In our first deeper look at the advanced measures for TFC we evaluate the dribbling stats. The reason I chose to track dribbling in the first place was to illustrate a core point about the value of looking at advanced measures – that they take the fan’s eye out of the equation.
Fans (and managers and scouts and everyone looking to make subjective evaluations of players) are blinded by outliers. The mundane, but needed, aspects of a player’s game gets overlooked in favour of the spectacular – both negative and positive.
Perhaps nothing illustrates that more than the dribble. When a player nutmegs the defender to create something the crowd goes wild. That play is remembered and the player is viewed as being skillful and therefore useful to the team.
It doesn’t matter if the player is a one trick pony. If he can do the spectacular – and beating a man on the dribble is just that – then he will be a fan favourite.
Call it the Joao Plata rule. Plata’s usefulness was overstated tremendously due to his ability to occasionally (rarely, actually, but…see above) beat a man on the dribble.
As we’ve seen with TFC’s dribbling numbers, it’s an inefficient way to advance the club’s position. But, what if TFC is just bad at dribbling, you might be thinking. Let’s have a deeper look and see.
We tracked the two other Canadian teams, as well as Plata’s, dribbling stats through five weeks. Below the jump, the results:
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
[TABLE=width: 500]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Attempts[/TD]
[TD]Successful[/TD]
[TD]Failed[/TD]
[TD]Success percentage[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Osorio[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Earnshaw[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]23.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]O'Dea[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]21.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dunfield[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]19.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bostock[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]15.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ephraim[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]13.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lambe[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eckersley[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hall[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]6.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bekker[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Califf[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Morgan[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Russell[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Silva[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Vancouver
[TABLE=width: 500]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Attempts[/TD]
[TD]Successful[/TD]
[TD]Failed[/TD]
[TD]Success percentage[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Young-Pyo[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]13.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rochat[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]3.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]O'Brien[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]6.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rusin[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]7.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kobayashi[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]17.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Koffie[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattocks[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hurtzog[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]33.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hurtado[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]19.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Davidson[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]8.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reo-Coker[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]6.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Manneh[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miller[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]3.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanvezzo[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]12.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Montreal
[TABLE=width: 500]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Attempts[/TD]
[TD]Successful[/TD]
[TD]Failed[/TD]
[TD]Success percentage[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wenger[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Iapichino[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brovsky[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]5.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Camara[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]7.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ferrari[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nesta[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]5.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Di Vaio[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mapp[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]7.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Warner[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Amaud[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]16.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romero[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]21.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mallace[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Martins[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]10.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernier[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]20.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nyassi[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]17.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pisanu[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]28.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Plata FC
[TABLE=width: 500]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Attempts[/TD]
[TD]Successful[/TD]
[TD]Failed[/TD]
[TD]Success percentage[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]JOAO PLATA!!1![/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Let's look at the team numbers
[TABLE=width: 500]
[TR]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Attempts[/TD]
[TD]Successful[/TD]
[TD]Failed[/TD]
[TD]Success percentage[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Montreal[/TD]
[TD]429[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]376[/TD]
[TD]12.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vancouver[/TD]
[TD]430[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]379[/TD]
[TD]11.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Toronto[/TD]
[TD]451[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]399[/TD]
[TD]11.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
So, Toronto is, in fact, the worst of the three teams -- by 0.8%. Put in perspective, if the numbers hold, Montreal will have 422 successful dribbles at year's end, Vancouver 406 and Toronto 395.
Is 0.79 less successful dribbles a game as compared to Montreal something Toronto fans should worry about? That's up to you, but when you consider that about 88% of dribble attempts fail it seems like a bit of an overreaction if you do.
That's especially the case when you look at the overall numbers from an individual perspective. Since dribbling is arguably the most individual of acts in an otherwise team game (passing stats depend on the receiver as well as the passer, shooting stats need a shooter to get good service, etc) then a couple dynamic players can make up for an overall weakness on the club.
Limiting it to players with more than 15 attempts, the top five individual dribblers on the Canadian clubs.
[TABLE=width: 500]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Club[/TD]
[TD]Attempts[/TD]
[TD]Successful[/TD]
[TD]Failed[/TD]
[TD]Success percentage[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pisanu[/TD]
[TD]Montreal[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]28.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Earnshaw[/TD]
[TD]Toronto[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]23.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]O'Dea[/TD]
[TD]Toronto[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]21.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernier[/TD]
[TD]Montreal[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]20.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dunfield[/TD]
[TD]Toronto[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]19.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
To me the most interesting player on that list is O'Dea. For a defender to be that successful is saying something, as his dribbles aren't generally in the attacking zone, trying to create. Rather, they are dribbles while under pressure in the defensive zone to maintain possession. Generally in MLS defenders take the row z approach to things -- as reflected in the defensive stat of "clearance."
The clearance approach was one TFC used almost exclusively last season, much to the distane of many fans (HOOFBALL!). Does O'Dea's numbers indicate a change in philosophy under Ryan Nelsen as compared to Paul Mariner's dumbed down approach to defending?
Using a four game sample from last September, let's look.
[TABLE=width: 500]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Attempts[/TD]
[TD]Successful[/TD]
[TD]Failed[/TD]
[TD]Success percentage[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]7.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]21.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Clearly there has been a change in direction under Nelsen with O'Dea given more of a green light to dribble out of trouble.
Finally a word on Plata. As I've argued in this space before, Plata's numbers continue to demonstrate that he's overrated -- even just looking at the one area of his game that is perceived to be his strong suit. A 4% success rate with an above average amount of attempts (49) is a net loss for any team
And those numbers are being put up in Salt Lake, which plays a positive game. There was some suggestion that Plata was being misused by Mariner last year and thus his poor numbers. As we see with O'Dea, Mariner's style did impact some numbers, but the consistency of Plata's lack of production suggests that he is what he is.
What do you think of the numbers?