Yes, while most of you are enjoying a day off to paint your insides with turkey-and-gravy-coloured relaxation, we've taken the time to figure out what all of the possible outcomes of Tuesday's games would mean for Canada's chances of advancing to the third round of World Cup qualifying in CONCACAF.
Now, sure, the results thus far would suggest Canada's likely to run the table in the six-game second round. But remember, nothing is ever guaranteed in Canadian soccer. Ever. Even so, here's what may happen next...
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If Canada beats Puerto Rico by any score:
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and St. Lucia beats St. Kitts and Nevis by any score, Canada wins the group and advances.
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and St. Lucia draws with St. Kitts and Nevis, Canada essentially wins the group; the only possible way we don't is if St. Kitts and Nevis beats us twice in November and runs up the score (overall goal differential is the first tiebreaker; we're currently at +13, while St. Kitts and Nevis is at +2).
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and St. Kitts and Nevis beats St. Lucia, Canada needs just one point from its final two games (both against St. Kitts and Nevis) to win the group. Yep, we could stumble through with a draw and a loss.
- Puerto Rico is eliminated, no matter the result of the other game. St. Lucia has already been eliminated.
If Canada draws with Puerto Rico:
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and St. Lucia beats St. Kitts and Nevis by any score OR St. Lucia draws with St. Kitts and Nevis, Canada needs one point from its final two games to win the group.
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and St. Kitts and Nevis beats St. Lucia by any score, it's (moderately) squeaky bum time. Canada needs two points from its final two games. So, two draws (or one win) against St. Kitts and Nevis would do it.
- Puerto Rico is eliminated, no matter the result of the other game.
If Canada loses to Puerto Rico:
- EVERYBODY PANIC
- No, seriously. I will.
- Alright, once you've calmed down, consider this:
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if St. Lucia beats St. Kitts and Nevis, then things get complicated. Canada would need two wins in its final two games to guarantee group victory. They could do it with less than two wins (with as little as a single point, theoretically), but if you assume Puerto Rico will beat St. Lucia in its last two games, then Canada can't afford to falter.
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if St. Lucia draws with St. Kitts and Nevis, things are slightly worse. A point in two games would be enough to keep St. Kitts and Nevis at bay (unless their win against us is by a ridiculous score, such as 10-0). Puerto Rico is, again, the big variable.
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if St. Kitts and Nevis beats St. Lucia, it's true squeaky bum time. The table would read Canada 9, St. Kitts and Nevis 8, Puerto Rico 5. One win in the last two games would be needed to clinch the group.
(Realistic) best-case scenario:
Canada rolls over Puerto Rico to get to 12 points and eliminate them, while St. Kitts and Nevis gets past St. Lucia to go to eight. From that point on, one single, measly, stinking, solitary point in two games against a country of just over 50,000 people would be enough to advance.
(Realistic) worst-case scenario:
St. Kitts and Nevis gets past St. Lucia, but Puerto Rico -- knowing its World Cup life is on the line -- grabs an early lead and then bunkers enough to somehow hold onto a draw. But even then, our advancement is contingent upon gaining that single, measly, stinking, solitary point. (Edited, 4:01 p.m.: Clearly I didn't read my own post; Canada would need two points in this scenario, not just one. So, two draws or one win in two games against St. Kitts and Nevis. Still, not exactly red-alert emergency stuff.)
The bottom line:
Barring a meltdown of cataclysmic proportions at BMO Field on Tuesday night, Canada will -- for all intents and purposes -- have advancement to the next round sewn up with two games left to go. (That is, of course, barring a pair of cataclysmic meltdowns in the group's final two games).
Sure, I know I said nothing is guaranteed in Canadian soccer... but by the end of Tuesday night, moving on in this qualification cycle will be a virtual lock.
Dear God, I hope I don't have to eat those words.
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