When Canadian media outlets cover the rise of soccer’s popularity they generally frame the issue as a battle versus hockey, implying that one sport can only gain ground at the expense of the other. This angle makes sense, given how hockey pulls at many Canadians’ heartstrings.
In the U.S., however, soccer and hockey occupy different places on the sporting landscape. South of the border they often ask when, not if, soccer will dislodge hockey from its coveted spot in the “Big Four” professional leagues along with basketball, baseball, and the NFL.
Those hoping for such an outcome may have to wait a little longer.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
The NHL remains a poor cousin to the Big Three, in terms of revenue, fan interest and media coverage, but it received a big boost yesterday from reports the league has signed a 10-year U.S. broadcast agreement with Comcast and NBC, worth about $2 billion over 10 years.
That $200 million per year pales compared to the billions the Big Three earn from television partners, but it is far and above what MLS gets from ESPN and Fox. In addition, television now represents another major fault-line separating these two sports. The NHL has thrown its hat in with the new NBC/Comcast cable sports venture, which will battle ESPN, a well-publicized backer of soccer both at the MLS level and internationally.
Demographics are certainly on soccer's side, or so says conventional wisdom. Based on the players, the fans in attendance and the geographical areas hockey enjoys popularity - the Northeast and the Midwest - it is obvious the NHL is primarily marketed to and enjoyed by white people. A demographic shrinking rapidly in terms of its overall percentage of the U.S. population.
Conversely, MLS has long identified the exploding Hispanic demographic as a massive growth area. Yet the franchises in situations and/or locations best suited to attract Hispanic supporters are some of the league’s worst performing. The MLS ratings on ESPN Deportes are abysmal - about 80,000 people watched the MLS season opener - compared to the millions that will tune in on Univision to watch Mexico in the Gold Cup this June. And while its purely anecdotal, on a recent road trip through central California I noticed that any football being discussed on Spanish radio was football that was taking place in Mexico.
So if Mexican and Central American immigrants aren’t warming to MLS, the question remains whether their U.S.-born children will, or whether they will become enamoured by the NBA or the NFL, which itself has seen a huge surge in popularity in Mexico.
There is a finite amount of fan eyeballs, advertising dollars and collective attention any one market has to offer its pro sports leagues, which is why perceptions are so important. The NBC/NHL deal will do a great deal to cement hockey's place as a Big Four sport for several years to come. Overall awareness of soccer as a game, especially at the international level, has made tremendous strides over the past decade throughout North America. But the domestic game has a ways to go before it surpasses its ice-puck-and-stick based counterpart in the United States, nevermind in Canada.