FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[InglewoodJack]

What’s been our highest ELO score? Feel like during the WCQ we had made it to the high 20s, but can’t remember. 
 

Assume a win against Chile puts us into the top 30. Though we’d probably go right back down with a loss in the quarters. 

[maplebanana]

ELO has always been the 'more accurate' ranking, but ultimately things of consequence (seeding/pots) are always based on FIFA (or CONCACAF) rankings so it's kind of a moot point. That being said, the change in FIFA ranking methodology in the late 2010's is such that it's now based on ELO-like math, only maybe with different coefficients. So the two methods are not as far off as they once were.

[Kent]

6 hours ago, maplebanana said:

ELO has always been the 'more accurate' ranking, but ultimately things of consequence (seeding/pots) are always based on FIFA (or CONCACAF) rankings so it's kind of a moot point. That being said, the change in FIFA ranking methodology in the late 2010's is such that it's now based on ELO-like math, only maybe with different coefficients. So the two methods are not as far off as they once were.

Do you, or anybody, know if anyone has actually measured ELO vs FIFA ranking in terms of how well it can predict results? I know people always say ELO seems to be more accurate, but as far as I know that is just based on the eye test. It would be interesting to see if anyone has checked a bunch of games and see which one has fewer upsets than the other (like with Team A vs Team B, Team B wins even though they were lower ranked by FIFA, but they were higher ranked by ELO, so that's a point for ELO because they already knew Team B was the better team).

[maplebanana]

17 minutes ago, Kent said:

Do you, or anybody, know if anyone has actually measured ELO vs FIFA ranking in terms of how well it can predict results? I know people always say ELO seems to be more accurate, but as far as I know that is just based on the eye test. It would be interesting to see if anyone has checked a bunch of games and see which one has fewer upsets than the other (like with Team A vs Team B, Team B wins even though they were lower ranked by FIFA, but they were higher ranked by ELO, so that's a point for ELO because they already knew Team B was the better team).

You are getting me sufficiently excited to the point that it almost caused me to open up MATLAB out of instinct lol

But seriously, no I haven't looked at this statistically. I'm sure someone has before though. If not, sounds like a good project for Christina at 6yd screamers twitter. She is great with this kind of big data stuff.

[maplebanana]

Alright I asked her this question on twitter. Will get back to you.

[maplebanana]

She says no, she hasn't but is also pretty sure someone has done this study before. If I can get access to a summarized pool of results since 2018 I could maybe give it a shot. Though big data is definitely not my strong suit.

[Floortom]

If we beat Chile and USA / Mexico both lose, we would be the highest ranking Concacaf team per ELO. 

[Mihairokov]

1 hour ago, Floortom said:

If we beat Chile and USA / Mexico both lose, we would be the highest ranking Concacaf team per ELO. 

We were ahead of them both during a brief period in 2021, too, right?

[Floortom]

29 minutes ago, Mihairokov said:

We were ahead of them both during a brief period in 2021, too, right?

No, as far as I can tell we have never been #1.

On Feb.2.2022 we reached #21 while US was #22 and Mexico was #19.

[Unnamed Trialist]

I find Elo assinine, sorry. It doesn't help us at all, we don't get seedings out of it, we don't play a game that uses it (talking about sanctioned football). And it gives us all these delusional arguments about we being far better and others far worse. When for about thirty years those other nations HAVE been far better, and we've been terrible. 

It'd be like the 43rd ranked chess player in the world arguing he's really 17th and should get tournament invites because he applied the FIFA ranking model to his results. 

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I find Elo assinine, sorry. It doesn't help us at all, we don't get seedings out of it, we don't play a game that uses it (talking about sanctioned football). And it gives us all these delusional arguments about we being far better and others far worse. When for about thirty years those other nations HAVE been far better, and we've been terrible. 

It'd be like the 43rd ranked chess player in the world arguing he's really 17th and should get tournament invites because he applied the FIFA ranking model to his results. 

I wouldn't go as far as saying assinine, but I do agree it isn't particularly useful. Yes, we may consider it more accurate, but are we saying that just because we have a more favourable ranking in that system? Personally, I do generally consider the ELO rankings a little closer to reality, but the claim we'll be ahead of the USA and top of concacaf if we beat Chile (and the Americans lose to Uruguay) seems like a little much...

Most importanly though, I just don't see the point in thinking too deeply about it. Nice there is an alternative ranking system, especially one that is more favourable to us, but it doesn't amount to anything. I am far more interested in what our FIFA ranking will be after the Copa America, like that system or not. 

[costarg]

6 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I find Elo assinine, sorry.

I dunno, I don't put too much into either FIFA or ELO rankings.  But according to ELO we were favorites vs Peru, while FIFA had them favored.  Elo also has us above Chile for what ever that is worth.

[Unnamed Trialist]

3 hours ago, costarg said:

I dunno, I don't put too much into either FIFA or ELO rankings.  But according to ELO we were favorites vs Peru, while FIFA had them favored.  Elo also has us above Chile for what ever that is worth.

Thing is, Canada is only affected by FIFA rankings, nothing else. If we hadn't lost our last qualifiers we had a chance at a third pot seed for Qatar and an easier group. That matters. Elo does not matter at all. 

[king1010]

3 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Thing is, Canada is only affected by FIFA rankings, nothing else. If we hadn't lost our last qualifiers we had a chance at a third pot seed for Qatar and an easier group. That matters. Elo does not matter at all. 

Its a nice barometer to remind us how shit the fifa rankings are

[costarg]

5 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Thing is, Canada is only affected by FIFA rankings, nothing else. If we hadn't lost our last qualifiers we had a chance at a third pot seed for Qatar and an easier group. That matters. Elo does not matter at all. 

Oh absolutely, you're 100% correct there.  ELO means nothing in an operational and functional sense.  Its just a lot more accurate in ranking the teams.  

[Kadenge]

Other than the WC, teams generally play competitive games intra confederation, so any world ranking system is going to be flawed. This edition of the Copa will be a good barometer for ranking teams btw Concacaf and Conmebol. 

[narduch]

Looks like these combined Copas are a great way for Conmebol to pad its rankings

[Mihairokov]

3 hours ago, Kadenge said:

Other than the WC, teams generally play competitive games intra confederation, so any world ranking system is going to be flawed. This edition of the Copa will be a good barometer for ranking teams btw Concacaf and Conmebol. 

I think I mentioned this earlier but OFC was incredibly insular for a long time and that goes a long way to explaining why a lot of their countries are rated higher than a lot of Concacaf countries which are likely better. FIFA and ELO can only reflect what matches teams play, although at least with ELO it feels more accurate and up-to-date. FIFA rankings always feel like they're six months behind reality. 

[eramosat]

15 hours ago, king1010 said:

Its a nice barometer to remind us how shit the fifa rankings are

no.  it is equally a reminder of (1) how quickly the ELO rankings move, one game's results hold a lot of sway and (2) how completely irrelevant they are, whilst being quite similar to in-region rankings  FIFA maintains, barring point 1, an over-exaggeration of the last result(s)..

 

[eramosat]

12 hours ago, narduch said:

Looks like these combined Copas are a great way for Conmebol to pad its rankings

And it would be correct, if CONMEBOL teams win their games against CONCACAF teams.  which they should do, if they don't get penalized with red cards.  quite a dynamic at play here

[Unnamed Trialist]

18 minutes ago, eramosat said:

And it would be correct, if CONMEBOL teams win their games against CONCACAF teams.  which they should do, if they don't get penalized with red cards.  quite a dynamic at play here

We've gotten points off two superior ranked CONMEBOL teams.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

Draw give us +.5

Same placement.

 

Edited see below

Edited June 30 by WestHamCanadianinOxford
Late even in Mountain time

[eramosat]

7 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

We've gotten points off two superior ranked CONMEBOL teams.

Yes, "we" are holding the line for CONCACAF, whilst teams like USA and Mexico fail to meet a reasonable standard.

And yet Panama has still surpassed us.  It is a tough back-and-forth game.

[eramosat]

6 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Win gives us +18.01 points 

Rough math say up to 41st as it stand, displacing Chile in fact.  

Ahem.

What, or which, win are you speculating about?

[blueseeka]

10 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Win gives us +18.01 points 

Rough math say up to 41st as it stand, displacing Chile in fact.  

Tie?