Canada’s most loyal supporters have been hard at it for a week already, enthusiastically debating the merits of the yet-again revamped qualification process Concacaf will use to determine which countries from the region head to the 2014 World Cup.
For those who don’t live and breathe the minutiae of Canadian soccer but remain interested in an early look at what awaits the men's national team on the path to Brazil 2014, you have three choices: 1) check out this detailed forum thread dissecting the latest proposed format; 2) listen to the new Some Canadian Guys podcast during which we bandy back and forth about what the changes mean for Canada’s chances; or 3) read the guide below that gives the gist of what to expect.
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The Background
After proposing substantial changes to the qualifying format last year, Concacaf scaled back those plans when FIFA last month denied the confederation its coveted fourth guaranteed spot at the World Cup. Concacaf heavy Chuck Blazer confirmed to Mexican reporters last week what the latest plan looks like. It is starkly similar to what was used previously.
June 2011: Minnow round
This won't involve Canada. A quick two-leg, home-and-away playoff played by the lowest-ranked teams in the region to see who advances on to the next round.
September to November 2011: The first round
Six groups of four countries play a home-and-away, round-robin format
Only the winner of each group advances to the next round
The region’s top-six ranked sides receive a bye
Canada will be placed in a group with so-called regional minnows, countries like St. Kitts, Guyana or Barbados and be reasonably expected to crush said countries in every match played. A good thing too, because only the group winner moves on. There is, however, a banana peel on the ground somewhere in the form of a country like Guatemala, who Canada could be drawn in a group with. Nope, Guatemala is not FC Barcelona, but in a regional context they are decent and could very well beat Canada at home. Then things would get dicey, because even if Canada won the corresponding home fixture, the winner of the group would likely be decided by which of those two countries beat up on the others by a bigger margin. The rule of thumb with Canadian soccer is that if there’s a chance something bad will happen, it probably will. That said, failure to advance beyond this stage of qualifying - no matter who's in Canada’s group - would be an utter disaster.
June to October 2012: The second round
Three groups of four countries play a home-and-away round robin, with the groups made up ofthe aforementioned top-ranked six teams plus the winners of the groups in the previous round
Top two countries in each group advance
For those new to Canada and how it navigates World Cup qualification, this round represents the bread and butter, the red meat, the brass tax, the money shot or whatever other metaphor you prefer to describe something of importance. There are no easy matches at this stage and it is where Canada generally fails. Powerhouses U.S. and Mexico will be in separate groups, as will Honduras, who in my opinion represent the early favourite to claim the third guaranteed World Cup spot. Beyond the top-seeded country, each group will contain at least two (and in some cases three) other nations culled from Concacaf’s glut of evenly matched middle powers - the Costa Rica’s, Trinidad and Tobago’s, El Salvador’s, Guatemala’s, Jamaica’s and yes, Canada’s of the world. To put it simply, each group will contain at least three (relatively speaking) good teams trying to squeeze themselves into only two spots.
February to October 2013: The Hex
One group of six countries made up of the aforementioned top-two finishers from each group
Same deal, round-robin format, home and away
Top three finishers automatically go to Brazil 2014, while the fourth place side goes into a two-legged playoff against a team from a yet-to-be-announced confederation
At this point, the Hex has to be Canada’s minimum goal. Failing again at the second round will be a major disappointment, and represent zero tangible progress in the past four years (I say tangible because there’s a lot of good things happening in Canadian soccer right now that won’t bear fruit until at least the next round of World Cup qualifying).
This round of Concacaf qualifying represents some of the most exciting and desperate soccer you will watch anywhere. Central Americans take World Cup qualification fanatically seriously. British football writers often trot out the hackneyed cliche “cauldron” to describe pretty much any continental stadium that’s round-shaped, located somewhere kind of warm and filled with noisier supporters than those found in Britain. But some of the Central American locals that house this stage of the tournament actually do the word “cauldron” justice.
For starters it’s hot, tropical hot. It looks so humid that you generally start to develop an uncomfortable sweat just watching on television. The stadiums aren't particularly modern, never mind state-of-the-art, and the seating seems to be by vague suggestion rather than assignment. Combine that with the over-the-top aggressiveness players display when protesting every single call the referee makes, and the entire proceeding feels like it could descend into chaos at any moment. I often wonder if opposing players don’t periodically glance up into the stands and convince themselves they’ll be torn limb for limb before the final whistle.
As for Canada’s chances at this stage? Despite what you may read elsewhere, the pure talent gap with other middling nations isn’t that large, and finishing in the top three or four wouldn’t require a miracle. However, it would definitely require this group of Canadian players to come up with six consecutive games-of-their-lives over a 10-month period, and that is unlikely.
But Canada and Canadian supporters should worry about that stage when it arrives, and in the meantime focus on the fact that -- assuming FIFA approves this latest Concacaf proposal (and though I have zero informed insight onto the process, I can't see why they wouldn't) -- qualification for the 2014 World Cup kicks off in five short months!