The banner read “No Impact Since 2008”. Members of the Montreal supporters group UM02 were angry and, in truth, they had every right to be. After losing to Toronto FC 2-0 last Wednesday night in Toronto the Impact have gone, incredibly, nearly five years without a victory in the Canadian Championship. It’s a winless streak that stands at a Paul Mariner-like 13 games currently. Wednesday night, for Montreal to advance and eliminate Toronto, the Impact won’t just have to win for the first time since June 25th, 2008, they’ll have to win by three goals.
The interesting question is how much owner Joey Saputo, head coach Marco Schallibaum, and the rest of the Montreal Impact can really afford to care. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The expectation was probably that a mostly reserve line-up, reinforced by the influential Patrice Bernier in the middle of the park, could at least grind out a draw against a similarly second choice Reds and leave the Impact merely needing a home win to advance while keeping the first team focused on league success.
Whether that decision had an influence or not the second half of the strategy was successful and a win over a woeful Chicago side on the weekend has vaulted the Impact back into first place in the Eastern Conference. Toronto meanwhile suffered a demoralizing home defeat to the New York Red Bulls that quickly took the sheen off the club’s first win since their home opener in early March.
Really, both sides have ample reason to continue their strategy of fielding predominantly reserve line-ups: Montreal doesn’t need success in the cup to substitute for poor league form and Toronto’s youngsters and back-ups did well enough to deserve a second go. Injuries, fluctuations in form, and a marquee new signing will likely result in some rotation in both squads but it wouldn’t be shocking if relatively similar line-ups to those from last week take the field in Montreal.
The name Toronto supporters will be watching for on the club’s official Twitter account is that of Matias Laba. The signing of the Argentine central midfielder to a Young Designated Player was announced just ahead of the Red Bulls match and it has been suggested that he could be ready for action and begin his integration into the squad as early as the game in Montreal.
More important could be the availability of Justin Braun. TFC’s attack has looked more potent with the big American putting himself about in a target man role and causing problems for opposing defenses but the injury that forced his removal in the first half against New York means he’s unlikely to be back in the team. Whether Toronto’s attack can adjust and whether head coach Ryan Nelsen risks starting Robert Earnshaw are both open questions.
Ultimately, this is a game that is more likely to be decided by defense rather than offense. Because of the two-legged nature of the tie and Montreal’s failure to pick up an away goal the Impact will have to concentrate as much on preventing Toronto from scoring as they do on scoring themselves. While the Reds will know that a single goal will likely be enough to put them through they’ll also know that holding the Impact to a goal or less will see the tie out for certain.
So, while both teams have an incentive to attack they have an even greater incentive to not risk anything at the back. Montreal can absolutely not afford to concede the first goal while the Reds will be comfortable with the score line and unlikely to take needless chances. Unless the players ignore the tactics of their coaches or the match becomes an unexpected goalfest – which would favour Toronto – do not be surprised if the opening half is a cagey affair with only careful attempts at moving forward in numbers from either side.
Of course TFC have shown over recent weeks that they’re decidedly uncomfortable administering a one goal lead in the closing stages of a game, so, if victory remains within reach, it’s fairly certain that the Impact will pile on the pressure in the closing stages. The young Reds held out last week in Toronto though and have left the club in a great position to advance; unless Montreal can overcome that two goal deficit their lack of Impact on the tournament is set to continue.