ensco Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 hours ago, Xavier. said: Some of these percentages cannot be right. The US for instance. They are away to Mexico and CR, and home to Panama. There are lots of scenarios where they finish 4th, and a few where they finish 5th. They are probably going to Qatar, but are nowhere close to 98+% likely... rdb9ty and narduch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shway Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said: Someone responding to this on the Twitter account wonders if canceling Guatemala may come back to hurt us. That person should know that training matches don’t get FIFA points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unnamed Trialist Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 27 minutes ago, Shway said: That person should know that training matches don’t get FIFA points. It depends if it was just called "training" but was in fact a friendly. We don't really know, don't think. Sometimes these terms are used ambiguously, as a way of not having to worry about selling ticket and the like. We have had plenty of closed-door or near matches that were in fact official friendlies with FIFA points on the line, and with international referees appointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Approve My Account Pls Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 45 minutes ago, ensco said: Some of these percentages cannot be right. The US for instance. They are away to Mexico and CR, and home to Panama. There are lots of scenarios where they finish 4th, and a few where they finish 5th. They are probably going to Qatar, but are nowhere close to 98+% likely... I think because it factors in the ELO ranks the simulations heavily favour the US (22) getting results over Panama (58) and Costa Rica (48). I'm sure the Panamanian and Costa Rican odds aren't helped by playing the ELO Giants of Canada. But I agree 98+% is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shway Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 30 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said: It depends if it was just called "training" but was in fact a friendly. We don't really know, don't think. Yes we did know. https://www.canadasoccer.com/news/canada-to-face-guatemala-in-florida-ahead-of-fifa-world-cup-qualifiers/ Unnamed Trialist, Kyle_The_Hill, Corazon and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gigi riva Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 with qualification pretty much in place , I want to see Canada go up the next level and play some Euro teams like a Switerland, Serbia, Sweden Denmark just to see where we do stack up . in prep for Qatar Xavier., johnyb, Corazon and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sal333 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, gigi riva said: with qualification pretty much in place , I want to see Canada go up the next level and play some Euro teams like a Switerland, Serbia, Sweden Denmark just to see where we do stack up . in prep for Qatar I'd even want to see a team or two from the top tier - like France, England or Spain. Xavier. and gigi riva 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jedi Ram Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 hours ago, Cblake said: Canada would loose points with a tie in Costa Rica I believe. Because of the rapid climb up the FIFA rankings, any draws or losses will lose points in the next three games. So if we are to gun for Pot 3, then we must continue to win the remaining games. Sal333, Floortom, narduch and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGAA_Star Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 42 minutes ago, gigi riva said: with qualification pretty much in place , I want to see Canada go up the next level and play some Euro teams like a Switerland, Serbia, Sweden Denmark just to see where we do stack up . in prep for Qatar All we need is a win or a draw against Costa Rica to qualify more or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archer21 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, baulderdash77 said: Our chance at pot 3 relies on other team’s results as much as our own. For sure we have to win out. Besides that we’re counting on other results. If Ghana or Scotland make it, we will be in Pot 3. I don’t think it’s really that simple, but yes we do have to rely on other teams’ results. If Scotland make it, but Sweden make it over Russia (who the chart has in Pot 4), then we end up the top team in Pot 4 still. There are a lot of things that can still change, it’s still really early to say it comes down to whether this 1 or 2 teams do or do not qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGAA_Star Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, archer21 said: I don’t think it’s really that simple, but yes we do have to rely on other teams’ results. If Scotland make it, but Sweden make it over Russia (who the chart has in Pot 4), then we end up the top team in Pot 4 still. There are a lot of things that can still change, it’s still really early to say it comes down to whether this 1 or 2 teams do or do not qualify. Hoping both Ghana and Scotland make it but my country Ghana I have no faith in us beating Nigeria like at all. Now Scotland on the other hand they are in a tournament like format to qualify out of UEFA...if they beat Ukraine at home, they face either Wales or Austria and whoever wins that qualifies for Qatar in the UEFA playoff. Scotland has a pretty easy Path in Path A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obinna Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said: Hoping both Ghana and Scotland make it but my country Ghana I have no faith in us beating Nigeria like at all. Now Scotland on the other hand they are in a tournament like format to qualify out of UEFA...if they beat Ukraine at home, they face either Wales or Austria and whoever wins that qualifies for Qatar in the UEFA playoff. Scotland has a pretty easy Path in Path A. I don't have faith in you beating Nigeria either Canuckistan2019, MtlMario and Approve My Account Pls 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I came to this thread to ask questions.. looks like we people were way ahead of me. Thanks I'm getting ready for some way way outta town scoreboard watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miche Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Updated live rankings. Table's default is that higher seeds advance in qualifying. Pot 1 Pot 2 Pot 3 Pot 4 Qatar 1437 Denmark 1654 Sweden 1588 Nigeria 1509 Belgium 1828 Netherlands 1653 Senegal 1581 Canada 1497 Brazil 1823 Germany 1648 Wales 1578 Tunisia 1489 France 1786 Mexico 1647 Iran 1572 Cameroon 1472 Argentina 1766 USA 1643 Serbia 1547 Ecuador 1458 England 1755 Switzerland 1642 Morocco 1547 Saudi Arabia 1433 Italy 1740 Croatia 1620 Japan 1549 Peru (IC) 1563 Spain 1704 Uruguay 1605 South Korea 1522 Panama (IC) 1375 Teams to watch: •Tunisia / Mail: We've succesfully passed Tunisia on pts. We'll want to stay ahead, or they could get upset by Mali (1446). •Senegal / Egypt: Egypt (1484) upsetting Senegal would be great, though Egypt could pass us on pts in doing so. We want them to lose in AFCON, and then upset Senegal. •Cameroon / Algeria: Algeria (1460) upsetting Cameroon would be great, though it's possible we stay ahead of Cameroon on pts even if they win AFCON. •Nigeria / Ghana: A Ghana (1381) upset would be great, otherwise it will be very close whether we can pass Nigeria on pts. We have three matches left while they have two. •Morocco /DR Congo: DR Congo (1221) upset is unlikely. •Australia / Japan: Japan's win and Australia's draw were unfortunate, makes it much harder for Australia to surpass them, but they pla each other in March. •Scotland (1471) / Russia (1493): We are ahead of both, so either winning their playoff group would be great. •Austria (1511) / Czech Rep (1510): We're unlikely to catch either on pts if they win their groups. Will update again after AFCON. GasPed, Xavier., Corazon and 6 others 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allez les Rouges Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, Miche said: Updated live rankings. Table's default is that higher seeds advance in qualifying. Pot 1 Pot 2 Pot 3 Pot 4 Qatar 1437 Denmark 1654 Sweden 1588 Nigeria 1509 Belgium 1828 Netherlands 1653 Senegal 1581 Canada 1497 Brazil 1823 Germany 1648 Wales 1578 Tunisia 1489 France 1786 Mexico 1647 Iran 1572 Cameroon 1472 Argentina 1766 USA 1643 Serbia 1547 Ecuador 1458 England 1755 Switzerland 1642 Morocco 1547 Saudi Arabia 1433 Italy 1740 Croatia 1620 Japan 1549 Peru (IC) 1563 Spain 1704 Uruguay 1605 South Korea 1522 Panama (IC) 1375 Teams to watch: •Tunisia / Mail: We've succesfully passed Tunisia on pts. We'll want to stay ahead, or they could get upset by Mali (1446). •Senegal / Egypt: Egypt (1484) upsetting Senegal would be great, though Egypt could pass us on pts in doing so. We want them to lose in AFCON, and then upset Senegal. •Cameroon / Algeria: Algeria (1460) upsetting Cameroon would be great, though it's possible we stay ahead of Cameroon on pts even if they win AFCON. •Nigeria / Ghana: A Ghana (1381) upset would be great, otherwise it will be very close whether we can pass Nigeria on pts. We have three matches left while they have two. •Morocco /DR Congo: DR Congo (1221) upset is unlikely. •Australia / Japan: Japan's win and Australia's draw were unfortunate, makes it much harder for Australia to surpass them, but they pla each other in March. •Scotland (1471) / Russia (1493): We are ahead of both, so either winning their playoff group would be great. •Austria (1511) / Czech Rep (1510): We're unlikely to catch either on pts if they win their groups. Will update again after AFCON. If AUT/CZE win their groups thanks to penalty shootouts, there is a chance that we pass them since winning in a shootout counts as 75% of a regular win. GasPed and Kyle_The_Hill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle_The_Hill Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, Allez les Rouges said: If AUT/CZE win their groups thanks to penalty shootouts, there is a chance that we pass them since winning in a shootout counts as 75% of a regular win. So to do for March: Cheer for underdogs Hope for penalty shootouts I can do that Xavier., narduch, Allez les Rouges and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil R. Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 A potential silver lining to Costa Rica defeating Jamaica yesterday could be that their ranking points go a bit higher as a result of the victory, which would give us a fraction more should we defeat them on March 24th. baulderdash77, johnyb, Miche and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle_The_Hill Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said: So to do for March: Cheer for underdogs Hope for penalty shootouts I can do that Starting early. Great work everyone. narduch, GasPed and Xavier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoginess Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 hours ago, Cblake said: Canada would loose points with a tie in Costa Rica I believe. I guess gone are they days where we could tie El Salvador and gain points. end of an era InBorjanWeTrust and rkomar 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplebanana Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Egypt wins in penalty kicks, which is a good result for us. They gain only 9.56 pts, which puts them still behind us. So we sit at #33 still in the live rankings. Now we have to cheer for Senegal in the finals (i'm assuming we can't catch them anyway). TGAA_Star, Xavier., baulderdash77 and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Keeper Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 17 hours ago, Allez les Rouges said: Tonga withdrew due to the volcanic eruption... I saw that a few hours after I posted. I feel for them. Allez les Rouges, Jedi Ram and Unnamed Trialist 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gigi riva Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Instead of worrying about all these scenerios . Lets just concentrate on Costa Rica and Jamiaca and try aim for 4 points and guess what Qualification is in our hands let Panama Mexico and Gods Country The USA scramble for there places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGAA_Star Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 16 hours ago, maplebanana said: Egypt wins in penalty kicks, which is a good result for us. They gain only 9.56 pts, which puts them still behind us. So we sit at #33 still in the live rankings. Now we have to cheer for Senegal in the finals (i'm assuming we can't catch them anyway). Definitely want Senegal to win AFCON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sal333 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) 16 hours ago, maplebanana said: Egypt wins in penalty kicks, which is a good result for us. They gain only 9.56 pts, which puts them still behind us. So we sit at #33 still in the live rankings. Now we have to cheer for Senegal in the finals (i'm assuming we can't catch them anyway). They were awarded 19.56 points. You're forgetting the Africa Cup of Nations Playoffs are weighted at 40 points. Our CONCACA WC qualification are only weighted at 25 points. That's one of the reasons I think the FIFA rankings are utter bullshit. Egypt is ahead of us now. https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings Edited February 4, 2022 by Sal333 johnyb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archer21 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sal333 said: They were awarded 19.56 points. You're forgetting the African qualifications are worth more than the CONCACA qualifications. That's one of the reasons I think the FIFA rankings are utter bullshit. It’s because it’s the knockout round of their confederation’s tournament. It would be the same for us in semis of Gold Cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now