A lot of faith, and perhaps even more expectations, were placed on the shoulders of Martin Rennie when he took over as the Whitecaps head coach for this season.
Were we wrong to expect too much from a young manager untested at the top level? Has he started to crack under the pressure? Or does Rennie have the rest of the West just where he wants them?
It’s been a strange old season for the Whitecaps so far.
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Comfortably sitting in a playoff spot all year, the Caps still have a five point cushion over their nearest rivals Dallas, with a game in hand.
A great start to the season, with a MLS record for clean sheets, made the team hard to beat and especially strong at home. A bad run of form, long road trips and squad upheaval, have seen a downturn in fortunes in the second half.
The odds of the Caps making the post-season in their second year in MLS are still around 90%, and anywhere from second to fifth spot is still realistically attainable.
At the start of the year, most fans would have been very happy with fifth place and any post-season action.
Yet if you were to read fan message boards, twitter and the papers, you’d think that the Whitecaps had blown it and the players will soon be planning some rounds of golf in November.
That’s just being a football fan of course. We’re a jittery lot at the best of times and maybe it’s all my years of watching lower league football, but you become very pessimistic, always fearing the worst. Of course, when you support a lower league team, that’s also what you usually get!
Martin Rennie is also under the spotlight like never before and he seems to be handling the pressure and scrutiny well, at least on the outside. He’s also a manager that will gladly take all the flak and shield his players.
Rennie gave an interesting interview to the media after Monday’s training, where he seemed rather bemused at people’s lack of faith in the ability of him and the team, and tried to spin that's it not really all that bad right now:
<i>"It was a good weekend for me in the sense to look at everything and a bit of perspective.
I don't usually read too much media stuff but I read some of it. It was 'look the Whitecaps have only picked up this many points in the last number of games' and all this.
So one of the things I looked at was over the last 11 games, which is the games people were looking at, we've picked up 11 points. That's not amazing.
So then I looked, how does that compare to say the best teams in the League. So you look at say, San Jose, 17 points in the last 11 games, and they're winning the Supporters Shield by quite a distance.
Then I looked at Seattle, who are on an incredible run, everyone would admit that, doing fantastic. They're challenging for that title, they've got 18 points in the last 11 games.
So 11 points in the last 11 games doesn't sound great, but it's actually not that bad. There's multiple teams that have got a lot less than the teams I've just mentioned and ourselves, so that helped me get it in perspective."</i>
This was all a little bizarre, as the comparisons he mentioned just went to show how poor the Caps have been doing and why they're falling behind in the West. I'm really not that sure what perspective he was taking out of that.
Looking at Real Salt Lake's 11 points from their last eleven games would have been the better perspective and make a lot more sense. Even more so, looking at Dallas' 18 points from their last 11 games would have let us see why we're now in a potential mess if we don't stop the slump soon. Even Chivas have 13 points from their last 11 games and they're crap.
Rennie went on to explain that the Whitecaps were actually in a better position after the Portland defeat, because they had the same points cushion but with one less game to play.
Straws well and truly clutched.
Or is it a deliberate psychological ploy to focus the team on <i>"a lot of things to be excited and positive about"</i>. I'm not sure what they are, but Rennie seems to.
Is does lead us to ask, is Rennie going to do a Keegan?
For those that don’t know what that means, in summary, the pressure, and Fergie getting into his head, saw Kevin Keegan lose the plot a little as Newcastle manager in a title run in with Man U back in the day. He, and his team, imploded.
I'd recommend to Martin Rennie that he goes back to not reading the media for the next few weeks.
Have we expected too much from Martin Rennie?
He is a young manager, untested at the higher level. If you look at his track record, he has had mixed results as his teams look to close out their seasons.
With the Cascade Surge in 2005, he won the Divisional title, but fell short in the Championship game. In two very successful seasons with Cleveland City Stars, he finished runners up in 2007 and USL2 Champions in 2008.
His three years at Carolina Railhawks saw great regular season success, but failure in the playoffs every season. Last year in particular, the Railhawks seemed to implode in the closing stretch after the announcement that Rennie was coming to Vancouver. We'll never know if it was due to morale, uncertainty or Rennie's management.
His win percentages have been steadily going down as the Leagues get tougher - 72.22% with the Surge, 52.27% with Cleveland, 45.59% with the Railhawks and just 37% with the Caps in MLS action alone.
Could it be that Rennie is a great motivator and builder, but a poor closer?
We still think the Caps will make the playoffs, but the current dip in form is a worry.
What has gone wrong? Too many changes? have other teams found us out? Or is it Rennie's inability to react and change tactics and formations when things aren't going well?
Many are pointing fingers at his dismantling of a winning team mid-season and the subsequent loss of form and points gained.
It was certainly strange.
A lot has been made of Davide Chiumiento’s transfer back to Switzerland. His departure certainly has been felt by the Caps and a little bit of flair has gone from the team right now.
That’s the thing though, it was a little bit of flair and far too inconsistent in his time in Vancouver.
He started last season on fire, then lost confidence and effectiveness when Teitur left. He was a different player this year once he re-established his place back in the starting line-up, but it seemed to take being dropped and a kick up the ass for him to get to that stage.
Could we have kept him here by offering him more money? Probably. Was he worth more money? Possibly, but not what he would have been looking for.
The money Rennie has thrown at our new DP’s Robson and Miller instead have brought out the knives in this department. This will continue as long as they underperform.
We've seen glimpses of what the new look squad can do (San Jose and Salt Lake games). A bit more of that and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
Why would you change a winning team is the big question, and although you can rationale off pretty much every one of the moves, I don't think anything but a deep run in the playoffs is going to keep the majority satisfied.
Maybe we're all missing a step here though and failing to see Martin Rennie's tactical genius.
In our own straw clutching moment now, let us explain why this could all be part of Martin's Masterplan, with phase two kicking in against LA tomorrow.
If you look at the top five teams in the West right now, the game you want is against Real Salt Lake and the two teams you want to avoid are Seattle and LA.
Rennie is resting players against LA tomorrow and a weakened Whitecaps side is unlikely to get anything from the game. This helps LA in their ascent of the table, just like Seattle beating us helped theirs.
Has Rennie looked at the possible match ups and decided that if LA and Seattle can take second and third place in the West, then they can destroy each other in round two of the playoffs?
This would let Vancouver play Real Salt Lake in a one-off first round match, with the winner playing San Jose - a team the Caps have performed well against this season.
Our slump could really work to our advantage after all. We just have to get past Dallas now, which will be helped by resting players, and then try and grab fourth place and a home first round playoff game.
So there are things to be excited and positive about if you squint the right way in the light.
Is Martin Rennie a tactical genius then, or has he simply lost the plot and is struggling to find ways to get us out of our slump?
The jury is still out, but the next few games will make their deliberation a lot easier.
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