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  • Sober Second Thoughts: Adjusting expectations


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    Within the context of her sport, Christine Sinclair is, clearly, the best soccer player this country has ever produced. Although claims that she is the best player in the world are more than a tad bit biased, she's legitimately world class. Top 20, for sure. Maybe top 10.

    Amongst non-hockey team sport athletes she's in the conversation for best Canadian of all-time regardless of gender (it's hard to argue against Steve Nash, but Sinclair might be the only other one in the conversation). Again, this is about context - Sinclair dominates her sport at a level that very, very few Canadians ever have.

    On Wednesday in Moncton, Sinclair proved her worth yet again with a last second touch to give Canada a 1-0 win. It was about the only thing worth talking about on the night. It was a tepid performance by a team that has not yet fully adjusted to new head coach John Herdman's tactics.

    With just two months to the start of the London Olympics, there isn't a lot of chance yet for them to do so. This is not a team that looks close to being a medal contender right now. Saying this isn't meant to be cruel. It just is what it is.

    [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

    With the team mostly invisible in the lead up to Germany, many in Canada found a false sense of confidence. Some were even suggesting that they were darkhorse contenders in the World Cup.

    It didn't take long for those ideas to be shown as horribly misguided in Germany. Although Canada probably wasn't the worst team at the tournament (despite their last place finish) they weren't close to the truly elite. And that brings us back to the idea of context.

    Specifically, what does Canada's ranking in women's football really mean within the context of that particular sport? It's an important thing to understand because many casual soccer fans look at the No 7 (they float between No 9 and 6, depending on the month) ranking and assume that this is a powerhouse team playing truly elite soccer. That, in turn, puts unreasonable expectations on what the team is capable of.

    In the men's game the No 7 team in world can beat anyone on any day and would be a favourite to win the World Cup. The No 7 team in women's football is in a far different place.

    The (unfortunate) thing is that there are, at best, 20 countries in the world that put any legitimate resources in the women's game. If you're talking about significant resources that are at all equitable to how the support the Men's game, that number drops to about 10-12. Let's not dismiss the importance of the fact that Canada is part of that group (it should be celebrated), but let's also consider Canada's standing in context.

    It's middling. On a perfect day they can compete with the elite teams (but usually don't win), they can and do beat the very good teams, but it's hit and miss and they tend to handle those teams that are ranked low. We saw it against China - the Chinese are also middling, but a little lower than Canada.

    A 1-0 win is about what you might expect. In many ways the Canadian women's ranking, in context, is similar to the Men's. Yes, you read that right - the Canadian women are not all that more successful (again, in context) than the men. The chance of the women winning a medal are about the same as the men qualifying to Brazil -- possible, sure, but most understand this cycle is more about setting up the future than actually getting something done now.

    The women host the World Cup in 2015 and the men are looking to build off the regional youth success we've seen lately. Fans of the game need to understand that and adjust expectations - if Canada can get to the quarters in London it's a great accomplishment. It's something to build off of. It would be a shame to see a good result like that tarnished by negativity that comes out of unreasonable and, you got it, out of context expectations.



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