It often seems like football fans spend as much time complaining about what’s wrong with the Gold Cup as they do actually enjoying it for what it is – our regional championship. For Canadians – 25-years and counting – it’s also the biggest event we participate in.
With both MLS sides in a deep funk and the really important World Cup qualifying games still a year away, this year’s tournament could not likely come at a better time. It will fill our void until the Women take the pitch at the end of the month and hopefully distract ourselves from the sight of the Caps and Reds seasons circling the bowl.
Can Canada win it all? It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened – like, say, in 2000.
24th Minute’s breakdown of all the groups, playoffs and matchups after the jump.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
Group A – Mexico, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Cuba
1st – Mexico
The Mexicans have a bad habit of crapping the bed at the start of these types of competitions and they aren’t as far above the competition as they have been in past years. Still, the clear favourite in the group.
El Tri features what is likely the tournament’s biggest name in Javier Hernandez. You don’t make Manchester United fans debate putting you on the pitch ahead of Wayne Rooney unless there is something special there. Chicharito has played a lot of football, and he will be hacked and slashed far more at the Gold Cup than his employers from Trafford would like, but he is the hands down favourite to capture the Golden Boot.
But, it’s Mexico’s unparalleled depth that will carry the day. In a one off game, they are beatable, but over the course of a full group stage there is next to no chance they won’t advance.
2nd – El Salvador
We’re going a bit off the books with this pick. El Salvador was the surprise country of 2010 qualifying, making the hex and pulling off a couple huge upsets at home along the way. Of course they won’t have the same home advantage playing the tournament on US soil, but they do have a rapid and loyal ex-pat population in the US that will help to replicate that.
3rd – Costa Rica
The safe pick is to pick the Costa Ricans send in the group, but this is a program that appears to be going the wrong way. Still, there is talent here. Bryan Ruiz might be the best player in CONCACAF you may not have heard of yet and Christian Bolanos can flat out play. Call it a hunch though: The Ticos will come out flat and an inspired performance by El Salvador will nick them for second in the group. They should do enough to grab one of the two third place quarterfinal spots.
4th – Cuba
The (bad) joke here is whether the Cubans will score more goals than they have defections. Sadly, there is some legitimacy to the joke. The team is made up of entirely of players that play in the domestic league. On paper, they are hugely outmanned by their opponents with heavily Euro-based like-ups. Along with Grenada, the weakest team in the competition.
Group B – Honduras, Guatemala, Jamaica, Grenada
1st – Jamaica
If Pay Onstad had scored two goals that infamous night at BMO in 2008, Jamaica would have advanced to the hex at the expense of Mexico. The Reggae Boyz were playing that well by the end of the semis.
Since then, it’s been a mixed bag of results. However, the new generation of Reggae Boyz – with a heavy MLS flavour to them it must be said -- does now look as if they have become the biggest Caribbean power again. The tournament darkhorse, I see an upset in group B.
2nd – Honduras
Three years ago, this was a team on the ascendancy in the region. It was clearly No 3 ahead of Costa Rica and, on a perfect day, they could almost see the US and Mexico ahead of them. However injuries, most notably to David Suazo, has stalled Honduras’ raise. A strong foundation of players now in Europe along with a better than given credit for national league keeps them right there in the mix, but this Gold Cup could be telling for Honduras. Were they a one and out World Cup team, or are they going to keep moving forward and challenge for the No 3 slot each cycle?
3rd – Guatemala
This is clearly the weakest group at the tournament, with both Guatemala and Grenada seemingly out of their element. The fear teams in other groups may have is that one of the two will beat up the other and grab one of the best third place finisher quarter spots. Maybe if Carlos Ruiz gets really hot, but...unlikely.
4th – Grenada
Their starting keeper plays for Harrow Borough Football Club in the Isthmian League Premier Division. That would be the seventh tier of English football. Do we really need me to break this team down more?
Group C – USA, Canada, Panama, Guadalupe
1st – USA
They are at home and they have brought their A team. Best XI v best XI the Americans are the top team in CONCACAF now. It’s only when depth kicks in that the Mexicans have an edge. The Yanks have questions, but they are more World Cup questions then CONCACAF ones. They have the best keeper in the region and, likely, the best midfield. As well, they have a true game breaker in Landon Donovan and a great glue player in Michael Bradley. Up top...is a weakness, but one that all but a couple teams in the region would kill for. Canada gets a break by playing them first and might be able to squeeze a draw, but it should be a walk in the group.
2nd – Canada
For all Canada’s problems, playing well at the Gold Cup has never been one of them. Traditionally the Canucks get better the longer they are in a camp and the Gold Cup is about the only time that happens. Josh Simpson is playing out of his head and Stephen Hart seems to be about the only man in Canada that can harness Dwayne De Rosario. There are big questions in goal and at the back, but it looks like this team will score and be fun to watch. It says here they are an easy second in the group and they may even pull off a result against the Americans in a game that is sure to mean more to the team wearing red than the team coming off a Spanish hangover.
3rd -- Guadeloupe
They lack stars, but they will play organized and intense. This is the Island’s World Cup and, it must be remembered, they were semi-finalists in 2007. A great deal of the players have played in the French system. They will be tricky. So tricky, it says here that they will grab one of the best third place quarterfinal slots.
4th – Panama
It’s an experienced team, but one that has under achieved in recent years after seeming to be on the breakthrough in 2005 (although one must be careful to never read too much into “off” – i.e. no Confederation Cup spot – Gold Cup results). This group is probably the most balanced top to bottom and Panama won’t be out of it. However, there is more talent on Canada (and the draw was favourable to Canada in that they play Panama last, after being together for some time) and, at the risk of cliché, Guadeloupe might just be a little more desperate to win. It says here Panama is the disappointment of the tournament.
Those results would set-up the following quarter-finals:
El Salvador v Honduras
Mexico v Guadeloupe
Jamaica v Canada
USA v Costa Rica
Honduras recovers after a tough group stage to send the upstarts from El Salvador home; Mexico cruses against Guadeloupe – desire and effort can only take you so far; Canada edges Jamaica on penalties and Costa Rica puts a scare into the USA, but the Americans are too good.
Semis:
Honduras v Mexico
Canada v USA
As much as I want to predict something other than a USA v Mexico final...
Final:
Mexico v USA
It won`t be as one sided as the 5-0 win two years ago, but Mexico repeats over the maybe-just-a-little-too-confident Americans. Let’s go with 2-1 AET. The Little Pea with the winner.