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  • Regression to the mean: A story about the Montreal Impact


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    This is not for Montreal Impact fans. They aren't blind. They can judge for themselves what the state of their team is. They also know that last night was a bit of an embarrassment, both in terms of the score and the shameful way some of the players took their exit.

    This article is for TFC fans, especially those that have been preaching about how wonderful the Impact were put together. If I have to hear another TFC fan tell me how much they wish Joey Saputo was running TFC, so help me God...

    Saputo undoubtably cares about the Impact. He should since it's his favourite play toy. Throughout the years, his fingertips have been all over the team and, most importantly, his money has been too. In the lower levels that led to the Impact having a good degree of success.

    Money really can buy titles in the second tier. Look at the New York Cosmos right now.

    Not so much in MLS. In MLS you need good, smart management. There is literally no evidence Saputo is that. His "passion" is a thin line from meddling when the club starts to lose.

    [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

    The 2013 Impact finished with more points than their play would suggest they should have. I'll be publishing league-wide stats demonstrating this early next week, but simply put Montreal finished near the bottom of the league (close to TFC, actually) in the incredibly predictive stat TSR. Hockey fans can understand TSR to roughly be the same thing as Corsi in that sport. Those unfamiliar can think about it as a measure of how much a team is controlling play and creating scoring chances. If a team is scoring a lot with a low TSR number more often than not there will be a correction and that team will crash back to earth -- like, say, the Impact did this year (San Jose's slip in 2013 could also have been predicted by TSR).

    Basically, the Impact's great start (and it was an amazing start) came down to a hot striker (who is close to the end and inevitable slow down in production) and a whole lot of luck. Good luck replicating that in 2014.

    History tells us that if the Impact struggle out of the gate next year Saputo will demonstrate some of that infamous "passion" and make changes.

    Constant change is a surefire way to ensure constant losing in MLS. But, you already knew that TFC fans, didn't you.

    There are a lot of teams in MLS that Toronto should want to copy. The Impact are absolutely not one of them.

    If you want to yell at me while the comments are down on CSN you can do so on Twitter @24thminute



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