First, some history.
Here’s the amount of points the lowest placed team in the playoffs has earned in the last 3 seasons (that’s the length of time the league has employed a 34 game schedule, and admitted 10 teams, rather than 8, into the MLS Cup Playoffs.): 46, 43, 49. Not a single 50 point season there.
On the other hand, here’s the point total of the highest placed team that didn’t make the playoffs in that same period: 43, 52, 51. So, apparently paradoxically, you don’t need 50 points to make the playoffs, but 50 points doesn’t even regularly guarantee that you will make the playoffs.
The reason, which should be obvious, is the impact that MLS’s conference based playoff qualification has on that constantly moving target. Everyone knows that, but somehow seem to ignore it.
50 points is a reasonable objective for any MLS team at the start of the season before the strength of each conference can really be determined. Even a mediocre team can achieve that and, in most years in each conference, it means you’ll be competitive for the playoffs even if you’re unlucky enough to miss.
But now, with less than a third of the MLS season remaining, 50 points isn’t a meaningful threshold, it’s actually distracting.
It seems obvious, but to make the playoffs you only need 1 more point (or a better goal difference) than the team that finishes 6th in your conference. Again, let’s look at that number over the last three years:
East: 44, 53, 50
West: 43, 40, 52
In the past three years, half the time, you did not need 50 points to make the playoffs. It’s just as common to need less than 45 points as it is to need more than 50 points.
In 2014, in MLS’s Eastern Conference, you will not need 50 points to make the playoffs. It’s just not possible, and anyone who takes the time to take the barest look at the standings should see that immediately.
Currently, below Toronto FC’s current position of third in the conference, there are 4 teams with a better than longshot chance of playoff qualification: Columbus, New York, New England, and Philadelphia. Houston or Chicago could – emphasis on “could” – drag themselves into that group, but until either of them go on a 3 or 4 game winning run, they’re very unlikely to be in a position to finish ahead of Toronto FC.
So, realistically, for Toronto FC to miss the playoffs, 3 of the 4 teams immediately below them would have to overtake them in the standings.
Here’s what it will take for each of those teams to reach the 49 point threshold that would move the line for playoff qualification up to 50 points:
Columbus: 33 points, 9 games remaining, requires 1.78 PPG to reach 49 points.
New York: 31 points, 10 games remaining, requires 1.80 PPG to reach 49 points.
New England: 30 points, 10 games remaining, requires 1.90 PPG to reach 49 points.
Philadelphia: 30 points, 9 games remaining, requires 2.11 PPG to reach 49 points.
For reference, the Seattle Sounders, the current leaders in the Supporter’s Shield standings, have a PPG of 1.88. Over a short burst of four, five, maybe even six or seven games, it’s possible that any, or even all, of the teams chasing TFC could maintain that pace. But not over 9 or 10 games.
One team? Yes, it’s possible, maybe even probable, that one of those teams could maintain a 1.88 PPG. Two? Not impossible, but very unlikely. Three? Three of four mid-table teams will all suddenly transform into Shield contender calibre and maintain a PPG higher than the current Shield leaders? No, that’s just not possible and is not going to happen.
And it’s not like the teams mentioned above won’t be playing each other. While it’s obvious that TFC can’t afford to lose both of their upcoming games against Philadelphia, it’s easy to miss that over the next two months Columbus will play New England twice, New York once, and Philadelphia twice. That’s in addition to a couple of other games between New England, New York, and Philadelphia as well. None of those matches can end with 3 points for both sides; if they draw, it’s only 1 point apiece and a knock to both sides' chance of keeping anything like a 1.88 PPG.
So it won’t take 50 points to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. Of that, we can be fairly certain.
Now, none of that is to say that TFC are anything like a certainty to make the playoffs. If they collapse, and take anything less than 10 points from their final 11 games, TFC fans will probably not be watching their team in November, even in a single away game.
10 points though? That’s 2W-4D-5L or 3W-1D-7L. Even those records would see Toronto reach 43 points, which might just be enough to sneak-in in 5th place, however unlikely.
13 points? 3W-4D-4L or 4W-1D-6L. That’s still not even a winning record over their last 11 and would see TFC up to 46 points. It would probably be a tense final couple weeks, but it’s a total they’d be very unlucky to miss the playoffs with the way things are shaping up.
And what if TFC actually manage 16 points from their next 11 games and reach the 49 point threshold? 4W-4D-3L or 5W-1D-5L? That wouldn’t just be enough to see TFC into the playoffs for the first time ever, it would almost certainly have them at least hosting the play-in game, if not still safely ensconced in 3rd or even possibly challenging for 2nd.
50 points? It’s a nice goal. It might even be achievable. But it’s not going to be necessary, and fretting over the next few months because you think that’s what TFC “needs” is actually just needless.