We're blinded by goals. A lack of goals makes us believe that an offensive player isn't contributing. All other aspects of that player's attacking game are ignored.
The same thing goes the other way. Bradley Wright-Phillips gets a hat trick and suddenly people are talking about him as a MVP candidate. That he's getting goals based on the strong performance of those around him is ignored.
Goals are so rare in the sport that they simply cannot be relied upon to evaluate a player's performance. There just isn't enough data and there is too much luck involved.
That's why I created the (very simple) metric of S+KP -- shots plus key passes.
By its very definition a shot in soccer is a scoring chance. They're rare enough on there own and it's been demonstrated in past that a team requires about nine shots on goal to generate a goal (the 9:1 ratio is really the original advanced stat in soccer and, although a bit too simple, the basic reasoning behind it remains. You can't score without first generating a shot).
Key passes are defined as a pass that leads directly to a scoring attempt by another player.
Thus, S+KP is a measure of who is producing the most scoring chances. A S+KP ranking may not reflect the goal or assist table, but it's likely a better indicator of overall offensive contribution.
Even if a player with a high S+KP ranking isn't scoring it's exceptionally likely that he will eventually get just a little more luck and the goals will come.
So, who is tops in MLS so far in S+KPs? Find out below the jump.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
1. Clint Dempsey (Sea) - 6.6
2. Landon Donovan (LAG) - 5.9
3. Federico Higuain (CBS) - 5.7
4. Diego Valeri (PDX) - 5.5
4. Thierry Henry (NYRB) - 5.5
6. Padro Morales (Van) - 5.2
7. Fabian Espinola (DCU) - 5.0
7. Javier Morales (RSL) - 5.0
9. Giles Barnes (Hou) - 4.6
9. Joao Plata (RSL) - 4.6
For those wondering, both Marco Di Vaio and Jermain Defoe have not played enough to qualify for the list. Di Vaio would rank second if he qualified with a 6.0. Defoe would not make the list, falling even behind his teammate Gilberto (4.0 to 4.3)
The most timely observation from this list is Donovan. The current spin in the US is that Klinsmann was right to exclude him from the World Cup squad based on his form.
As we said off the top, goals blind us.
As long as Donovan is producing the chances we can look at his past history and say with near authority that he will get his goals and that his lack of goals so far are almost certainly an indication of bad luck.
Which is good luck for Germany, Portugal and Ghana.
This post was made during the site's blogging marathon. We are attempting to raise funds to keep the site running through to the end of 2015 (and hopefully beyond).
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