The corpse of Canada’s 2014 World Cup Qualifying campaign is barely four weeks cold. And almost since the final whistle (or if we're being fair, the second Honduras goal) of Canada's catastrophic 8-1 loss in San Pedro Sula I've been wondering what awaits supporters who stick around the men’s national team to cheer for them in World Cup qualifying four years from now. And I'm not the only one.
In the meantime, the CSA has named Tony Fonseca its new technical director. And while the impact of his work won’t be felt for a few World Cup qualifying cycles, the list of players below illustrates painfully how much work he has cut out for him. Fair warning: the future is bleak. The group that will attempt to qualify Canada for the 2018 World Cup in Russia will likely consist of one batch of unproven youngsters supplemented by another batch of players who weren't good enough to qualify for 2014. Almost without exception, four years on, they will not be as good as they are now.
I expect Canada will enter qualifying for the 2018 World Cup carrying some of the lowest expectations of the past two decades. And for a Canadian international men’s side, that’s saying something.
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There’s been a lot written about the things needed to fix Canadian soccer -- the CSA needs more corporate cash, long-term player development needs an overhaul, a national division II or III league needs an established framework, youth coaching needs standards and training -- but none of these changes could possibly affect the 2018 qualifying campaign. That’s not to say they aren’t important, obviously they are as important as it gets when it comes to Canadian soccer. But the decision that will most affect how the theoretical mish-mash of players below does in World Cup qualifying will be the one that names the man to manage them.
A caveat before we continue. This process -- identifying eleven starting players who will lead us into the third round of World Cup qualifying in 2016* -- is wildly speculative. One only need look at the eleven players who started for Canada against Jamaica at BMO Field in August 2008 to ascertain that. Four years ago, nobody was thinking about Simeon Jackson or Milan Borjan or Pedro Pacheco. Players on the Canadian men’s team come from nowhere and fade into obsolescence just as easily. Some of these picks are nothing beyond my own hairbrain fantasies. Please don’t slam your keyboard and yell at your screen about how so-and-so could possibly have been missed. And besides, this isn't a full roster but merely a starting eleven and a few subs, so there's room for others.
We’ve got a ways to go, I’m just offering an extremely early peek about what might await us.
Lucas Cavallini
Currently: Striker at Juventud de Las Piedras; Uruguay 1st division.
Age in 2016: 23
More than any other young Canadian player I’ve watched, Lucas Cavallini offers something to desperate Canadian supporters that’s in short supply. Hope. He impressed with the U23’s in Olympic qualifying last summer and has embarked on a cautiously impressive start to life in the Uruguayan league with three goals in seven appearances so far. I like his ability to genuinely trouble an opposing defence. It’s been so long since Canada had a player they could count on to do that. Cavallini is already a beast and I would like nothing more for him to grow into the focal point of Canada’s attack in the years to come. But - as will be a running theme - he’s young, and there’s as of yet no telling how he will turn out. He may never play more than a handful of games for Canada and I’ve got him slotted as the player around which the team bases its attack. That says a lot.
Atiba Hutchinson
Currently: Makeshift rightback at PSV Eindhoven; Dutch first division.
Age in 2016: 33
Hutchinson represents the other group of players referenced in the preamble. It’s highly unlikely Hutchinson will be as good in 2016 as he is now. He probably won’t be playing at such a high-level club either. But unlike Dwayne de Rosario or Julian de Guzman I’m not ready to shuffle him out of Canada’s midfield just yet. I think some form of continuity is important and he’ll be one of the players to provide it.
Keven Aleman
Currently: Forward in Real Valladolid youth side; La Liga.
Age in 2016: 22
A bigger flyer than Cavallini, here’s to hoping that Aleman can become the player many of Canada’s supporters want him to become earlier than expected. At times he’s been a bright attacking lights with Canada’s youth teams and if he can stick in Spain then he definitely deserves to be in the Canada team. He’s playing for the youth team of a recently promoted La Liga club. So that's good I guess. I’ve not been able to find any reliable online reports about his progress, but at this point anything and nothing could happen to him.
Simeon Jackson
Currently: Sparingly used sub at Norwich City; Premier League.
Age in 2016: 29
What will become of Simeon Jackson? He remains one of my favourite Canada players, but it’s almost impossible to say where his career will go over the following four seasons. I want to say that he’ll become a regular in the Premier League, but he could just as easily be scraping it out in the English lower divisions by the time the next World Cup qualifying cycle looms. Again, I include him for continuity and for the fact I believe he wants one more shot to qualify for a World Cup with Canada.
Samuel Piette
Currently: Midfielder in Fortuna Düsseldorf youth side; Bundesliga.
Age in 2016: 21
Speculative pick again. He’s simply way too young for us to know whether he’ll turn into the midfield bulldog we hope he can. The fact he’s already earned a senior callup means he’s included here but other than scenes from my own imagination of how he’ll form an effective defensive midfield partnership with the following player I don’t see a whole lot of reality-based evidence that we should be overly excited about him.
Will Johnson
Currently: Midfielder with Real Salt Lake; MLS.
Age in 2016: 29
Johnson is a solid midfielder who plays at a reasonably high level and will probably still be able to earn a paycheque in MLS four years from now. Again, nothing to get excited about but given the dearth of other options he’s definitely in my starting XI of the future.
Marcel de Jong
Currently: Leftback with Augsberg; Bundesliga
Age in 2016: 29
If there is a current Canadian player who could be looked on to improve in four years time, de Jong might be the one. He just turned 26 and has earned regular playing time in the Bundesliga over the last two seasons. Whether he slots in at leftback where he plays with his club or somewhere in the midfield, I hope de Jong can mature to a point where he becomes more of an impact player for Canada. He doesn't appear to be having a flyer this season in Germany from what I've read, so let's hope that's not a signal of where his career is headed.
Andrés Fresenga
Currently: Defender with Racing Club de Montevideo (youth or reserve team?); Uruguay 1st division.
Age in 2016: 24
Another longshot. A long longshot. The general consensus around Fresenga among those who follow Canada closely was that he impressed enough in last summer's U23 Olympic team to be considered a name for the future. I've not had much luck finding online evidence of his progress in Uruguay this season though (in fact I can't even find reference to him on the Racing home page) and his inclusion here probably has more to do with my longstanding desire to see more Latin American-based players in the Canada lineup.
David Edgar
Currently: Defender with Burnley; English second division.
Age in 2016: 29
Despite having something of a stinker at rightback in Canada's 2-0 loss in Panama City last September, the overall consensus on Edgar and the 2014 campaign should be one tinged with pleasant surprise. He may not have fulfilled the expectations he placed on himself after scoring against Manchester United in the Premier League almost six years ago, but he certainly has developed into a solid Championship defender. Given his age and experience it would be shocking if he didn't play a major role in the 2018 qualifying go-round.
Andre Hainault
Currently: Defender with Houston; MLS.
Age in 2016: 30
Rumours about Hainault heading to Bordeaux or wherever else in Ligue 1 pop up every once in awhile. I'd welcome this move based soley on logic that more Canadian national team members playing at a higher level in Europe the better. It's probably unrealistic though. Hainault is a decent MLS player now and will probably remain so in four years time. Given the options there is every reason he should continue for Canada, most likely in the centre of defence.
Milan Borjan
Currently: Goalkeeper with Sivasspor; Turkish 1st division.
Age in 2016: 29
Ah Milan. Or, as he's known on Twitter, @mr_zombie. You came from nowhere (ok, Serbia) and if you didn't quite play yourself into the hearts of Canadian supporters over the past couple of years you earned plenty of affection for your enthusiasm and willingness to choose the Maple Leaf ahead of other theoretical options. Canada's most experienced option in net moving forward.
Subs
Ashtone Morgan
Currently: Leftback with TFC; MLS.
Age in 2016: 25
Four years on, the great Canadian MLS academy hope has not quite established himself as Canada’s first-choice leftback. But he's damn close. I’ll refer to CSN’s own 2012 player report card here to provide a sense of the future: Morgan continues to improve technically (although he’s still more of an athlete) and should be an important part of TFC for years ahead. The only part about this I don’t like is the “athlete” part. Canada needs players with ability on the ball at all positions. Let’s hope Morgan continues to improve in the way Duane Rollins thinks he will.
Tosaint Ricketts
Currently: Striker with Vålerenga; Norway 1st division
Age in 2016: 29
Russell Tiebert
Currently: Midfielder with Vancouver Whitecaps; MLS.
Age in 2016: 23
Doneil Henry
Currently: Defender with TFC; MLS.
Age in 2016: 23
Roberto Stillo
Currently: Third-string keeper with Genoa; Serie
Age in 2016: 25
So there we have it. My intent is not to be overly pessimistic, but more to show that four years is both a long way off and at the same time not that long off at all. Sure, a Jonathan de Guzman or a David Hoilett could liven things up in the interim but it's a fool's errand to sit around hoping for that. Hell, if that diamond jubilee or whatever-it-is Copa America goes off as planned in the U.S. in 2016, World Cup qualification might be the least of our worries. Imagine the above 11 players taking on Argentina in a group stage match at the MetLife stadium. We'll pray for 8-1. So there, that's kind of a positive spin. In the meantime, here's to another good draw, a yet-unidentified but brilliant manager, diamonds in the rough and a couple of goddam headers that bounce off the post and go IN for a change.
*Obviously this break with the old guard won't be quite as clean as I'm making it out to be. Between now and the third round of Concacaf qualifying in 2016 (assuming the format holds) we'll have friendlies, two Gold Cups and a minnow-round of World Cup qualifying to get through and the transition will probably be piecemeal than all at once. I chose 2016 because it's the time World Cup qualifying generally gets serious in Concacaf.