Although they'll never admit it until it is statistically true, Toronto FC are out of the MLS playoff chase.
With 11 matches to play and only 18 points in hand, the fact that the Reds are ridiculous long shots to make the post-season should come as no surprise to anyone reading this.
Sure, they could go on an unprecedented run and start ringing off win-upon-win, forcing their way into a race that they seemed out of a month ago. But it's more likely that TFC -- featuring a large number of players who weren't even Reds two weeks ago -- will continue on the steep learning curve that has defined the 2011 MLS campaign, a curve that does not allow for a quick turnaround in an epically bad season.
But there is still hope for TFC in 2011, and it comes in the form of the CONCACAF Champions League.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
As bad as Toronto have been this year, they've been good enough to win the Canadian Championship for a third consecutive time. What that says about the state of Canadian professional soccer is another conversation for another day. Right now, all the focus is -- and should be -- placed upon the hugely unknown quantity that is Real Esteli of the Nicaraguan top flight.
While they are hugely unknown, they are not completely unknown to observers of the Canadian game. The Montreal Impact faced the Nicaraguan side during their magical run through the 2008-09 Champions League, with Esteli providing the first international test for Montreal in the same stage that TFC now meets them.
The Impact edged their preliminary round opponents by the absolute slimmest of margins, a 1-0 aggregate victory over two legs. Montreal won the first leg at Stade Saputo, then squeaked out a scoreless draw in the return leg -- which was actually played in Honduras as Esteli's stadium was deemed unsuitable -- to move on to the group stage.
What the scoreline doesn't show is how terrible Esteli were. Montreal lack of finishing flattered the Central Americans, to the point where any halfway decent play in the final third would have resulted in a couple of blowouts rather than a nerve-wracking one-goal victory.
Regardless, that was three years ago, and now Esteli will be able to play in their home venue next week in the second leg. No team should be judged solely on how they were three years ago, so TFC will be looking at this from a fresh perspective. Hell, there isn't even a single player left on Toronto's squad that was around back in August of '08, so the Reds know more than anyone just how much a team can change in that time.
Nevertheless, the experience will be a new one for this current TFC side. For one, this will likely be the only time this year that Toronto will go into a game as the decided favourite, so that'll be a learning experience in its own right.
For their part, the Reds will need to act like they are favoured, not giving an inch to an opponent that will no doubt be looking for any way to head back home with an advantage. That means going at the Central American side full-throttle from the get-go, getting the reduced, but enthusiastic, BMO Field crowd into the match and keeping them there.
In light of their upcoming schedule, Toronto will likely want to put this tie to bed early so they can rest a few starters in the return leg. Expect to see a strong starting lineup from Aron Winter, with the Reds putting their best foot forward in the only competition they have left to seriously play for.
Milos Kocic looks like he'll get the nod for the first time this year, if only to give Stefan Frei some much-needed time off after picking up a knock over the weekend at Kansas City. Also looking likely to return to the lineup are Canadian central midfield duo Terry Dunfield and Julian de Guzman, with Dunfield probably playing more minutes than JDG.
The new DPs, who have both played a ton of minutes since debuting last week, will probably want to get as much playing time in this one as they can, in order to regain full match fitness. Don't be surprised to see Torsten Frings as a starter again, replaced by de Guzman somewhere around the hour mark.
If ever there was a time for Danny Koevermans to really put a stamp on this team, it's in this match. A couple of goals either scored or created by the big man will do wonders for a side that faces the most gruelling of trips just to make it to the next leg of this series.
The back line won't be tested nearly as much as they have in the recent past, but it's still the most unsettled part of Toronto's lineup. Will Ty Harden jump back into the centre? Has the Richard Eckersley experiment at CB ended? What of Eddy Viator, who can play at RB and CB but has looked comfortable in neither spot thus far? And who starts on the left side?
While it is Toronto's offence that'll likely receive most of the attention on Wednesday night, it is the beleaguered defence that could end up defining the match.
Scary, huh?
Toronto FC v. Real Esteli
Wednesday, July 27, 2011. 8:00pm EDT.
BMO Field. Toronto, ON.
Watch: Setanta Sports Canada (replay on Rogers Sportsnet ONE at 11:00pm EDT)
Listen: Fan590.com
Rudi Schuller occasionally contributes Toronto FC and Canadian national team content to the 24th Minute. He manages the Euro File here at Canadian Soccer News, and is MLSsoccer.com's beat writer for all things concerning Canada's men's national teams. Follow Rudi on Twitter, @RudiSchuller.