With the three Canadian teams holding three of the first four picks in the 2012 SuperDraft, the top NCAA talent may want to consider renewing their passports soon.
But, should Canadian fans be excited by the prospect of their arrival? Last week we looked at the affect of the homegrown rule so far and the evidence suggested that the Canadian teams are relying on homegrown players more than most American teams. We speculated that the reason for that might be because of a combination of the (however limited) Canadian quota and a reluctance of some American players to come to Canada.
However, it would be foolhardy to ignore the possibility of picks 1, 2 and 4. Although the importance of the draft may be gradually reducing, it’s not totally useless. There are players to be had.
With that in mind, we looked at the history of the draft to try to see if there were any patterns that should be considered. The results are below the jump.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The first thing we wanted to do was to see just how useful the draft is at finding players. Using the objective stat of total appearances, we looked at every player picked in the first round from 2000 to 2011 (there were a few players that we could not find data for. We’ve omitted those players).
We categorized the players into four levels of success – exceptional, solid, poor and failure. An exceptional player appeared in at least 75 per cent of games over their career (to allow us to compare the older drafts, we considered six seasons to be a typical career and 30 games to be a typical season – i.e. players drafted from 2000 to 2006 were expected to have appeared in 75 per cent of 180 games). Solid players appeared in 50 to 74 per cent of games, poor picks appeared in 25 to 49 per cent and failures appeared in less than 25 per cent.
In real numbers:
2000-2006 – More than 134 (exceptional), 90-134 (solid), 45-89 (poor), less than 45 (failure)
2007 – More than 112 (exceptional), 75-112 (solid), 38-74 (poor), less than 38 (failure)
2008 - More than 89 (exceptional), 60-89 (solid), 30-59 (poor), less than 30 (failure)
2009 – More than 67 (exceptional), 45-67 (solid), 23-66 (poor), less than 23 (failure)
2010 - More than 44 (exceptional), 30-44 (solid), 15-43 (poor), less than 15 (failure)
2011 - More than 22 (exceptional), 15-22 (solid), 8-14 (poor), less than 8 (failure)
*indicates a significant amount of appearances in European or South American league of similar or better quality of MLS
By draft year (Bold indicates exceptional pick, italics indicate failure):
2000 - Steve Shak – 22 (age in draft year) – 38 (appearances) – New York
2000 - Nick Garcia – 21 – 296 – Kansas City
2000 - Adin Brown – 22 – 85 - Colorado
2000 - Carlos Bocanegra – 21 – 87* - Chicago
2000 - Aleksey Korol – 22 – 40 - Dallas
2000 - Danny Califf – 20 – 186* - Los Angeles
2000 - Wes Hart – 23 – 92 - Colorado
2000 - Travis Mulraine – 23 – 15 – San Jose
2000 - John Wilson – 23 – 32 – Kansas City
2000 - Alan Woods – 22 – 19 - Colorado
2000 - Sasha Victorine – 22 – 239 – Los Angeles
2000 - Bobby Convey – 17 – 164* - DC United
Total – 12 picks.
Average appearances – 108
Median appearances – 86
Average age of picks: 21.5
Exceptional picks: 4
Solid picks: 3
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 3
2001 - Chris Carrieri – 21 – 70 – San Jose
2001 - Ali Curtis – 23 – 50 – Tampa Bay
2001 - Mark Lisi – 24 – 120 – DC United
2001 - Ryan Nelsen – 24 – 81* - DC United
2001 - Joselito Velasco – 19 – 94* - Dallas
2001 - Craig Demmin – 30 -19 - Tampa
2001 - Ryan Suarez – 24 -75 - Dallas
2001 - Santino Quaranta – 17 -180 – DC United
2001 - Brian Mullan – 23 – 273 Los Angeles
2001 - Duncan Oughton – 24 – 136 - Columbus
2001 - Isaias Bardales Jr – 22 – 12 – Los Angeles
2001 - José Luis Burciaga – 19 – 127 – Kansas City
Total – 12 picks.
Average appearances: 103
Median appearances: 87.5
Average age of picks: 22.5
Exceptional picks: 3
Solid picks: 3
Poor picks: 4
Failures: 2
2002 - Chris Gbandi – 23 – 111 - Dallas
2002 - Taylor Twellman – 22 – 174* - New England
2002 - Brad Davis – 20 – 271 – New York
2002 - Justin Mapp – 18 – 223 - DC United
2002 - Kelly Gray – 21 – 167 - Chicago
2002 - Luchi Gonzalez – 22 – 30 – San Jose
2002 - Kyle Martino – 21 – 141 - Columbus
2002 - Carl Bussey – 22 – 9 - Dallas
2002 - Daouda Kante – 22 – 26 – DC United
Total – 9 picks (no stats for three players).
Average appearances: 128
Median appearances: 154
Average age of picks: 21.2
Exceptional picks: 5
Solid picks: 1
Poor picks: 0
Failures: 3
2003 - Alecko Eskandarian – 21 – 125 – DC United
2003 - Ricardo Clark – 20 – 181 – New York
2003 - Nate Jaqua – 22 – 193 - Chicago
2003 - Mike Magee – 19 – 196 – New York
2003 - David Stokes – 21 – 24 – DC United
2003 - Todd Dunivant – 22 – 218 – San Jose
2003 - Diego Walsh – 19 – 30 - Columbus
2003 - Guillermo Gonzalez – 17 – 12 – Los Angeles
2003 - Pat Noonan – 23 – 172 – New England
2003 - Shavar Thomas – 22 – 174 – Dallas
Total – 10 picks.
Average appearances: 132.5
Median appearances: 173
Average age of picks: 20.6
Exceptional picks: 6
Solid picks: 1
Poor picks: 0
Failures: 3
2004 - Freddy Adu – 15 – 111*- DC United
2004 - Chad Marshall – 20 – 210 - Columbus
2004 - Joseph Ngwenya – 23 – 118 – Los Angeles
2004 - Matthew Taylor – 23 – 54* - Kansas City
2004 - Ryan Cochrane – 21 – 145 – San Jose
2004 - Ramón Núñez – 18 – 75*- Dallas
2004 - Clarence Goodson – 22 – 74* - Dallas
2004 - Clint Dempsey – 21 – 71*- New England
2004 - Scott Buete – 24 – 21 - Chicago
2004 - Steve Cronin – 21 – 86 – San Jose
Total – 10 picks.
Average appearances: 96.5
Median appearances: 80.5
Average age of picks: 20.8
Exceptional picks: 2
Solid picks: 2
Poor picks: 5
Failures: 1
2005 - Nikolas Besagno – 16 – 8 – Salt Lake
2005 - Brad Guzan – 21 – 79*- Chivas
2005 - Chad Barrett – 20 – 173 - Chicago
2005 - Danny O'Rourke – 22 – 152 – San Jose
2005 - Ugo Ihemelu – 22 – 185 – Los Angeles
2005 - Drew Moor – 21- 193 - Dallas
2005 - Hunter Freeman – 20 – 107 - Colorado
2005 - Troy Roberts – 22 – 61 – Los Angeles
2005 - Michael Parkhurst – 21 – 110 - New England
2005 - Jack Stewart – 22 – 39 - Chicago
2005 - Scott Sealy – 24 – 128 – Kansas City
2005 - Tim Ward – 18 – 71 – New York
Total – 12 picks.
Average appearances: 108.8
Median appearances: 109
Average age of picks: 20.75
Exceptional picks: 4
Solid picks: 3
Poor picks: 3
Failures: 2
2006 - Marvell Wynne – 19 – 146 – New York
2006 - Mehdi Ballouchy – 22 – 163 – Salt Lake
2006 - Jason Garey – 21-97 - Columbus
2006 - Yura Movsisyan – 18 – 81 – Kansas City
2006 - Sacha Kljestan – 19 – 114*- Chivas
2006 - Dax McCarty – 18 – 124 - Dallas
2006 - Justin Moose – 21 – 8 – DC United
2006 - Patrick Ianni – 20 – 91 - Houston
2006 - Kei Kamara – 21 – 145 - Columbus
2006 - Calen Carr – 23 – 98 - Chicago
2006 - Nathan Sturgis – 18 – 75 – Los Angeles
Total – 11 picks (no stats on one player)
Average appearances: 103.8
Median appearances: 106
Average age of picks: 20
Exceptional picks: 3
Solid picks: 5
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 1
2007 - Maurice Edu – 20 – 38* - Toronto
2007 - Bakary Soumaré – 20 – 62* - Chicago
2007 - Michael Harrington – 20 – 138 – Kansas City
2007 - Chris Seitz – 19 – 31 – Salt Lake
2007 - Wells Thompson – 22 – 129 – New England
2007 - Nico Colaluca – 20 – 11 - Colorado
2007 - John Cunliffe – 25 – 27 - Chivas
2007 - Jerson Monteiro – 21 – 5 - Chicago
2007 - Anthony Wallace – 17 – 32- Dallas
2007 - Andrew Boyens – 23 – 68 - Toronto
2007 - Bryan Arguez – 17 – 0 – DC United
2007 - Amaechi Igwe – 18 – 22 – New England
2007 - John Michael Hayden – 23 – 18 – Houston
Total – 13 picks.
Average appearances: 44.7
Median appearances: 31.5
Average age of picks: 20.4
Exceptional picks: 2
Solid picks: 0
Poor picks: 3
Failures: 8
2008 - Chance Myers – 19 – 59 – Kansas City
2008 - Brek Shea – 17 – 82 - Dallas
2008 - Tony Beltran – 20 – 78 – Salt Lake
2008 - Sean Franklin – 22 – 92 – Los Angeles
2008 - Ciaran O'Brien – 19 – 1 - Colorado
2008 - Andy Iro – 22 – 71 - Columbus
2008 - Patrick Nyarko – 21 – 100 - Chicago
2008 - Josh Lambo – 16 – 0 - Dallas
2008 - Julius James – 23 – 84 - Toronto
2008 - Pat Phelan – 22 – 80 - Toronto
2008 - Roger Espinoza – 21 – 87 – Kansas City
2008 - Dominic Cervi – 21 – 0* - Chicago
2008 - Rob Valentino – 21 – 0 – New England
2008 - David Horst – 22 – 19 – Salt Lake
Total – 14 picks.
Average appearances: 48.1
Median appearances: 74.5
Average age of picks: 20.4
Exceptional picks: 2
Solid picks: 6
Poor picks: 1
Failures: 5
2009 - Steve Zakuani – 21 – 64 - Seattle
2009 - Sam Cronin – 22 – 69 - Toronto
2009 - Omar Gonzalez – 21 – 96 – Los Angeles
2009 - O'Brian White – 23 – 40 - Toronto
2009 - Peri Marošević – 20 – 11 - Dallas
2009 - Rodney Wallace – 21 – 60 – DC United
2009 - Chris Pontius – 22 – 70 – DC United
2009 - Matt Besler – 22 – 72 – Kansas City
2009 - Michael Lahoud – 23 – 62 - Chivas
2009 - Kevin Alston – 21 – 81 – New England
2009 - Jeremy Hall – 21 – 58 – New York
2009 - Jean-Marc Alexandre – 23 – 38 – Salt Lake
2009 - Stefan Frei – 23 – 81 - Toronto
2009 - George John – 22 – 76 – Dallas
Total – 14 picks (Stats missing on one player).
Average appearances: 62.7
Median appearances: 66.5
Average age of picks: 21.8
Exceptional picks: 7
Solid picks: 3
Poor picks: 2
Failures: 1
2010 - Danny Mwanga – 19 – 54 - Philly
2010 - Tony Tchani – 21 – 43 – New York
2010 - Ike Opara – 21 – 19 – San Jose
2010 - Teal Bunbury – 20 – 55 – Kansas City
2010 - Zach Loyd – 23 – 59 - Dallas
2010 - Amobi Okugo – 19 – 26 - Philly
2010 - Jack McInerney – 18 – 37 - Philly
2010 - Dilly Duka – 21 – 26 - Columbus
2010 - Zack Schilawski – 23 – 50 – New England
2010 - Blair Gavin – 21 – 34 - Chivas
2010 - David Estrada – 22 – 6 - Seattle
2010 - Bright Dike – 23 – 11 - Columbus
2010 - Corben Bone – 22 – 15 - Chicago
2010 - Austin da Luz – 23 – 21 – New York
2010 - Collen Warner – 22 – 31 – Salt Lake
2010 - Michael Stephens – 21 – 49 – Los Angeles
Total – 16 picks.
Average appearances: 33.5
Median appearances: 35.5
Average age of picks: 21.2
Exceptional picks: 5
Solid picks: 4
Poor picks: 4
Failures: 2
2011 - Omar Salgado – 18 – 14 - Vancouver
2011 - Darlington Nagbe – 21 – 28 - Portland
2011 - Perry Kitchen – 19 – 31 – DC United
2011 - Zarek Valentin – 20 – 25 - Chivas
2011 - Zach MacMath – 20 – 8 - Philly
2011 - A. J. Soares – 22 – 28 – New England
2011 - Kofi Sarkodie – 20 – 7 - Houston
2011 - Michael Nanchoff – 23 – 5 - Vancouver
2011 - Jalil Anibaba – 23 – 29 - Chicago
2011 - C. J. Sapong – 22 – 34 – Kansas City
2011 - Will Bruin – 22 – 27 - Houston
2011 - Rich Balchan – 22 – 20 - Columbus
2011 - Corey Hertzog – 21 – 5 – New York
2011 - Víctor Mairongo – 23 – 9 - Chivas
2011 - Justin Meram – 22 – 17 - Columbus
2011 - Paolo Cardozo – 22 – 18 – Los Angeles
2011 - Bobby Warshaw – 22 – 17 - Dallas
2011 - Eddie Ababio – 23 – 0 – Colorado
Total – 18 picks.
Average appearances: 18.8
Median appearances: 17.5
Average age of picks: 20.1
Exceptional picks: 7
Solid picks: 4
Poor picks: 3
Failures: 4
So, does anything jump out at us? Perhaps. It’s somewhat intuitive, but the numbers demonstrate that team’s selecting in the first round are more likely to select an exceptional player than a failure. It would also stand to reason that those exceptional picks are more likely to come from higher spots in the draft order. But are they? Here is the list of the 48 exceptional players drafted since 2000:
2nd - 2000 - Nick Garcia – 21 – 296 – Kansas City
6th - 2000 - Danny Califf – 20 – 186* - Los Angeles
11th - 2000 - Sasha Victorine – 22 – 239 – Los Angeles
12th - 2000 - Bobby Convey – 17 – 164* - DC United
8th - 2001 - Santino Quaranta – 17 -180 – DC United
9th - 2001 - Brian Mullan – 23 – 273 Los Angeles
10th - 2001 - Duncan Oughton – 24 – 136 – Columbus
2nd - 2002 - Taylor Twellman – 22 – 174* - New England
3rd - 2002 - Brad Davis – 20 – 271 – New York
4th - 2002 - Justin Mapp – 18 – 223 - DC United
5th - 2002 - Kelly Gray – 21 – 167 – Chicago
7th - 2002 - Kyle Martino – 21 – 141 – Columbus
2nd - 2003 - Ricardo Clark – 20 – 181 – New York
3rd - 2003 - Nate Jaqua – 22 – 193 - Chicago
4th - 2003 - Mike Magee – 19 – 196 – New York
6th - 2003 - Todd Dunivant – 22 – 218 – San Jose
9th - 2003 - Pat Noonan – 23 – 172 – New England
10th - 2003 - Shavar Thomas – 22 – 174 – Dallas
2nd - 2004 - Chad Marshall – 20 – 210 – Columbus
5th - 2004 - Ryan Cochrane – 21 – 145 – San Jose
3rd - 2005 - Chad Barrett – 20 – 173 - Chicago
4th - 2005 - Danny O'Rourke – 22 – 152 – San Jose
5th - 2005 - Ugo Ihemelu – 22 – 185 – Los Angeles
6th - 2005 - Drew Moor – 21- 193 – Dallas
1st - 2006 - Marvell Wynne – 19 – 146 – New York
2nd - 2006 - Mehdi Ballouchy – 22 – 163 – Salt Lake
9th - 2006 - Kei Kamara – 21 – 145 – Columbus
3rd - 2007 - Michael Harrington – 20 – 138 – Kansas City
5th - 2007 - Wells Thompson – 22 – 129 – New England
4th - 2008 - Sean Franklin – 22 – 92 – Los Angeles
7th - 2008 - Patrick Nyarko – 21 – 100 – Chicago
2nd - 2009 - Sam Cronin – 22 – 69 - Toronto
3rd - 2009 - Omar Gonzalez – 21 – 96 – Los Angeles
8th - 2009 - Matt Besler – 22 – 72 – Kansas City
10th - 2009 - Kevin Alston – 21 – 81 – New England
1st - 2010 - Danny Mwanga – 19 – 54 – Philly
4th - 2010 - Teal Bunbury – 20 – 55 – Kansas City
5th - 2010 - Zach Loyd – 23 – 59 – Dallas
9th - 2010 - Zack Schilawski – 23 – 50 – New England
16th - 2010 - Michael Stephens – 21 – 49 – Los Angeles
2nd - 2011 - Darlington Nagbe – 21 – 28 - Portland
3rd - 2011 - Perry Kitchen – 19 – 31 – DC United
4th - 2011 - Zarek Valentin – 20 – 25 – Chivas
6th - 2011 - A. J. Soares – 22 – 28 – New England
9th - 2011 - Jalil Anibaba – 23 – 29 - Chicago
10th - 2011 - C. J. Sapong – 22 – 34 – Kansas City
11th - 2011 - Will Bruin – 22 – 27 – Houston
So, 43.3 per cent (26/60) of top five picks turned out to be exceptional, versus 28.3 per cent (17/60) of picks 6-10. Only four picks, or 12.5 per cent (4/32) above 10th overall turned out to be exceptional. The possibility of getting an important player clearly drops off dramatically and quickly.
An interesting anomaly amongst the data is the failure of teams to select exceptional picks No 1 overall. Only twice -- Marvell Wynne in 2006 and Danny Mwanga in 2010 – has the top pick been in the top category (No 2 overall is the most successful place to pick with seven of 12 picks ending up as exceptional – so Whitecaps fans should be happy).
There is, of course, a half empty way to look at those numbers – more than half of top five picks do not end up as exceptional picks. Drafting isn’t a science and it’s understandable if every top prospect doesn’t fully pan out. What good teams need to do is to avoid really blowing it by picking failures.
In total, 36 players meet that unfortunate criteria.
1st - 2000 - Steve Shak – 22 – 38 – New York
5th - 2000 - Aleksey Korol – 22 – 40 – Dallas
8th - 2000 - Travis Mulraine – 23 – 15 – San Jose
9th - 2000 - John Wilson – 23 – 32 – Kansas City
10th - 2000 - Alan Woods – 22 – 19 – Colorado
6th - 2001 - Craig Demmin – 30 -19 – Tampa
11th - 2001 - Isaias Bardales Jr – 22 – 12 – Los Angeles
6th - 2002 - Luchi Gonzalez – 22 – 30 – San Jose
8th - 2002 - Carl Bussey – 22 – 9 - Dallas
9th - 2002 - Daouda Kante – 22 – 26 – DC United
5th - 2003 - David Stokes – 21 – 24 – DC United
7th - 2003 - Diego Walsh – 19 – 30 - Columbus
8th - 2003 - Guillermo Gonzalez – 17 – 12 – Los Angeles
9th - 2004 - Scott Buete – 24 – 21 – Chicago
1st - 2005 - Nikolas Besagno – 16 – 8 – Salt Lake
10th - 2005 - Jack Stewart – 22 – 39 – Chicago
7th - 2006 - Justin Moose – 21 – 8 – DC United
4th - 2007 - Chris Seitz – 19 – 31 – Salt Lake
6th - 2007 - Nico Colaluca – 20 – 11 - Colorado
7th - 2007 - John Cunliffe – 25 – 27 - Chivas
8th - 2007 - Jerson Monteiro – 21 – 5 – Chicago
9th - 2007 - Anthony Wallace – 17 – 32- Dallas
11th - 2007 - Bryan Arguez – 17 – 0 – DC United
12th - 2007 - Amaechi Igwe – 18 – 22 – New England
13th - 2007 - John Michael Hayden – 23 – 18 – Houston
5th - 2008 - Ciaran O'Brien – 19 – 1 – Colorado
8th - 2008 - Josh Lambo – 16 – 0 – Dallas
12th - 2008 - Dominic Cervi – 21 – 0* - Chicago
13th - 2008 - Rob Valentino – 21 – 0 – New England
14th - 2008 - David Horst – 22 – 19 – Salt Lake
5th - 2009 - Peri Marošević – 20 – 11 – Dallas
11th - 2010 - David Estrada – 22 – 6 - Seattle
12th - 2010 - Bright Dike – 23 – 11 – Columbus
7th - 2011 - Kofi Sarkodie – 20 – 7 - Houston
8th - 2011 - Michael Nanchoff – 23 – 5 – Vancouver
13th - 2011 - Corey Hertzog – 21 – 5 – New York
It is quite rare to pick a bomb in the top five, with just 11.6 per cent (7/60) of selections turning out to be failures. The number drops even more dramatically when you limit it to the top four selections. There only 0.5 per cent (3/60) have been failures (interestingly two of those three were first overall).
Almost a third (31.6 per cent or 19/60) of picks 6-10 are failures and a similar number (31.2 per cent or 10/32) above 10 fail. Whether a one in three chance to get a lemon is enough to justify trading those spots is up to others to judge.
Beyond the somewhat obvious factor of draft order, are there any other factors that might predict success or failure? What about age? Let’s look:
Of the 48 exceptional draft picks (rounding to nearest year) eight were younger than 20, seven were 20, 12 were 21, 15 were 22, 5 were 23 and just one was older than 23. By percentage of the total amount of players selected of the same age it broke down like this:
Younger than 20 – 30 selected – 8 exceptional – 26.6% of total picked
20 – 17 selected – 7 exceptional – 41.1% of total picked
21 – 34 selected – 12 exceptional – 35.2% of total picked
22 – 41 selected – 15 exceptional – 36.5% of total picked
23 – 27 selected – 5 exceptional – 18.5% of total picked
Older than 23 – 8 selected – 1 exceptional – 12.5% of total picked
There is clearly a drop off after 22 (as well with those younger than 20). However, to get a full picture we should also look at the failure rate by age:
Younger than 20 – 30 selected – 9 failures – 30% of total picked
20 – 17 selected – 3 failures – 17.6% of total picked
21 – 34 selected – 6 failures – 17.6% of total picked
22 – 41 selected – 10 failures – 24.3% of total picked
23 – 27 selected – 6 failures – 22.2% of total picked
Older than 23 – 8 selected – 3 failures – 37.5% of total picked
The younger than 19 numbers are once again interesting and seem to be in contrast with the rest of the numbers that suggest younger is better. There are a couple of possible reasons for that. Those drafted over the last few years may not have even reached the same age as the 21-22 year olds that have been more successful so far. It’s also likely that drafting a teenager is more of an all or nothing proposition. They may be a failure, but they may also become truly exceptional (as opposed to statistically exceptional as defined by this article).
It’s also fairly clear that drafting older players is a risk. If they are older than 23 it’s a big risk. A risk that rarely pays off.
There is a significant factor we’ve ignored up to now – who is drafting the players. Do some clubs draft better than others? Let’s have a look.
Teams need to have made a minimum of five first round picks to receive a ranking.
2000 - Steve Shak – 22 – 38 – New York
2002 - Brad Davis – 20 – 271 – New York
2003 - Ricardo Clark – 20 – 181 – New York
2003 - Mike Magee – 19 – 196 – New York
2005 - Tim Ward – 18 – 71 – New York
2006 - Marvell Wynne – 19 – 146 – New York
2010 - Tony Tchani – 21 – 43 – New York
2010 - Austin da Luz – 23 – 21 – New York
2011 - Corey Hertzog – 21 – 5 – New York
Total picks: 9
Exceptional picks: 4 (44.4%)
Failures: 2 (22.2%)
Success rate (Exceptional – Failures): 22.2%
2000 - Adin Brown – 22 – 85 - Colorado
2000 - Wes Hart – 23 – 92 – Colorado
2000 - Alan Woods – 22 – 19 - Colorado
2005 - Hunter Freeman – 20 – 107 - Colorado
2007 - Nico Colaluca – 20 – 11 - Colorado
2008 - Ciaran O'Brien – 19 – 1 - Colorado
2011 - Eddie Ababio – 23 – 0 – Colorado
Total picks: 7
Exceptional picks: 0 (0%)
Failures: 2 (28.5%)
Success rate: -28.5%
2000 - Nick Garcia – 21 – 296 – Kansas City
2000 - John Wilson – 23 – 32 – Kansas City
2001 - José Luis Burciaga – 19 – 127 – Kansas City
2004 - Matthew Taylor – 23 – 54* - Kansas City
2005 - Scott Sealy – 24 – 128 – Kansas City
2006 - Yura Movsisyan – 18 – 81 – Kansas City
2007 - Michael Harrington – 20 – 138 – Kansas City
2008 - Chance Myers – 19 – 59 – Kansas City
2008 - Roger Espinoza – 21 – 87 – Kansas City
2009 - Matt Besler – 22 – 72 – Kansas City
2010 - Teal Bunbury – 20 – 55 – Kansas City
2011 - C. J. Sapong – 22 – 34 – Kansas City
Total picks: 12
Exceptional picks: 5 (41.6%)
Failures: 1 (8.3%)
Success rate: 33.3%
2000 - Carlos Bocanegra – 21 – 87* - Chicago
2002 - Kelly Gray – 21 – 167 - Chicago
2003 - Nate Jaqua – 22 – 193 - Chicago
2004 - Scott Buete – 24 – 21 - Chicago
2005 - Chad Barrett – 20 – 173 - Chicago
2005 - Jack Stewart – 22 – 39 - Chicago
2006 - Calen Carr – 23 – 98 – Chicago
2007 - Jerson Monteiro – 21 – 5 - Chicago
2007 - Bakary Soumaré – 20 – 62* - Chicago
2008 - Patrick Nyarko – 21 – 100 - Chicago
2008 - Dominic Cervi – 21 – 0* - Chicago
2010 - Corben Bone – 22 – 15 - Chicago
2011 - Jalil Anibaba – 23 – 29 - Chicago
Total picks: 13
Exceptional picks: 5 (38.4%)
Failures: 4 (30.7%)
Success rate: 8.4%
2000 - Aleksey Korol – 22 – 40 – Dallas
2001 - Joselito Velasco – 19 – 94* - Dallas
2001 - Ryan Suarez – 24 -75 - Dallas
2002 - Chris Gbandi – 23 – 111 - Dallas
2002 - Carl Bussey – 22 – 9 - Dallas
2003 - Shavar Thomas – 22 – 174 – Dallas
2004 - Ramón Núñez – 18 – 75*- Dallas
2004 - Clarence Goodson – 22 – 74* - Dallas
2005 - Drew Moor – 21- 193 - Dallas
2006 - Dax McCarty – 18 – 124 - Dallas
2007 - Anthony Wallace – 17 – 32- Dallas
2008 - Brek Shea – 17 – 82 – Dallas
2008 - Josh Lambo – 16 – 0 - Dallas
2009 - Peri Marošević – 20 – 11 - Dallas
2009 - George John – 22 – 76 – Dallas
2010 - Zach Loyd – 23 – 59 - Dallas
2011 - Bobby Warshaw – 22 – 17 – Dallas
Total picks: 17
Exceptional picks: 3 (17.6%)
Failures: 5 (29.4)
Success rate: -11.8
2000 - Danny Califf – 20 – 186* - Los Angeles
2000 - Sasha Victorine – 22 – 239 – Los Angeles
2001 - Brian Mullan – 23 – 273 Los Angeles
2001 - Isaias Bardales Jr – 22 – 12 – Los Angeles
2003 - Guillermo Gonzalez – 17 – 12 – Los Angeles
2004 - Joseph Ngwenya – 23 – 118 – Los Angeles
2005 - Ugo Ihemelu – 22 – 185 – Los Angeles
2005 - Troy Roberts – 22 – 61 – Los Angeles
2006 - Nathan Sturgis – 18 – 75 – Los Angeles
2008 - Sean Franklin – 22 – 92 – Los Angeles
2009 - Omar Gonzalez – 21 – 96 – Los Angeles
2010 - Michael Stephens – 21 – 49 – Los Angeles
2011 - Paolo Cardozo – 22 – 18 – Los Angeles
Total picks: 13
Exceptional picks: 7 (53.8%)
Failures: 2 (15.3%)
Success rate: 38.5%
2000 - Travis Mulraine – 23 – 15 – San Jose
2001 - Chris Carrieri – 21 – 70 – San Jose
2002 - Luchi Gonzalez – 22 – 30 – San Jose
2003 - Todd Dunivant – 22 – 218 – San Jose
2004 - Ryan Cochrane – 21 – 145 – San Jose
2004 - Steve Cronin – 21 – 86 – San Jose
2005 - Danny O'Rourke – 22 – 152 – San Jose
2006 - Patrick Ianni – 20 – 91 - Houston
2007 - John Michael Hayden – 23 – 18 – Houston
2011 - Kofi Sarkodie – 20 – 7 – Houston
Total picks: 10
Exceptional picks: 3 (30%)
Failures: 4 (40%)
Success rate: -10%
2000 - Bobby Convey – 17 – 164* - DC United
2001 - Mark Lisi – 24 – 120 – DC United
2001 - Ryan Nelsen – 24 – 81* - DC United
2001 - Santino Quaranta – 17 -180 – DC United
2002 - Justin Mapp – 18 – 223 - DC United
2002 - Daouda Kante – 22 – 26 – DC United
2003 - Alecko Eskandarian – 21 – 125 – DC United
2003 - David Stokes – 21 – 24 – DC United
2004 - Freddy Adu – 15 – 111*- DC United
2006 - Justin Moose – 21 – 8 – DC United
2007 - Bryan Arguez – 17 – 0 – DC United
2009 - Rodney Wallace – 21 – 60 – DC United
2009 - Chris Pontius – 22 – 70 – DC United
2011 - Perry Kitchen – 19 – 31 – DC United
Total picks: 14
Exceptional picks: 4 (28.5%)
Failures: 4 (28.5%)
Success rate: 0%
2001 - Ali Curtis – 23 – 50 – Tampa Bay
2001 - Craig Demmin – 30 -19 – Tampa Bay
Minimum amount of selections not met
2001 - Duncan Oughton – 24 – 136 - Columbus
2002 - Kyle Martino – 21 – 141 - Columbus
2003 - Diego Walsh – 19 – 30 - Columbus
2004 - Chad Marshall – 20 – 210 - Columbus
2006 - Jason Garey – 21-97 - Columbus
2006 - Kei Kamara – 21 – 145 - Columbus
2008 - Andy Iro – 22 – 71 - Columbus
2010 - Dilly Duka – 21 – 26 - Columbus
2010 - Bright Dike – 23 – 11 - Columbus
2011 - Rich Balchan – 22 – 20 - Columbus
2011 - Justin Meram – 22 – 17 – Columbus
Total picks: 11
Exceptional picks: 4 (36.3%)
Failures: 2 (18.1%)
Success rate: 18.2%
2003 - Pat Noonan – 23 – 172 – New England
2004 - Clint Dempsey – 21 – 71*- New England
2005 - Michael Parkhurst – 21 – 110 - New England
2007 - Wells Thompson – 22 – 129 – New England
2007 - Amaechi Igwe – 18 – 22 – New England
2008 - Rob Valentino – 21 – 0 – New England
2009 - Kevin Alston – 21 – 81 – New England
2010 - Zack Schilawski – 23 – 50 – New England
2011 - A. J. Soares – 22 – 28 – New England
Total picks: 9
Exceptional picks: 5 (55.5%)
Failures: 2 (22.2%)
Success rate: 33.3%
2005 - Nikolas Besagno – 16 – 8 – Salt Lake
2006 - Mehdi Ballouchy – 22 – 163 – Salt Lake
2007 - Chris Seitz – 19 – 31 – Salt Lake
2008 - Tony Beltran – 20 – 78 – Salt Lake
2008 - David Horst – 22 – 19 – Salt Lake
2009 - Jean-Marc Alexandre – 23 – 38 – Salt Lake
2010 - Collen Warner – 22 – 31 – Salt Lake
Total picks: 7
Exceptional picks: 1 (14.2%)
Failures: 3 (42.8%)
Success rate: -28.6%
2005 - Brad Guzan – 21 – 79*- Chivas
2006 - Sacha Kljestan – 19 – 114*- Chivas
2007 - John Cunliffe – 25 – 27 - Chivas
2009 - Michael Lahoud – 23 – 62 - Chivas
2010 - Blair Gavin – 21 – 34 - Chivas
2011 - Zarek Valentin – 20 – 25 - Chivas
2011 - Víctor Mairongo – 23 – 9 – Chivas
Total picks: 7
Exceptional picks: 1 (14.2%)
Failures: 1 (14.2%)
Success rate: 0%
2007 - Maurice Edu – 20 – 38* - Toronto
2007 - Andrew Boyens – 23 – 68 - Toronto
2008 - Julius James – 23 – 84 - Toronto
2008 - Pat Phelan – 22 – 80 - Toronto
2009 - Sam Cronin – 22 – 69 - Toronto
2009 - O'Brian White – 23 – 40 - Toronto
2009 - Stefan Frei – 23 – 81 – Toronto
Total picks: 7
Exceptional picks: 2 (28.5%)
Failures: 0 (0%)
Success rate: 28.5%
2010 - Ike Opara – 21 – 19 – San Jose 2
Minimum amount of selections not met
2009 - Steve Zakuani – 21 – 64 - Seattle
2010 - David Estrada – 22 – 6 - Seattle
Minimum amount of selections not met
2010 - Danny Mwanga – 19 – 54 - Philly
2010 - Amobi Okugo – 19 – 26 - Philly
2010 - Jack McInerney – 18 – 37 - Philly
2011 - Zach MacMath – 20 – 8 - Philly
Minimum amount of selections not met
2011 - Omar Salgado – 18 – 14 - Vancouver
2011 - Michael Nanchoff – 23 – 5 - Vancouver
Minimum amount of selections not met
2011 - Darlington Nagbe – 21 – 28 – Portland
Minimum amount of selections not met
To summarize, the best to worst drafting clubs are:
Los Angeles – 38.5% success rate
Kansas City -- 33.3% (second tie breaker of less failures)
New England – 33.3%
Toronto – 28.5%
New York – 22.2%
Columbus – 18.2%
Chicago – 8.2%
DC United – 0% (first tie breaker of most exceptional picks)
Chivas – 0%
San Jose/Houston – (-10%)
Dallas – (-11.8)
Colorado – (-28.5%)
Salt Lake – (-28.6%)
This concludes our breakdown. We encourage others to look at the data and add to the discussion below.