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ted

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Working on a "CPL cold facts" thread. Obviously I have a particular bias, but I am trying to compile a list of every report that had new information (no analysis pieces), so hopefully it will be fairly neutral. Gathering primarily from the threads here, reddit, and some twitter stuff I've dug up. I'm rereading all the articles as I go out of interest in re-examining my ideas about where the evidence is pointing.

One interesting thing I've found, hitting around February this year, the discourse around Ottawa seemed to change:

- Prior to fall 2015, the talk was that there were 6 committed franchises (CFL/NHL) but the CSA was slowing things down in an attempt to bring Edmonton and Ottawa on board.

- Pugh had an interview that was positive but cautious about CPL, while Dos Santos was critical of the idea.

- Around Christmas 2015, the word was that Ottawa had jumped ship to the CPL group.

- Around February 2016, suddenly Montagliani was saying things like "the door is still open for Ottawa".

I'm stopping for tonight, but I believe it was a couple months later that the Fury rumour mill started pumping out the USL vs NASL stuff. Those reports taken together look like a split to me. Obviously very speculative, and I need to go through the mountain of articles from when CPL started taking off in the media between March and now to paint a fuller picture, but it makes me wonder

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10 hours ago, Ansem said:

It's logical

MLS was always going to ask for more than the previous contract. With viewership being low, it's understandable why it wasn't worth it. Paying that much money for so little content to show, (only 3 teams to cover)

TSN pursuing CPL at a cheaper price, with more Canadian content, more teams and matches to cover with the possibility for having the the same viewership or more is a no-brainer.

They got out of the MLS contract while they still could.

I think this probably summerizes the situation nicely, espcially since the move to TSN exclusively is what many attribute the surge in CFL television ratings to. They took a struggling product on CBC with lame gimmick production and turned it into a professional product and emphasizing it as a Canadian product, which is simply hard to do with MLS.

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5 hours ago, gwsmith63 said:

Just a thought, but maybe TSN is finally feeling the financial impact of losing the NHL deal to Sportsnet?

I kinda doubt it, mainly because TSN is owned by Bell media and ESPN and both are still raking in the money from a realtively cheap but well drawing CFL product, the majority of the Raptors games (which as much as I hate to say it...Basketball is growing in our country), Golf, Tennis, Curling and IIHF events. It's a much more diversified portfolio then Rogers which consists of Jays, and Hockey since the MLB, NFL, random NBA games and various Premier League broadcasts are shared between broadcasters (although I believe TSN gets the NFL broadcasts for a better price point due to the ESPN affiliation).

I think more likely Rogers is feeling financial impact as ratings for Hockey is down from last year, and they paid a ridiculous amount for it. Everyone is quick to blame Strombo, but poor analysis, lack of Canadian teams in the playoffs, perceived disrespect for Canada by the leauge (Pheonix and Las Vegas anyone), the concussion monster, cord cutting, lingering strike fatigue and trying to force down a fake international tourney down fan's throats isn't doing the NHL any favours. That said, I'd still wager they are making money, just not as much as they thought they would, espcially if this rut continues.

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7 hours ago, Complete Homer said:

When Duane Rollins states that Soccer Night in Canada has nothing to do with CPL based on conversations with connections at TSN and CBC, no one questions his credibility.

The difference is that they have registered the trademark and are already using a "Soccer Night in Canada" logo beside MLS stories on their website, so it isn't just a case of believing Duane Rollins, because he says so.

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1 hour ago, -Hammer- said:

I kinda doubt it, mainly because TSN is owned by Bell media and ESPN and both are still raking in the money from a realtively cheap but well drawing CFL product,...

Really? The CFL cheerleaders on here always like to accentuate the positive but reality is different, because the owners of TSN are having to prop up the Argos to keep the league afloat. The Argos have bombed this season in attendance terms with the perception being that the average of 15,000 or so is only being achieved by handing out thousands of freebies. The ticket prices for the Grey Cup have had to be slashed, which was supposed to be how they would recoup their money on BMO Field renovation expenses:

https://www.thestar.com/sports/argos/2016/10/18/toronto-argonauts-cut-ticket-prices-for-grey-cup.html

The Toronto Argonauts are giving Canadian football fans a break.

The CFL club has reduced prices for this year’s Grey Cup game at BMO Field, with tickets starting at $89 and thousands more being available for less than $150. Under previous pricing, the cheapest tickets were $169 and $199 and went up to $899.

Argos president Michael Copeland said Tuesday the adjustments will affect mostly the mid-range tickets for the Nov. 27 contest.

“Ultimately, we want the stadium to be full,” Copeland said. “We want people to understand how great it is to see a football game at BMO Field, especially one of the scale and excitement of the Grey Cup.

CFL ratings have also been in decline in recent years:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/football/grey-cup-revives-viewership-halts-steep-ratings-slide-of-recent-years/article27538136/

The ratings bump was welcome news for TSN, whose owner, Bell Media, has a significant interest in the CFL as the television rights-holder and, as of January, part-owner of the Toronto Argonauts. Regular-season audiences for the CFL have been declining in recent years; they were down 15 per cent on average for the 2015 season, to about 600,000 viewers per game.

Given that backdrop it's reasonable to conclude that the owners of TSN have not been making as much money as they anticipated on the CFL in recent times. Couple that with losing hockey to Rogers and they may well be looking to offload emerging sports properties that require significant investment to build a new audience.

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As for a CPL facts thread, there aren't really any facts (CSA acknowledging they're working towards it and the bubble in Hamilton).  Other than that there are just 136 pages here of dreams, hopes, wishes, guesses and assumptions lol.

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9 hours ago, Complete Homer said:

Working on a "CPL cold facts" thread. Obviously I have a particular bias, but I am trying to compile a list of every report that had new information (no analysis pieces), so hopefully it will be fairly neutral. Gathering primarily from the threads here, reddit, and some twitter stuff I've dug up. I'm rereading all the articles as I go out of interest in re-examining my ideas about where the evidence is pointing.

One interesting thing I've found, hitting around February this year, the discourse around Ottawa seemed to change:

- Prior to fall 2015, the talk was that there were 6 committed franchises (CFL/NHL) but the CSA was slowing things down in an attempt to bring Edmonton and Ottawa on board.

- Pugh had an interview that was positive but cautious about CPL, while Dos Santos was critical of the idea.

- Around Christmas 2015, the word was that Ottawa had jumped ship to the CPL group.

- Around February 2016, suddenly Montagliani was saying things like "the door is still open for Ottawa".

I'm stopping for tonight, but I believe it was a couple months later that the Fury rumour mill started pumping out the USL vs NASL stuff. Those reports taken together look like a split to me. Obviously very speculative, and I need to go through the mountain of articles from when CPL started taking off in the media between March and now to paint a fuller picture, but it makes me wonder

Apologies. Although I do think it's a good idea, my point was more that we know very little yet people are making some very big leaps to a large extent from their own speculation combined with their own opinion about how soccer in Canada should move forward. Didn't mean to send you on a wild goose chase. 

The closest we have to 'cold facts' are what @Rheo mentioned above. AFAIK there is no other independently confirmed and public information. 

That does not, however, mean that no work is being done on the league. Several folks on here are much closer to the action, know much more than they are letting on, but have been asked to stay silent in the meantime, and therefore cannot say anything publicly. So that's encouraging. 

But even if you're Bob Young, and know every detail about what's done to date about CanPL, until you have those (minimum 6 perhaps) signatures on paper and are standing in front of a press conference announcing the league, lots of things could happen to scuttle the deal. This isn't a knock on CanPL as it very much looks like it's on its way. But if league announcement were delayed, if investors who were once committed back out and they have to go back to the drawing board, if negotiations for TV or sponsorships don't pan out, or any of a thousand other things happen, the league might die before it launches. This is not pessimism or denial that the league is further ahead than has been formally announced. It is simply a recognition that business deals can go south and regularly do. 

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5 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

The difference is that they have registered the trademark and are already using a "Soccer Night in Canada" logo beside MLS stories on their website, so it isn't just a case of believing Duane Rollins, because he says so.



You still took his explanation of said logo based on his TSN sources ("I was told by my sources, specifically a high up TSN employee, that TSN was dropping MLS and CBC had picked it up. Waiting for CBC to corroborate") without question when it lined up with your established beliefs, but disregard him as non-credible whenever he speaks about CPL or TSN backing likely from the exact same source.

That's fine, that's a completely normal bias you displayed, and if doesn't mean you can't make good arguments. It just means that you cannot continue the pretension that you are "evidence based" while everyone else dreaming, since you do exactly what they do, interpret evidence with a strong bias towards your pre-established thoughts regarding CPL regardless of whether or not you use sources inconsistently.

 

 

1 hour ago, Rheo said:

As for a CPL facts thread, there aren't really any facts (CSA acknowledging they're working towards it and the bubble in Hamilton).  Other than that there are just 136 pages here of dreams, hopes, wishes, guesses and assumptions lol.

By cold facts, I mean making a timeline of X was reported by Y at Z date. That's not saying all reports are necessarily factual, but it's worth collating everything available to paint as full if a picture as possible to prevent cherry picking 

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7 minutes ago, rob.notenboom said:

Apologies. Although I do think it's a good idea, my point was more that we know very little yet people are making some very big leaps to a large extent from their own speculation combined with their own opinion about how soccer in Canada should move forward. Didn't mean to send you on a wild goose chase. 

The closest we have to 'cold facts' are what @Rheo mentioned above. AFAIK there is no other independently confirmed and public information. 

That does not, however, mean that no work is being done on the league. Several folks on here are much closer to the action, know much more than they are letting on, but have been asked to stay silent in the meantime, and therefore cannot say anything publicly. So that's encouraging. 

But even if you're Bob Young, and know every detail about what's done to date about CanPL, until you have those (minimum 6 perhaps) signatures on paper and are standing in front of a press conference announcing the league, lots of things could happen to scuttle the deal. This isn't a knock on CanPL as it very much looks like it's on its way. But if league announcement were delayed, if investors who were once committed back out and they have to go back to the drawing board, if negotiations for TV or sponsorships don't pan out, or any of a thousand other things happen, the league might die before it launches. This is not pessimism or denial that the league is further ahead than has been formally announced. It is simply a recognition that business deals can go south and regularly do. 

I understood your meaning, and I agree, but I still see value in a collation of everything we can get our hands on. A lot of pet theories fit perfectly with one report but fall apart in the wider context, etc. It doesn't even have to be for the purpose of debate, but it might just be nice to have a record on here about the lead up to the league should it come to fruition. 

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3 minutes ago, Complete Homer said:

You still took his explanation of said logo based on his TSN sources ("I was told by my sources, specifically a high up TSN employee, that TSN was dropping MLS and CBC had picked it up. Waiting for CBC to corroborate") without question when it lined up with your established beliefs, but disregard him as non-credible whenever he speaks about CPL or TSN backing likely from the exact same source.

Getting a bit bizarre now. I haven't listened to the podcast in question and probably won't. It was you that pointed out on here that the SNIC logo only shows up on MLS stories on the CBC website and that I have checked out and found to be accurate.

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15 minutes ago, Complete Homer said:

I understood your meaning, and I agree, but I still see value in a collation of everything we can get our hands on. A lot of pet theories fit perfectly with one report but fall apart in the wider context, etc. It doesn't even have to be for the purpose of debate, but it might just be nice to have a record on here about the lead up to the league should it come to fruition. 

Yes. Agree with every word of that. 

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14 minutes ago, Rheo said:

Not totally related but because he comes up here a lot and just curious but there seems to be a quite a bit of negativity towards Rollins on the board.  Is there a reason why?

Personally I have nothing against the guy but his reporting is more rumours than anything else and the dates he mentions come and go with nothing happening again and again. 

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4 minutes ago, TRM said:

Personally I have nothing against the guy but his reporting is more rumours than anything else and the dates he mentions come and go with nothing happening again and again. 

I get the dates thing but things happen to change timelines (as we assume we've seen with the delays)  I like to assume his sources are legit.  Although he reported the MLS/TSN thing on one source based on what he said on the pod yesterday.  I know most media like to have two.  Like I said I enjoy the pod those two do and was just curious if there was something in the past I didn't know about that brought about the negativity.

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1 minute ago, Rheo said:

I get the dates thing but things happen to change timelines (as we assume we've seen with the delays)  I like to assume his sources are legit.  Although he reported the MLS/TSN thing on one source based on what he said on the pod yesterday.  I know most media like to have two.  Like I said I enjoy the pod those two do and was just curious if there was something in the past I didn't know about that brought about the negativity.

Nice try, R(eho)llins....

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2 hours ago, Rheo said:

Not totally related but because he comes up here a lot and just curious but there seems to be a quite a bit of negativity towards Rollins on the board.  Is there a reason why?

I think you may be misinterpreting what is going on for many of us. I have been accused of being "negative" but all I have ever done when he reports about CanPL is ask for more information, sources and confirmation from a second source. You know, reasonable questions. The kind of questions normally asked of journalists before their reporting is accepted as fact.

Honestly I feel for the guy. He is in an impossible position trying to get information out but all he has is rumours from a very close-lipped organization which is taking a hugely long time to get anything done. And to top it off I have no doubt the "plan" has undergone significant revisions from the first time he was told anything.

 

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36 minutes ago, ted said:

I think you may be misinterpreting what is going on for many of us. I have been accused of being "negative" but all I have ever done when he reports about CanPL is ask for more information, sources and confirmation from a second source. You know, reasonable questions. The kind of questions normally asked of journalists before their reporting is accepted as fact.

Honestly I feel for the guy. He is in an impossible position trying to get information out but all he has is rumours from a very close-lipped organization which is taking a hugely long time to get anything done. And to top it off I have no doubt the "plan" has undergone significant revisions from the first time he was told anything.

 

Like I said, I'm not judging, just was wondering if there was some story I didn't know. Those are all reasonable questions.  I brought up the lack of a second source in the TSN/MLS in another post on here from the pod yesterday.  

As for the no win part, it seems it's no win generally for the CPL on here.  It takes too long complain but if they rushed and it failed there would be complaining lol.  Add in the pro/rel people, anti draft people, the pro/anti NASL/USL/MLS people, etc and it seems like no one will be happy on the board lol.

The funny thing is yeah it's taken a long time from the original report with nothing really concrete but in reality how many people truly care?  The fifty or so of us who fill this up for 137 pages and counting? For 99.999999% of Canadians it'll most likely be, "Huh, a Canadian soccer league has formed.  That's interesting"

I'm as guilty as everyone else on here.  I spend way too much time at work checking the board and this thread out especially.  But the formation of the league is important to me and in my opinion to the future success of the Men's program.  I'm patient though.  Anyways back to work

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Aside from Soccer Night in Canada, MLS on CBC will mean less MLS on TV. I can't see CBC showing every Whitecaps game and majority of TFC matches on tv like TSN has done. And Radio Canada isn't likely to be showing all Impact matches like TVA.

I'm assuming Sportsnet will still carry some TFC matches. But CBC will likely kick the rest of matches like a 10 pm EST Whitecaps to online streams. It could even include showing playoffs online since I can't see CBC TV carrying MLS on 2 straight weeknights.

Plus, as noted by many, unlikely any non-Canadian matches will be shown. 

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1 hour ago, Rheo said:

 

Like I said, I'm not judging, just was wondering if there was some story I didn't know. Those are all reasonable questions.  I brought up the lack of a second source in the TSN/MLS in another post on here from the pod yesterday.  

As for the no win part, it seems it's no win generally for the CPL on here.  It takes too long complain but if they rushed and it failed there would be complaining lol.  Add in the pro/rel people, anti draft people, the pro/anti NASL/USL/MLS people, etc and it seems like no one will be happy on the board lol.

The funny thing is yeah it's taken a long time from the original report with nothing really concrete but in reality how many people truly care?  The fifty or so of us who fill this up for 137 pages and counting? For 99.999999% of Canadians it'll most likely be, "Huh, a Canadian soccer league has formed.  That's interesting"

I'm as guilty as everyone else on here.  I spend way too much time at work checking the board and this thread out especially.  But the formation of the league is important to me and in my opinion to the future success of the Men's program.  I'm patient though.  Anyways back to work

This is a key perspective: the delays only seem significant because we pay way closer attention than the vast majority of the market

IIRC, planning for MLS began in 1988, was announced in 1993, only had official signatures from ownership groups in 1995, and finally launched in 1996 after being delayed a full season. 

That really doesn't sound much different than what we've been hearing, and I suspect there were plenty of people in the small niche actually paying attention that would have been bellyaching in 1992

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24 minutes ago, red card said:

Aside from Soccer Night in Canada, MLS on CBC will mean less MLS on TV. I can't see CBC showing every Whitecaps game and majority of TFC matches on tv like TSN has done. And Radio Canada isn't likely to be showing all Impact matches like TVA.

I'm assuming Sportsnet will still carry some TFC matches. But CBC will likely kick the rest of matches like a 10 pm EST Whitecaps to online streams. It could even include showing playoffs online since I can't see CBC TV carrying MLS on 2 straight weeknights.

Plus, as noted by many, unlikely any non-Canadian matches will be shown. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Sportsnet picks up the extra games but shoves it on SN1 or SN360.  Other than the Jays what do they have after the playoffs.  CBC could stream a lot hopefully since it's free.

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