By Michael Crampton
I’m afraid my reader will have to indulge me as we begin with a bit of a digression.
First off, I’m not Scottish. I number among my acquaintances however a reasonable number of friends of Scottish extraction. As such, even though I don’t actively follow them, keeping an eye on the epic tragic results of the Scottish national team can be a regular source of mirth. The story I am about to recount probably didn’t happen exactly as I remember it. Regardless, it has been told and retold so many times by now that its apocryphal origins are entirely less relevant than the truth it reveals.
In the fall of 2003 Scotland managed to record a famous 1 – 0 home victory against an immensely talented Dutch side in the first leg of their Euro 2004 qualifying playoff. It had been a skin of the teeth affair however as James McFadden’s 22nd minute goal only held up due to a number of hit posts and goal line clearances. No one was under any illusions: the task facing the Scots in the second leg to be held four days later would be immense.
For the second leg I managed to find an internet radio feed of BBC Scotland’s coverage of the match. In the build up to kickoff one of the studio analysts asked a question of the Scottish colour commentator: “what are Scotland’s chances?” (I won’t attempt to type in dialect but it’s best if you imagine the following in a thick Scottish accent.) The excited commentator, practically yelling to be heard above the atmospheric din of the Amsterdam ArenA in the background, replied:
“Well, it’s very, very important to stress that THIS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE! But if Scotland is going to be successful then three things have to happen. First, Scotland will have to play the absolute best game they are capable of. Second, and let’s face it, you don’t like to say it, but we’ve got to hope that the Dutch have an off day. And third... well... we’re gonna need some luck too!”
I can’t help but remember (and chuckle at) the above when I think of Toronto FC walking into Estadio Corona to face Club Santos Laguna in the second leg of their CONCACAF Champions League semifinal this Wednesday night.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
There has been some argument since last Wednesday night’s first leg in Toronto over exactly what TFC achieved by earning a 1 – 1 draw. Objectively speaking, a draw, particularly a scoring draw, is not usually considered a good result in the home leg of an aggregate goals fixture. Both Montreal and Seattle have taken better first leg results down to Mexico and even achieved more than creditable first halves there before being absolutely destroyed in the second half. Keep in mind that Montreal was actually leading their tie three years ago 4 – 1 before Santos turned that over in the final minutes and escaped with a 5 – 4 aggregate victory. So, in some sense, maybe it’s best to accept that if you’re from north of the Rio Grande no lead is safe in Torreón.
What Toronto really achieved was successfully keeping the tie within reach. The key thing for TFC in the second leg is to keep hanging around as long as possible. The longer they stay within one goal of taking the lead (or even just pushing the match to extra time) the better. If Santos scores first that doesn’t change. Even if Santos was to take a two goal lead the Reds shouldn’t panic: one goal and they’re right back in it within touching distance of retaking the lead on aggregate again.
It may offend the romantic notions of some fans but what TFC needs to do on Wednesday night is play cagey. Don’t be mistaken: the Reds, like Seattle, will not survive in a shoot out and should not look for one. Against a vastly more talented and technically superior opponent, playing in their comfort zone in front of their home fans, Toronto needs to compress the match both spatially and temporally.
Spatially they must press from the front and deny Santos the opportunity to patiently build up through the middle third. The difficulty though is that TFC will have to remain compact and not allow too much of a gap to be created between their forwards and defense. Aron Winter’s high defensive line has been rightfully criticized early in the season and finding the precise level to push up to that denies playmaking space to Santos in midfield while not leaving too much space in behind the defenders will be critical.
Most importantly, TFC cannot allow themselves to be caught on the counter. Giving the Mexicans the sort of three on three counter attack that lead to the Crew’s goal on the weekend is a recipe for disaster. Toronto’s normally marauding fullbacks will have to pick their runs very carefully and it’s not unreasonable to suggest that most of the time TFC should content themselves with only really throwing four men into attack in the final third.
The argument for temporal compression is that when you’re the weaker side it’s generally advisable to make the game shorter. It’s a sort of gamesmanship that many Canadian soccer fans are uncomfortable with but for a match of this importance Toronto FC need to take any advantage they can get. Take an extra few seconds to collect the ball and put it back into play. When fouled don’t necessarily roll around and wait for the stretcher but at least take the time to catch your breath and let the team find its shape again. Use non-violent tactical fouling to break up the rhythm of Santos’ possession. Don’t feel the need to score with every possession. Simply put: TFC will have a better chance of winning if the match is played over 60 rather than 80 minutes of actual play.
The thing is that in the end Toronto FC can do absolutely everything right in this match and still lose. If the journey that began way back on April 27th, 2011 versus FC Edmonton is to continue then TFC will need more than just a well executed game plan.
They’ll need to play the best game they possibly can.
They’ll need Santos Laguna to have an off night.
And they’ll probably still need a little luck.
(For those interested: the Scots lost 6 – 0.)