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  • Evaluating the Rey for Oduro trade by the numbers


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    The Alvaro Rey era at TFC is over*.

    The Spanish flash leaves Toronto as the greatest Spaniard to ever play for the Reds, narrowly edging Mista for the honour.

    To be serious, Rey was a player that left a lot of TFC fans feeling frustrated. He had flare, but more often than not the stopovers led to nothing. At 24, he's probably not going to suddenly figure it out. He was what he was: a middling MLS winger.

    The player coming back is Dominic Oduro from Columbus. He's a player that has performed at a higher level than Rey. The tense here is important. He's not performing at a better rate than Rey right now.

    This is the gamble TFC is taking. They are hoping that a regular shift as a starter (he's only started 5 of his 10 appearances this year) will allow his form to return to his 2013 standards. Columbus obviously is thinking that won't happen because Rey's unlikely to get much better.

    Here is the performance data of the two players for the last two seasons.

    All data is from Whiscored.com.

    (WSR= Whoscored ranking, S+KP= Shots plus key passes, Drb= Dribbles won, T/O+F= Turn overs plus fouls, DI=Defensive involvement --Clearances+interceptions+Recoveries+Aerial wins)

    Oduro

    2014 - WSR 6.20, S+KO 1.8, Drb 0.4, T/O+F 2.1, DI, 0.7

    2013 - WSR 7.02, S+KP 3.7, Drb 1.4, T/O+F 3.4, DI 3.2

    Rey

    2014 - WSR 6.44, S+KP 0.8, Drb 1.0, T/O+F 4.8, DI 2.8

    2013 - WSR 6.67, S+KP 1.3, Drb 1.3, T/O+F 3.3, DI 2.0

    The 2014 numbers are a wash, really. Rey is more defensively involved (likely to do with TFC's rope-a-dope tactics) and beats his man more consistently. However, he doesn't create anywhere near enough scoring chances for an attacking player.

    The bottom line is that both players are below average in 2014. That begs the question as to why you would risk team chemistry by making a move.

    Oduro's 2013 numbers are why--especially that 3.7 S+KP number. As stated, S+KP is a rough look into the amount of scoring chances a player creates. If Oduro can get back to that level this is a lights out move for TFC.

    If he doesn't, then you have to question why the turn over. It's been a constant issue at TFC and the new management was supposed to fix it.

    Lastly, the move is bad news for anyone hoping that TFC's tactics are going to change. In the press release they stressed his speed. This is a player coming to play in the counter attack. Somewhere in Holland Aron Winter is weeping.

    Speaking of managers, the move also suggests Ryan Nelsen's vision remains popular in the front office. Nellie isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

    *yep, same joke every time. It amuses me.



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