It all comes down to this.
While it's true that Toronto FC aren't mathematically eliminated from the MLS playoffs, the scenarios that would have to happen for the Reds to qualify for the post-season are so convoluted that it's pretty damn near an impossibility at this point.
In fact, Toronto could win on the weekend and still be eliminated by no less than two other clubs.
In other words, forget about it.
The CONCACAF Champions League still presents a more favourable possibility for advancement, however it too is a long shot -- one that would be aided hugely by a TFC win over visiting Pumas.
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It's easier said than done, of course. Pumas are the team that laid down in their first two CCL matches only to awaken and put the boots to a shell-shocked Toronto side a couple of weeks back in Mexico City. A surprise injection of a whole slew full of regulars -- enough to be legitimately called an 'A' squad -- ran roughshod over TFC, propelling Pumas back into the thick of things in the CCL and providing an ample confidence boost to help right the ship in the Mexican Apertura.
In the thirteen days since Pumas dropped the 4-0 bomb on the Reds, the Mexican side have won two more in their league and grabbed a decisive victory in Dallas in the CCL. It goes without saying, but Pumas are suddenly on a roll, and it comes thanks in large part to the stomping they put on Toronto.
So here we are in the return leg, an undermanned TFC preparing to host the rampaging team from Mexico City under the most urgent of circumstances.
Yes, Toronto can lose the match and still move on, as long as Dallas tanks it in their remaining two Champions League matches. With the current slide the Texans are on, a couple of losses aren't completely out of the realm of possibility.
That said, Toronto cannot afford to squander the chance put in front of them on Tuesday night. The Reds simply have to assume that Dallas will take care of business on their end, which means TFC needs to do the same themselves or be eliminated.
A win or even a draw against Pumas puts Toronto at or near the top of the group with one matchday to go, and if the threat of elimination isn't motivation enough, possibly topping the group should be.
It'll be tough -- as reported here last week, TFC will be without captain Torsten Frings, Terry Dunfield, and Mikael Yourassowsky due to yellow card accumulation. That leaves a giant hole in the central midfield, but Julian de Guzman -- whose best game of 2010 was when Cruz Azul visited the lakeshore -- youngster Matt Stinson, and possibly even Nathan Sturgis will have to step up and make themselves known.
Of course, Toronto will also be without cup-tied Eric Avila, whose creativity and willingness to go forward will be missed. Similarly, little sparkplug Joao Plata is still out with a hamstring injury.
It looks bleak for TFC, especially in light of the unbelievably flat performance that they put on in Los Angeles over the weekend. But if this team, as is, has any heart and any fight left, now is the time for them to show it.
A less talented Toronto FC stared down Cruz Azul last year and sent them back to Mexico with their collective tails between their legs. If Toronto wants 2011 to count for something less abstract than "improvement," they'll scratch and claw in order to get the same thing done on Tuesday night.
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Notes:
- Pumas coach Guillermo Vasquez hinted that he may go back to the 'B' squad ahead of the huge league match against Club America on Saturday. Of course, he also said before Toronto's visit a couple of weeks back that he'd keep playing the youngsters, so Winter et al. need to take that bit of information with a huge grain of salt.
- Toronto may go with Milos Kocic in goal again, even though Stefan Frei has completely healed and played the full 90 minutes at Chivas last weekend.
Toronto FC v. Pumas UNAM
Tuesday, September 27, 2011. 8:00pm EDT.
BMO Field. Toronto, ON.
Watch: Setanta Sports Canada, CONCACAF TV (requires registration)
Listen: FAN590.com
Rudi Schuller contributes Toronto FC and Canadian national team content to the 24th Minute. He is MLSsoccer.com's beat writer for all things concerning Canada's men's national teams, and has contributed to Goal.com and other soccer media. Follow Rudi on Twitter, @RudiSchuller.