There were a few ‘buried ledes’ in the CSA media presentation held Thursday that outlined the organization’s strategic blueprint for the future. The big one obviously was the official announcement Canada would organize a bid for the 2026 World Cup. Futhermore, CSA president Victor Montagliani spoke to CSN writer Daniel Squizzato (in his other writing capacity) about the men’s program placing a priority on the 2016 Summer Games in Brazil; and looking to the future rather than fretting about dips in Canada’s Fifa ranking. His exact quote: “If you’re ranked 85th and you get into the Hex, [your ranking] doesn’t really matter to anybody, at the end of the day.”
That’s an eyebrow-raising comment, because as Fifa rankings released last week show, Canada sits 11th in Concacaf, only just ahead of regional welterweights Guatemala and the Dominican Republic. And it's where Canada ranks relative to the 12th spot that will have a critical impact on the next World Cup qualifying draw.
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One one hand, many people feel the Fifa rankings are stupid, in that they seem to do a poor job evaluating the true quality of many sides. But assuming that Concacaf orders proceedings in a similar manner to the 2014 qualifying process, the rankings do very much matter. The draw for the second round of World Cup qualifying would take place in the spring of 2015, before the Gold Cup. Teams ranked one through six in the region would get a free ride through, while the remaining 24 teams (after some were axed in a first round of home-and-away qualifying) go into six pots of four nations each based on their Fifa ranking within Concacaf at the time of the draw.
I recently exchanged a series of emails with long-time national team watcher Kevin Elder, as part of an idea to shine more light on how Fifa rankings affect Canada. The Ottawa resident offers a stark assessment of the situation. “The real danger is if Canada slips further down the rankings so we are not in the top pot. Last time they were teams 7-12, the catch is that only the group winner got out last time so if Canada slipped to 13 we may have to go through Jamaica just to make round three.”
And there's the rub. In June of 2011 Canada managed to advance in a group that featured Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia. But man, it was painful at times. Imagine Canada getting dropped in a group alongside – for example – Jamaica, El Salvador, Cuba or, Guatemala. While that wouldn't be a total catastrophe, it would certainly be a severely pressing concern. Remember, Canada would need to win this group, not just finish in the top two. Put your hand up if you're comfortable with Canada's advancement at this pathetically early stage hanging on an away trip to San Salvador or Guatemala City.
The Fifa ranking system seems a Byzantine mess, but it’s actually not that complicated. Points are only awarded for official Fifa friendlies and official Fifa competitions, like World Cup qualifiers or the Gold Cup. This means Canada’s only hope to earn points ahead of March 2015 are official friendlies. The matches are weighted based on importance, and the region and relative strength of the two teams. Just remember, a team receives zero points for losing.
We’re not sure how the Concacaf qualifying process will go, but if you require incentive to sit through Canada friendlies perhaps it helps to think of them as being part of a long, drawn out league whose table is the Fifa rankings inside Concacaf. A table in which Canada desperately doesn’t want to slip lower than 12th. The current precarious position raises questions for the CSA. Do you schedule friendlies against easier opponents that, while offering fewer points and providing a meeker challenge, also make it easier to put at some distance between Canada and 13th spot?
It’s fine to speak about the long game and the virtues of having patience for the future, but there’s another saying, one about looking after the minutes and the hours taking care of themselves that might actually be more applicable to Canada’s immediate situation. Canada needs Fifa points, and it needs them this year.