TFC opened its 2013 preseason yesterday. It was a familiar result. They lost to Columbus.
An anecdote: Late in the second half I watched Matt Stinson put a nice little ball into the box. The Reds couldn’t convert the chance, but it was a skilled bit of work by Stinson and it gave hope that the young Canadian may be ready to bounce back from an injury riddled 2012.
As I watched the pass sail in I thought to myself that Stinson was having a “great game.” I found myself getting excited by the possibility of Stinson becoming a regular starter -- hell a MLS all-star -- in 2013.
Then I slapped myself.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
The truth was I was watching a mediocre web stream with bad camera angles. It was also the first time I noticed Stinson. Although I saw a few more good things from him after that play, I hardly could say that my analysis of his game was overly sophisticated. I couldn’t watch his positioning, his work rate off the ball, or the more mundane, workmanlike aspects of his game.
But, I could see a nice pass. And, I could get excited by that pass. Which, in turn, could make me excited about his potential.
You see I want Stinson to be successful. I also believe he could be a dark horse to breakout for the Reds in 2013. Therefore, his good plays stood out, were exaggerated in my mind.
It’s called confirmation bias – the tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.
TFC fans (all fans, really) struggle to see confirmation bias in themselves.
Here in Toronto that confirmation bias is as often expressed negatively as it is positively. You don’t have to look hard to find people that are willing to write off 2013 for TFC because they allowed on a set-piece, Richard Eckersly was sending hopeful long-balls straight to the Crew and because Ryan Nelsen wore shorts yesterday.
The truth is yesterday taught us nothing. It was the first game of pre-season and, unless you were in Orlando, you didn’t really see it all that well. Any conclusions you drew from the game are assumptions based on your preconditioned belief about the team.
Those assumptions might turn out to be right. There is a lot of history with TFC to point to, after all.
However, it’s way, way, way, way, way too early to tell.
Way.