Gilbarreto.
It's not nice -- not for Gilberto, nor for poor, misunderstood Chad Barrett. But, the mash-up of former Reds plumber Barrett and current DP Gilberto is something that has happened in the first half of the MLS season.
This isn't an easy market. It will turn on you in a heartbeat. Often to its own detriment (Google "Larry Murphy--run out of town" for an example of how). However, that doesn't mean the market force isn't sometimes right. Mista, for instance, likely deserved his sending off.
The point being we should neither dismiss concerns about Gilberto nor make a run to Target for pitchforks.
Instead we should take try and take an objective view of his play. As always in this space, we will use numbers to try to do that.
What we did is identify the biggest underachievers in MLS in the pre-World Cup period. Limiting it to regular playing forwards with fewer than four goals we identified 12 players.
Both Barrett and Gilberto were in that 12, although we might have stretched the criteria to include The Chad because it was just too perfect.
What we were looking for is any clue of whether one of those 12 players might break out in the post-World Cup period. We looked at three measures -- shots plus key passes, aerial wins and turn overs plus fouls.
Here's what we found.
Shots plus key passes is a measure that identifies scoring chances created. Although goals are clearly vital to a forward, the truth is there is a bit too much luck involved to only look at them. Creating chances is a fuller measure of a forward's reach.
The rankings:
1. Landon Donovan (LAG) - 5.7
2. Marco Di Vaio (Mtr) - 4.9
3. Steven Lenhart (SJ) - 4.8
4. Giles Barnes (Hou) - 4.5
5. Gilberto (TFC) - 4.0
6. Andrew Wenger (Phi) - 3.1
7. Jairo Arrieta (CBS) - 2.9
8. Kenny Cooper (Sea) - 2.9
9. Kamani Hill (Col) - 2.4
10. Darren Mattocks (Van) - 2.3
11. Eddie Johnson (DCU) - 2.2
12. Chad Barrett (Sea) - 1.5
As it relates to Gilberto his 4.0 number indicates that, statistically speaking, he should be due for more goals. It also suggests that Chad Barrett should not be compared with Gilberto, no matter how perfect his name mashes with his.
Aerial battles are pretty self-evident. Not every forward is good in the air, but being good in the air is a useful skill for a forward.
1. Lenhart - 6.8
2. Johnson - 4.3
3. Gilberto - 2.8
3. Barnes - 2.8
5. Mattocks - 2.3
6. Wenger - 2.1
7. Barrett - 1.7
8. Cooper - 1.1
9. Hill - 1.0
10. Arrieta - 0.5
10. Donovan - 0.5
12. Di Vaio - 0.3
Again, top half. Not at the level of Lenhart, who is one of the most intriguing players in MLS (especially when you see the turn-over stats).
Speaking of...
Turn over plus fouls is an illustration of how often a player gives the ball to the opponent. Obviously. Fans don't always see fouls as turn-overs, but that's exactly what they are.
1. Barrett - 1.9
2. Barnes - 2.6
2. Cooper - 2.6
4. Arrieta - 3.0
5. Donovan - 3.1
6. Hill - 3.2
7. Di Vaio - 3.6
8. Johnson - 3.7
9. Wenger - 4.0
10. Gilberto - 4.1
11. Mattocks - 4.5
12. Lenhart - 6.9
And, yes, the majority of Lenhart's turnovers are fouls. Bloody goon. Although, in fairness, the guys that are aggressive in the air do get more fouls. Just not all of them throw elbows like Gordie Howe.
A few things jump out: Yes, Gilberto's numbers suggest a forward correction. However, he's not the best of the underachievers. Gilberto needs to do more. Period.
Whitecaps fans might be concerned with Mattocks. We'll let them decide for themselves.
Barnes is an interesting pick-up by Houston that few people are talking about.
What are your thoughts?