By Mike Crampton
Okay, so I've spent a lot of the last week watching and reading team previews on the MLS official site mlssoccer.com.
Fundamentally, here's what it comes down to: for the 1,437,482nd time
TORONTO FC DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH MLS PLAYERS.
They've got an MLS goalkeeper.
They've (finally) got some MLS defenders.
They've got ONE MLS central midfielder who's aging (but rugged). And Terry. Give thanks for Terry.
They've got one emergent MLS attacking player, maybe even a star one day, in Silva.
And that's it.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
Once again, they don't have an MLS coach. Yet. (No one argues that Nelsen doesn’t have potential but that's all you can argue.)
Everyone else isn't there yet and still has to prove themselves as fundamentally being MLS players. Braun, Morgan, Bekker, all the other draft picks and homegrowns, even Silva more properly belongs in this category but his emergence as an every game MLS player has been accelerated and now basically has to happen by default; all of them are not really full fledged MLS players yet. Most probably never will be. That’s just the nature of blooding young players anywhere in the world but even more so in a competitive and improving league.
Multiple leaderships have spent so long burning through assets, or tied up okay players on bad (unmovable for value) contracts, that TFC don't have anything left to trade to GET MLS players. Hopefully Hassli works out in Dallas and they get a 1st round pick back in 2014 but that's still a year away and it'd probably be longer than that before we could expect an every game starter.
Yes, there will be signings; some have already started. You don't free up budget and roster spaces and pile up allocation to sit around not signing anyone. The problem is that foreign signings are so hit and miss. Occasionally you strike gold and add a really transformative player but just as often you strike out and the player is gone in a year after never really adapting and only marginally contributing. I'd love to see league wide stats but my gut says that if you're succeeding on 1 out of 2 international (discovery) signings you're doing pretty well; 1 out of 3 is probably closer to the norm. Every player who ends up being released at year end and leaves on a free is another asset gone begging; particularly if you used allocation to fit them into your salary budget in the first place.
In Toronto we feel like that's just a TFC thing but I suspect it's pretty true of the rest of the league too. The league rarely pays transfer fees and there's only so much talent waiting around out of contract ready to come to North America for MLS wages who can't find a better deal elsewhere. Many of the biggest successes as international signings have been players targeted years in advance and slowly wooed by the idea of playing in America, for a decent wage, once their existing contract expires. My perception is that’s how different clubs around the league ended up with talents like Javi Morales, David Ferreira, or Federico Higuain: long term courtship built on established relationships. It’s the other big advantage of stability and continuity in leadership. Yes, sometimes you just get lucky and the “hey, I happen to know this guy’s available” approach will work or a great player falls into your lap – Joel Lindpere or Ossie Alonso come to mind – but that doesn’t seem like the sort of thing you should rely on.
Really, because of the lack of labour mobility across borders in BOTH directions, it's always been domestic talent that has been undercompensated in the league which is why the best MLS teams are built with a solid core of reasonably remunerated Americans. When you use international signings to fill holes in your roster you’re taking a big gamble; one that, most of the time, doesn’t work out. On the other hand, when you build a roster around a few specifically targeted foreign talents you have the luxury, if you’re doing it right and your targets work out, of adding interchangeable PROVEN MLS players around those marquee foreign signings. Suddenly, utility players in the mold of Preki’s “plumbers” start to make a whole lot of sense.
The problem is that for Toronto FC, with so few MLS players on their roster, they're basically going to have to have a nearly unprecedented run of success in international signings - or some of the kids are going to have to vastly exceed what should be expected of them - to even become a competitive MLS team that can challenge for a playoff spot. I know that's not what 2013 is supposed to be about and yeah, maybe they're doing this the right way, but that's still sad. When TFC parted ways with Aron Winter in the spring of 2012 I was excited because I thought it gave them the best chance at being competitive in 2013... not 2014! But even more management instability since has contributed to pretty much precluding that.
'Cause here's another sad reality: every season, year after year, SOMEONE has to finish last. It's actually easy to forget that when you're evaluating your own team's prospects. It's possible that TFC could improve, get closer to being competitive, and STILL finish in last place; definitely in the East if not in the league overall. (Thanks Chivas! Though I won’t be shocked if they exceed expectations and aren’t terrible; it happens with at least one team every year. Why not them?)
Personally, and I consider this on the optimistic side compared to some conversations I've had, I still think that TFC will get back to being "respectably bad" rather than downright awful and finish in the 31-32 point range: 7 wins and 10 draws or 8 wins and 8 draws seems eminently possible. Now I'm no Nate Silver, I can't predict the future, that's a guess, and really just from the gut (and hope); so it probably won't be right. But if you're "projecting" a team to have 31.5 points that means that it's just as likely that they'll end up with 23 points (again) as it is that they will with 40! If things go well they could be in higher part of that range; if they go poorly – injuries to vital players, lack of motivation, or a loss of confidence early in the year - and they're right back into the "embarrassing" part of the range. And even 40 points almost certainly wouldn't be enough to make the playoffs though it would mean the season isn’t over in June (again).
At this point, if you're being fair, there's no reason to believe that there's any team with a greater likelihood of finishing last than Toronto. At best, even the least prepared clubs only have an equal chance of bringing up the rear as TFC does and almost all of them look to have much higher ceilings. Really, from the hole they've dug themselves before a ball is kicked, any finish outside of last has to be considered success in that sort of scenario. TFC have already finished last overall in MLS twice in their short history and last in the East in half of their seasons of league play! In a league with no relegation TFC are essentially starting the season with the ambition of "staying out of the bottom three". Brutal.
So, seven seasons in, February not even over, and the "reasonable" attitude and expectation can only be "well, there's always next year." Honestly, I don't think it's ever been this bad. "Darkest before the dawn"? We can only hope.
Kits are sorta interesting I guess.
(And the rest of the league will be great to watch this year).