The soccer gods, as usual, have not been kind to Canada.
As was announced Tuesday, the women's national team (ranked #7 in the world) finds itself in a tough-but-not-impassable Olympic group with Japan (reigning World Cup champs), Sweden (ranked #5 in the world) and South Africa (umm... all nice people, I'm sure), needing a second-place finish to guarantee passage to the quarterfinals of the 12-team tournament.
In a way, this draw mirrors Canada's draw at the 2011 World Cup: opening against a global powerhouse (in 2011, it was Germany) before meeting a perceived pushover (2011: Nigeria) and a strong-but-supposedly-beatable peer (2011: France). Well, we all remember how that turned out... but those memories, and today's tricky draw, aren't tempering head coach John Herdman's long-held optimism about Canada's Olympic chances.
"Out of the groups, we've got a tough one but it's certainly doable," Herdman said Tuesday. "We have to be able to beat these teams, and on our day, with the right mindset, and if we can tactically get it right and the players have put in the right preparation over these three months, then I think we have a chance (to contend for a medal)."
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Now, as Herdman admits, that's easier said than done. He concedes that Japan is a "special" team, "in a bit of a league of their own at the moment", and it's tough to disagree based on their last 12 months of form. With South Africa largely an enigma at this point (though Herdman said they could be "dangerous"), the make-or-break game will be against Sweden.
"They're very close in terms of how we play, our styles," said Herdman, who noted that Canada has picked up plenty of insight from a slew of recent meetings with the Swedes. "That's the tournament-breaker for us, the game against Sweden becomes the real do-or-die game."
Herdman, as many of his players do when discussing opponents, differentiates between Tier 1 squads (top 5 in the world, the real big guns) and Tier 2 squads (those on the periphery, a group in which Canada places itself).
"We can more than compete, we can consistently win against (Tier 2) teams and also play quite a good brand of football," said Herdman. "But against (Tier 1) teams... we found it really difficult to break them down. We're very clear, if we want to get on the podium, we have to be a lot more decisive with our possession, and in certain parts of the pitch we need to be able to break down that zonal block that will be put down in front of us."
To that end, Herdman said the return to the roster of midfielder Diana Matheson could be a game-changer.
"Diana's key, she has so much experience," he said. "Her technique, she has that ability to play one-touch football and see things other players don't see. If she keeps working hard and is in prime physical shape, she could be an integral part of taking this team to the next level."
As for fellow returnee Jonelle Filigno, Herdman isn't quite as optimistic.
"It's a tough challenge for Jonelle, she's come back after almost eight months out of the game, trying to be ready for the biggest event," he said. "She's still in a bit of pain from her injury and operations; certainly you're not seeing her at her peak yet."
While Filigno can be a massive boost to the team when healthy, Herdman said he would need to weigh his roster decisions based not just on a player's potential or future, but on who is performing the best in pre-tournament preparations. Filigno's contributions at the Olympics, then, will depend heavily on how well her recovery and re-incorporation into the Canadian setup go over the next few months. But, says Herdman: "I think she can get there."
The team continues its training camp in Vancouver before getting a week off, heading back into camp and then flying out to Moncton for a friendly against China on May 30. Lots to be decided between then and now, of course -- and at the Olympic Games themselves.
And while Big Red will need to be in top form to contend for a medal at London 2012, who knows... maybe this will be the time that the soccer gods finally do smile on Canada.
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