Oh, the difference a week can make. Six days ago, bitterly cold fans trudging out of BMO Field were left to consider that Toronto FC had blown a second straight lead in injury time to let two points slip away, hadn’t won since early March, and a familiar Toronto fear – another season over before it began – was starting to look possible.
It didn’t help that the New York Red Bulls, the Reds’ opponents on Saturday, had just come off a fine 4-1 victory at home to New England which, combined with a win in DC the weekend before (sandwiched around a home loss to an on-track Kansas City side), had finally started pulling them up MLS’s Eastern Conference standings. That’s before mentioning that Thierry Henry also seemed to be hitting form.
Then Toronto went and won a home game while keeping a clean sheet for the first time since May 26, 2012, Dax McCarty got injured, and TFC announced an eagerly anticipated signing. Heck, even the weather was finally turning and the Leafs made the playoffs for the first time in some young Reds fans' memories. Suddenly, here in Toronto, we’re positively buoyant.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
Granted, the win was basically Toronto Reserves beating the Montreal Reserves but the feeling it generated was such a relief that it felt psychologically significant. The advanced analytics crowd might have long since proven that momentum is an almost entirely imagined post hoc projection that tries to turn a series of random events into a narrative but narratives are most often how we experience our lives (and sports teams).
TFC’s injury list might not be any shorter, they’re still winless in five in the league, and “Tobias” might not have really moved to Chicoutimi but, for Reds fans, this is often as good as it gets.
Evaluating the Red Bulls is no straight forward task. Clearly, with players like Thierry Henry, Tim Cahill, and now former RSLer Fabian Espindola at their disposal they are a dangerous team who will threaten opposing defenses. Midfielder Johnny Steele has done better than expected after also moving from Salt Lake in adding a solid bite and energy alongside McCarty.
The significance of McCarty’s absence is difficult to overstate. While he may not be the Bull’s best player and is certainly not as famous as some of his teammates he’s normally the one who serves as the glue in midfield and allows the more creative players the opportunity to get forward.
It’s much easier to see how new New York head coach Mike Petke was prepared to deal with the absence of Juninho Pernambucano – the aging Brazilian star is still suspended for kicking a ball at Sporting KC keeper Jimmy Nielsen – than with McCarty, a player for whom he has few like-for-like replacements. Cahill will likely play deeper in central midfield but most observers would not suggest that he still has the ability to get up and down the field and cover ground the way McCarty does.
Defensively the Red Bulls’ record is a reflection of their frailty at the back; especially on the road. Like Toronto, they are a team that has already dropped a significant number of points from winning positions. In fact, the Red Bulls enjoyed half time leads in Portland and San Jose (and almost in Chicago) yet only managed to pick up one point from those fixtures. Toronto has been turning leads into draws but New York has turned them into losses.
The towering Jameson Olave is the final member of New York’s trio of transfers from Real Salt Lake and was expected to help rectify that situation. When on the field he adds presence and stability to the centre of defense but aging knees mean he has only played 583 out of 810 minutes for the club so far this year and his availability is a regular question mark.
For Toronto head coach Ryan Nelsen the only certainty is that the focus of his preparation and use of the entire squad must be exclusively centered on Saturday’s game. While the cup is fun and has too often provided the only solace in miserable years thoughts of a fifth consecutive victory in the North American Backyard Pillow Fighting Championship cannot interfere with the club’s league campaign.
Tough league games in Colorado and San Jose will not provide easy opportunities to pick up three points and, with McCarty’s absence and the confidence of Wednesday’s result to build on, the Reds have been handed a chance to keep moving towards long sought respectability in the standings.
But this is Toronto, we’ve been here before, and clearly one should remain wary. For Reds fans, however, hopefully this is the time they actually seize on the positive and keep moving forwards rather than breaking supporters’ hearts the way they usually do.