Predicting an U-23 tournament is a bit of a crapshoot. Youth teams don’t play enough and the Olympic age group, in particular, is a one every four year proposition.
However, making impossible predictions is what we get paid the big bucks to do here at CSN. After the jump is a brief handicap of Men’s Olympic qualifying, which kicks of tonight in Nashville.
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Group A
1st – United States
The US is the clear favourite to win the tournament and a dark horse medal contender for London. They have played more preparation games than anyone in this group and have had a few impressive performances.
What really has lips flapping south of the 49 is a 2-0 thrashing of the Mexicans last month. Not only did the Americans win the game, but also they dominated possession and chances. Some have suggested it was one of the most impressive wins the US has ever had over a Mexican side at any level.
With players like Freddy Adu, Brek Shea and Juan Agudelo, on the roster this is a team with scoring potential. Combine that with home field advantage and it’s hard to see the Yanks finishing anywhere but in one of the top two positions in Group A
2nd – Canada
This is likely the most talented Canadian u23 team in history. The question is can they gel fast enough. No team here has had less preparation time than the Canucks.
In past years it would have likely been an issue that was too great to overcome. However, the Canadians have a new advantage that they have never experienced before – club familiarity. A significant amount of the projected starters come from either Toronto FC or Vancouver and more than half are from the Southern Ontario youth system.
Unfortunately, the most important game of the tournament is likely first. If Canada can get three points against El Salvador it should be enough to get them through to a one off game to get to London.
3rd – El Salvador
This is primarily a domestic based team that will be tricky, but is beatable. They are led by Lester Blanco, who was a force in CCL play this year and is a star in the El Salvadorian league.
Playing in the United States in an area that is not likely to have a massive ex-pat community, El Salvador will miss some of those intangible factors that make them dangerous against their more physical northern opponents. As with Canada, their tournament likely hinges on game one.
4th – Cuba
Who knows, really? Unfortunately the Cubans might be more focused on keeping all their players in camp than on winning games. At this event four years ago seven players defected.
Still a closed society, it’s hard to get a gage on how good Cuba is. However, past performances suggest that the team will be organized but ultimately overmatched. If they take any points it will be considered an upset – and a disaster to the team they take points off of.
Group B
1st – Mexico
Mexico is loaded, but the lingering question of that 2-0 loss to the US remains -- that and a terrible tournament four years ago.
It’s a temptation of many to pick the Mexicans second in the group. In some American circles there is talk about how it might be better to manipulate results in Group A to avoid a potential winner take all semi with the Mexicans.
Such talk is more than a bit presumptuous and is putting too much stalk on one result. Mexico is the class of the group. If they play up to their ability they should capture top spot.
2nd – Panama
Across the board there is an uprising of Panamanian soccer. The u23 program is no exception.
Panama has a solid domestic group complimented by several players playing at a high level in South America. They are confident and have four players that were part of the senior national side that captured fourth at the Gold Cup.
3rd – Honduras
As Panama goes up, Honduras seems to be going the other way (something Canadian senior national team fans may want to consider for later this summer…).
Honduras has had a lot of success at the u23 level and should not be counted out, but this looks like a down cycle. There are no real stars on the mostly domestic-based team.
4th Trinidad & Tobago
They will be organized and hey will play a counter game with some flare. In other words, they will play like most Caribbean underdogs.
Almost entirely domestic-based, T&T are a clear No 4 in the group and rivaled only by Cuba as weakest team in the tournament.