Possession is a funny thing in soccer. For a long time it was undervalued, especially in places where the English influence was too strong.
English tactics were based on the misguided notion that the longer a team held the ball the less likely it would be that they would score--goals happened after a quick succession of direct passing that got the ball into the 18-yard box as quickly as possible.
This thinking is why my greatest memory of my youth soccer experience is my coach screaming BOOT IT from the sideline.
HOOFBALL! is no longer in fashion. In many ways that's a good thing--if I was allowed to actually, you know, dribble the ball, maybe I would have been just a mediocre player rather than a terrible one.
However, it isn't all perfect. Rather than understanding that there is more than one way to play the game we switched our obsession 180 degrees. Now, we are possession zealots.
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That possession numbers are held up as the be all end all statistic in any game. If a team loses with a high possession number then our instincts are to suggest that they were unlucky. We rarely consider that the opposition's tactics played a role in the number.
What's especially interesting in MLS is that it's a league where there is almost no correlation between possession and winning. Actually, there might be a slight correlation: the team with less possession wins more often than the team with the possession advantage does
Odd, eh?
Why that is is subject to debate and study and will be something we watch throughout the year.
With the caution that one game in isolation does not tell us anything about long-term trends, let's start by trying to evaluate Toronto's win over Seattle.
In Seattle, it's being suggested by some that TFC were lucky to win based on their 32% possession number. Beyond the obvious fact that a visiting team that's up two goals 24 minutes into a game is going to adjust tactics to defend more, what did allow Toronto to win with such a low number?
An idea could be gleaned from looking at Seattle's team passing. Seattle completed an astounding 622 passes. However, 530 were short passes with the vast majority taking place in the middle of the pitch. Although, Seattle's 68% possession number was the highest of the week, a statistically average 33% of the game was played in Toronto's defensive third.
That suggests that Toronto gave up possession in the middle of the pitch as part of an effort to maintain defensive organization.
The TSR ratio backs up that suggestion. Although Seattle dominated pure possession they did not create a great deal of opportunities from that. Total shots were just 13-9 in favour of the Sounders, with Toronto actually directing more on target (4-2) than Seattle.
If TFC were truly bunkering (which implies they were holding on for dear life) then you'd expect much more attempts than 13. No, what Toronto did was adjust tactics to reflect a road lead.
Where TFC's play really becomes impressive is when you look at individual performance. Using Whoscored.com's stats, we see that four of the top five performances were by TFC players. Those top five WSR's were: Bradley (8.07), Defoe (7.94), Osorio (7.89), Alonso (7.74) and Henry (7.65).
The spine of TFC -- and building a spine is how you build successfully build MLS teams -- vastly outplayed Seattle. Additionally, the game's top player was, well, amazing.
If Michael Bradley plays at this level all year he will be the runaway MVP of MLS. Sadly, I can't back this opinion up with numbers, but I'm pretty confident Saturday's numbers would be among the best single game performances in TFC history.
Let's take a closer look. On the defensive side of things Bradley did exactly what you'd hope a No 6 would do. He had 7 tackles, 2 interceptions, 2 clearances and 1 arial duel. His Defensive Involvement (11) number was the game's second best among non-defenders behind Jonathan Osorio's 12 (!).
But, it was the offensive numbers that really jumped out. Bradley had 1 shot, 4 key passes, 1 dribble, 2 won fouls and only turned the ball over once.
His S+KP number was by far the best in the game.
However, Bradley's performance was expected. Doneil Henry's was not and it might have been the biggest bright spot on the day.
Henry had the best Defensive Involvement number of the day with 5 arial duels, 3 tackles, 2 interceptions and 13 clearances (23 DI). As a comparison former Defender of the Year Chad Marshall had a line of 6-2-3-5--16.
Again, one game. But, it was a remarkable game that looks even better the deeper you look at it.
Later today we will have the week 2 league leaders in our advanced stat categories posted.