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  • Hindsight bias and TFC


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    What went wrong with Toronto FC?

    It’s a simple question that doesn’t have a simple answer – at least not one that everyone can agree with. There are many that want to say that it’s all on management. No doubt a lot is, but suggesting that a simple change in management would immediately change things is a bit naïve.

    First off, you don’t know who Toronto could bring in at this point. Without any indication that there is a plan to bring in a MLS experienced president it would be the same people replacing Paul Mariner that hired him in the first place.

    Needing a quick solution you’d likely be looking at an internal hire.

    Come on down Jason Bent, you’re TFC’s manager of the week…(or, God help him, Danny Dichio).

    [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

    Regardless, in Toronto frustration has reached the point that most just want to blow the whole thing up. Outside Toronto, most preach more patience. No one wants to listen to those calls.

    There will be no answers today. There will be no answers soon and none, likely, until next season. We simply don’t know what the right approach is.

    So, all we can do is look for past failures. Finding more and new scapegoats might not help, but it may briefly make fans feel better.

    So, let's look at the history of discovery signings post Mo Johnston.

    Since Johnston gave Preki the keys to the car in 2010, TFC has signed 25 players either through discovery or of waivers – i.e. these are free players.

    You have to nail your free players if you are going to be successful.

    Those players are:

    Under Preki

    Martin Šarić (has played 2 games in Paraguay since being released)

    Jon Conway (retired after playing 6 games for Chicago)

    Dan Gargan (has played 30 games for Chicago)

    Miloš Kočić (Still with TFC)

    Raivis Hščanovičs (has played 38 games in Latvian league)

    Maxim Usanov (has not played since)

    Adrian Cann (still with TFC)

    Mista (retired – did not play after TFC)

    Maicon Santos (has played 30 games for DC United and FC Dallas)

    So, Preki found two players that managed to play for TFC and two that stuck in MLS. It’s likely that most TFC fans watching the current season could see a role for both Gargan and Santos, two players that fell victim to the move to a more possession-based system under Winter.

    No team is perfect with its discovery signings, but a 50 percent success rate isn’t all that bad.

    Now let’s look at Winter’s first year.

    Elbekay Bouchiba (has not played)

    Nick Soolsma (has not played)

    Javier Martina (has not played)

    Gianluca Zavarise (has not played)

    Mikael Yourassowsky (has not played)

    Dicoy Williams (still with TFC)

    Danny Koevermans (Still with TFC)

    Torsten Frings (Still with TFC)

    Eddy Viator (played one game in Malaysia)

    Peri Marošević (played three games in Croatia)

    Three of 10 players – two high profile DPs – are left. More concerning is the fact that 50 percent of the Winter signings have yet to play a game for another club, a number that goes up to 70 percent if you include players that have played less than five games after leaving Toronto.

    Regardless of whether that record is Winter’s fault or shared fault between Mariner and Frings you cannot debate the fact that there was a serious problem with identifying MLS talent.

    To fully evaluate this season we’ll have to wait until the season ends and there is a full release of players. But, for now we look at 2012 under Winter and Mariner.

    Reggie Lambe (Still with TFC)

    Geovanny Caicedo (played seven games in Ecuador)

    Miguel Aceval (has not played since)

    Logan Emory (still with TFC)

    Freddy Hall (Still with TFC)

    Darren O'Dea (Still with TFC)

    So far four of six have stuck and one -- O’Dea -- has likely improved the club. Lambe is a work in progress, but will likely be back in 2012. Regardless, as stated, it’s too early to fully evaluate.

    The one lesson that does jump out is that Preki may be remembered poorly but he found four useful players and, you could argue, a couple of his other guys might have stuck around if he had.

    He didn’t play an attractive game and there were problems in the dressing room at the end – it’s long been suggested that TFC’s star players, in particular Dwayne de Rosario, told TFC management that it was Preki or him. They didn’t care for the authoritarian attitude he brought and felt that they would respond better under a more liberal coach.

    When TFC threw Johnston out the door it took the opportunity to get rid of Preki too. Should they have? He did produce a couple good teams in Chivas, a franchise that has largely been horrible before and since he left.

    The question doesn’t matter, of course. TFC once again went away from conventional MLS thinking and went outside the league to hire a European after firing the experienced MLS lifer who had past success in the league.

    And here we are.



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