Vancouver Whitecaps' loss to Dallas this evening wasn't a huge surprise.
Four defeats in a row, poor away form in general and playing an in-form team fighting for their playoff lives was never looking to be a good mix for the Caps, and so it proved, despite a defensive display that fell just short.
What the loss does is considerably tighten up the battle for the final playoff spot in the West and make for a very tense, nervy and exciting last few weeks of the season for everyone associated with the Caps.
The question on every Whitecaps fan's lips now is what is the magic number for Vancouver to reach their first MLS post-season?
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
Officially, it's <b>49</b>. Realistically, looking at the remaining fixtures, we think it's <b>43</b>, meaning the Caps need to lock in six more points between now and October 27th.
And that should be very doable and a first round tie away to Real Salt Lake should be the reward. But that's a lot of shoulds.
The Whitecaps now have five games remaining, four of them at home. Dallas have four, with three of those away from home.
The maximum number of points that Dallas can now reach is 48. The Caps can get to 52.
For Dallas to reach that number, they need to win all of their remaining games obviously and that includes three away games in a row. It's a tough ask.
The Texans away form is not great, with three wins, two draws and nine losses from their 14 games on the road this season. Factor in that two of those away games are at MLS Leading San Jose and Seattle, and their pickings look slim.
For Dallas, their best hopes of picking up points for the remainder of the season are in the two games against Chivas. They would expect to pick up six points in those matches and that would give them an end of season points total of 42, if they don't pick up anything elsewhere.
With Vancouver failing miserably in every tiebreaker imaginable, that means that 43 would be the target points total. The magic number.
Just six more points from their current tally of 37 should be enough to see the Caps in the playoffs. Two more wins from their last five games.
On paper, that should pose no problems for the Whitecaps. Unfortunately, football is played on grass and turf.
Three of the Caps four home games are against the dregs of the Conference. The bottom three teams who have all failed to make the playoffs.
On home form and league standings, that should be nine points for a team looking to make an impact in the post season.
For me, the two crunch games are on September 23rd against Colorado and October 3rd against Chivas. Six points there and the Caps are in, I feel.
Simple isn't it?!
Dallas have a bye week next weekend, then head off to San Jose. If the Caps can do the business in the two games above then they could have a seven point gap over Dallas before they get to play their first Chivas game. Add in anything we can get off Seattle on top of that.
Psychologically that would be massive.
On the flip side, if Dallas keep fighting and keep that desire we saw this evening, then the Caps will go into their home games with a bit of fear and any dropped points could prove to be very costly.
The nightmare scenario would be the battle going in to the last week of the season. Apart from not getting the chance to rest players before the playoffs begin, Vancouver are at the disadvantage of playing their final game the day before Dallas, so the Texas club could go into their home game against Chivas knowing what they need to do.
That would not be fun viewing.
The Whitecaps have now made it very interesting for themselves and those looking on. They've dug their own hole, now they need to find a way out.
It's a numbers game now.
<p>