela and a friendly win over USA for us to catch up to them.

As we approach 2026 World Cup, and when we participate, and beyond, I just hope Canada gets some more exposure to any teams in the other confederations.

The COPA experience was a wonderful reminder of the ability of top 15 soccer nations, and the effort required to beat them, as well as in 16-50, and more.  And the style of play that can dominate, and what a resilient team has to do.  Yes, Canada did well, but we had a draw and a win (with 10 men problems) and a shootout win against 2nd tier CONMEBOL.  ANother COPA< if we're ever invited again, would be awesome to a huge degree.  Test this team, please!

A UEFA series?  A dream, but entirely unlikely. A CAF series...or an AFC series...I would take anything. What does Canada have to do to for consideration in any possible events?  Do we have to pay?