FIFA has maintained its Women's World Ranking for just over 10 years now.*
In that time, Germany has never been ranked lower than #3 in the world. They've been ranked #1 or #2 on the planet for 90% of that time, including on the most-recent rankings (March 2013) and presumably on the next set of rankings, set to be released on Friday. They've also won two Women's World Cup titles and two Olympic medals (a pair of bronzes).
Canada has been ranked in the top 10 for less than half of that time, peaking at #6 in March 2011 -- though the team has been ranked at #7 for the last year and a half. The shining tournament performances have been a fourth place finish at the 2003 Women's World Cup and, of course, last summer's Olympic bronze.
All of this would have been interesting information to have ahead of Wednesday's friendly between the two squads, in an attempt to guess what was going to happen. But even after the fact, it helps contextualize an outcome that should realistically not have come as much of a surprise to anyone (except for, perhaps, the fact the Germans only managed to find the back of the net once).
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Another telling piece of info is that Canada has never earned a result against the Germans, with 11 losses in 11 all-time meetings. That being said, there was still the chance, late in Wednesday's match, that some piece of individual magic would have earned Big Red that first result -- even if such a tally would have been against the run of play. That's the advantage of keeping a game close -- being outplayed doesn't ultimately matter if you can find a way to steal a result (see: Canada v. France, last two meetings).
Even the most rose-coloured-glasses-wearing of the CanWNT faithful will readily concede that Germany controlled Wednesday's game in front of a lively home crowd. It's no insult to the Canadian players to admit that; after all, as we've empirically established, Germany is very, very good at women's soccer -- and has been for a long time.
That's not to say the Canadians weren't up for the challenge on Wednesday. The game featured a good number of crunching tackles and painful moments (among them, Sophie Schmidt getting clobbered twice in quick succession, Carmelina Moscato butting heads with a German opponent and Christine Sinclair getting her foot maliciously stomped while awaiting a free kick).
And as head coach John Herdman said after the game, had Diana Matheson converted an early opportunity, the entire tenor of the affair would have been changed.
As it was, the Germans could easily have padded their lead had posts not been hit (they were), incisive crosses been just slightly mis-hit or barely missed by attackers (they were) or if Canadian goalkeeper Erin McLeod hadn't had an outstanding performance that served to further support Herdman's faith in her as the team's #1 goalkeeper (she did).
But they didn't. So we're left with a 1-0 scoreline that doesn't reflect the disparity in other categories, such as shots, corners and time of possession. Then again, the 1-0 scoreline in the 2012 Olympic bronze-medal game didn't really reflect the run of play either -- difference being, we were the beneficiaries that time.
All told, regardless of the result, the game was exactly what we knew it was all along: Another step on the road to the 2015 Women's World Cup. Herdman has spoken about the need to bridge the gap between the generation of players that earned that surprising bronze in London and the generation that will carry the team through the next few WWC/Olympic cycles.
To that end, he's taking a blended integration approach that has so far yielded some decent results. Contrary to what some may say (and this applies to both the men's and women's national team at the present moment), the idea of completely cutting ties with the existing generation of established players is naive and would surely prove disastrous. Had Herdman decided to field an all under-23 lineup against the Germans on Wednesday, sure, more youngsters would have gotten experience against a world-class team -- but what harm would the surely-lopsided scoreline have done to the team's psyche?
Instead, we saw two newcomers earn starts -- Kadeisha Buchanan, the teenage centreback who is unquestionably the team's most encouraging success story of the year and a mainstay of the team for years to come, and Melissa Busque, who earned her first senior-team cap with hard work during training camp and who showed some promise during the 90 minutes (even if she likely could have done better on a second-half chance set up by a Sinclair pass).
Rachel Melhado also earned her first senior-team cap as a second-half sub, while Adriana Leon and Danica Wu continued their transition from the U20 team to the senior squad. Are these players all going to be a factor heading into 2015? We don't know. But did any of them look hopelessly out of place against a strong, organized German side on the day? No, they didn't.
Herdman can't wave a magic wand to produce a new crop of top-level-ready players. The next generation will come from somewhere, of course. Whether they're currently in the youth ranks, or Canadians playing abroad who've slipped under the radar to this point, or some combination of the two remains to be seen. But the only way Herdman will know for sure is to keep doing exactly what was done on Wednesday: Play games against top-quality opposition, to provide a stern test, and give players reasonable opportunities to show what they can do.
Of course, the only game Canada currently has on its calendar is a friendly against South Korea in Edmonton in October. And the nearly year-long gap between the team's scintillating Olympic run and its return to Canadian soil seemed like a terrible waste of the goodwill and excitement generated by the bronze medal win.
So we can wring our hands about the difference in shots on goal, or passes completed, or the fact that Germany has the depth to bring in a player who was short-listed for the Ballon d'Or in 2010 as a sub. But if we're going to wring our hands about those facts and figures, then we can't ignore the main concern of those who obsess over statistics: Sample size.
In London, we saw what a Canadian team can do when the stars align and the right performances coalesce with the right circumstances. At the last Women's World Cup, we saw the exact opposite. And the rest of the team's recent history has been, quite frankly, a mixed bag.
So which team is the "real" Canada? What are our realistic chances of making noise at the World Cup on Canadian soil (err, turf) in less than two years' time? What do we really have in the likes of newcomers such as Leon, Buchanan, Busque and Wu?
To know the answer, we need more games. Herdman needs more games, and the players need more games. There's no guarantee playing more games will mean better results. But it will at least provide an opportunity to more accurately calibrate our expectations around the team, as the London bronze-medal drifts further and further into the past.
If you're interested, here are the respective rankings the two countries have had on each installment of the FIFA rankings since 2003:
Germany: 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2
Canada: 12, 12, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 11, 11, 12, 12, 13, 12, 11, 10, 11, 10, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 11, 11, 11, 13, 12, 11, 13, 9, 6, 8, 9, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7
.