In the past, I have often been accused of being hyper-critical and pessimistic of the Whitecaps and their players, so the previous week has taken me by surprise. I shouldn’t be that shocked, as the fickle fans come out of the woodwork when any team in any sport goes on an extended losing streak, but there is a growing swell of fans that are at least willing to entertain the idea of sacking the gaffer.
I find myself feeling the need to plea to fans of the Whitecaps to maintain a level of objectivity. I understand the frustration and disappointment. I feel it too. But let’s not call for Martin Rennie’s head until he’s been given the entire season to turn things around. After all, the Whitecaps have shown noticeable improvements in many areas of the team. Unfortunately, those improvements have not translated to the table.
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It’s extremely unscientific, but consider the pure visual results so far this season.
In Houston, the Whitecaps played well and could have taken three points, and certainly deserved one, but came away with none. Again, a similar story in Chivas, where the Whitecaps probably should have gotten a single point. San Jose made up for it, as the Whitecaps got a single point they didn’t deserve. RSL at home was another game where the Whitecaps dominated and should have won, but only came away with a single point. The home game versus Dallas is another one which could have wound up with a win for the Caps. They took twenty seven bloody shots. Part of that was from being at home and fighting from behind, but still, that’s an unusually high number. So, do the math and that could be as many as seven more points. Seven points would mean the Whitecaps would be two points clear for second in the west.
Reality is though we didn’t earn those points. The Whitecaps are second last in the west, only ahead of Seattle who have a whopping three games in hand and are only three points back. So everything is under a microscope and Rennie is being put on the hot seat. Many have been critical of some of his tactics and selections.
Rennie has certainly mixed it up this season. After 2012, it was obvious that the club needed to find some depth players to rotate in so guys like YP Lee could get a much deserved rest. So, he did. He’s rotated a player or two for rest, and he’s rotated a few to try something new or to send a message.
His only really truly failed attempt at a selection this year was in Dallas. He claimed he was trying to rest some players due to numerous upcoming games, but the additions of Watson and Heinemann reek of Rennie overthinking it and trying to surprise and out coach FC Dallas.
However, Rennie also appears to be learning from his mistakes. Klazura and Harvey did not look out of place, and if his reaction when asked about his away selection of fullbacks is any indication, it appears they will be used more often, especially on the road. Also, he appears to have dealt with young Kekuta Manneh well. After a nervy first match against Toronto, Manneh was pulled back and is now being used to great effect as a super sub to change a game. And let’s not forget Russell Teibert.
Teibert has been the poster boy for the Whitecaps inability to connect the dots between the academy and the first team. Teibert has been moved from his usual left sided position into a central attacking role, and he’s been given the green light to go and impact the game. And he has. Some credit must be given to Rennie for giving Russell the reigns.
Not only that, we lost our skipper and highest paid defender for the season, and lost our highest paid striker with a niggling hamstring injury. Neither are exactly world beaters, but it shouldn’t be surprising that you lose your allegedly best defender and allegedly best attacker and end up having problems finishing chances and errors on marking.
To call for Rennie’s head at this point would be extremely premature. It’s been a mixed bag so far this season, and a bounce here or there and the Whitecaps would be solidly in the fight for tops of the conference. I understand that progress must be made, but there is plenty of season left for the Whitecaps to turn it around.
Now, for one area of the game where there is plenty of evidence to draw a conclusion, it’s set pieces. For whatever the reason, the Whitecaps have been terrible at set pieces since their entry into the MLS. It’s getting to the point where any corner should be taken short and any free kick not taken by Camilo should be a short pass if no other reason than to retain possession.
No greater example of this can be found than last game in Real Salt Lake. The Whitecaps earned six corner kicks and were fouled fourteen times. Of those fourteen fouls, eight resulted in free kicks inside the opponent’s half. It’s reasonable to say that a free kick from inside the opponent’s half is at least a opportunity to get the ball into a dangerous position. So, eight free kicks, and six corner kicks.
Of our fourteen chances, the most significant event was a goal against after Nigel Reo-Coker blasted a free kick long for a goal kick, resulting in a quick break and some shoddy defending resulting in the ball ending up behind Joe Cannon. It’s hard to blame Nigel Reo-Coker, as he’s not usually relied upon for set piece delivery, but after watching Kobayashi, Camilo, and Teibert waste chance after chance, he must have felt like he had to do a little more than his already Superman like performance.
I don’t expect a goal from set pieces every game, but the Whitecaps are entering comically bad territory. Let’s take corner kicks as an example.
A few studies I looked at suggested the average success rate of a corner kick is somewhere between 2.2% to 2.8%.
Last season, the Whitecaps earned 216 corner kicks. From that, they scored three goals. I was fairly liberal in the application of “goals scored from a corner,” as only one of them was a true goal from corner (DeMerit in Chivas,) and one (Bonjour vs New York) was after two failed clearances. That means a slightly below average of 2.16%.
The Whitecaps this season have taken 44 corners in MLS play and scored zero goals. Add in the Voyageur’s Cup, and they’ve taken 56 corners and scored one goal. So, 0% success rate in MLS this season, and 1.79% overall.
Compare this to our corners against in 2013. We’ve conceded 47 corners in MLS action and conceded three times for a 6.38% success rate for our opponents. Add in the Voyageur’s and it’s even worse, as 4 goals in 53 attempts gives you an abysmally bad 7.54%.
This is only for corner kicks. Unfortunately, the statistics are a little harder to compile for free kicks, so I have no numbers to support it, but I’d suggest our free kick numbers are also depressing.
Even on this season’s small sample size, we’re talking about a swing of two or three goals. That’s enough of a difference that we could be talking about breaking away from the log jam in the fight for second in the west.
I don’t know what the answer is, as Camilo and Teibert have both proven to be able to provide good service and O’Brien, Rusin, Mattocks, and Heinemann should be good enough targets that you’d think eventually a set piece would bounce of one of the big guys’ asses and beat a keeper (and hopefully this time the opponents keeper.) But in the end, it is the coaches responsibility to determine the systems on set pieces.
So please, be critical. Be frustrated. Demand better. But let’s be careful what we’re blaming Martin Rennie for, and let’s give him a chance to iron out the kinks before we send him to the EI lineup.
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