On November 25, 2010 Nathan Sturgis became the latest in a long line of TFC players. His time in Toronto would be mostly forgettable if not for a piece of trivia. Sturgis was traded for by Earl Cochrane during the transition period between Mo Johnston and Aron Winter.
As such, Sturgis became a lightning rod for fan discontent towards TFC management. It was suggested that the club was being run by amateurs with no idea how to build a winner in MLS. That very well might have been true -- what's happened since would certainly give credence to the position -- but the specific reasoning behind it was flawed.
Fans argued that the value of what Toronto gave up for Sturgis was way too high. A first round draft pick for a journeyman player? That's crazy!
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
It wasn't that crazy. In fact the player yielded by the draft pick Toronto gave Vancouver for Sturgis (Michael Nanchoff) has played 29 fewer games. If it wasn't for the fact that Toronto (of course) turned around and traded Sturgis away for next to nothing (based on fact he didn't fit the system Winter wanted to play -- which speaks to the very real dysfunction in the TFC front office at that time) Toronto would have won the trade. Not by a lot, and not in a way that would be at all inspiring, but win it nonetheless.
The trade and the debate that surrounded it at the time led to CSN doing a comprehensive analysis of the MLS SuperDraft (SD) in 2011. By looking at every selection in SD history we attempted to place a value on SD picks that could be used to evaluate trades involving picks moving forward. You can read that analysis here.
After doing a minor update last year, we have attempted to revisit the analysis again today. Since the numbers have not changed dramatically in drafts held before 2007 we have focused our update on the SDs held between 2007-2013.
The 2007 season is also generally considered to be the start of the so-called MLS 2.0 era as it had three important benchmarks: The DP rule and the arrival of David Beckham, the lesser talked about but equally important start of the homegrown rule and, of course, the start of Toronto FC and its supporter's group focused marketing strategy. As such, it is the perfect season to use as a starting point.
Before we get into the numbers, a word on the process. The core stat we use to evaluate the success of a draft pick is appearances. The ultimate goal of a team when drafting is to find useful player, preferably a starter. Finding a superstar would be nice, but it's a bonus.
Although it would be ideal to use something more than simply appearances, the variability of the game (along with the size of the task) makes any other stat difficult to use. What makes a good defensive midfielder is different than what makes a good striker so the stats aren't comparable. We also wanted to avoid any subjective measures to evaluate the draft. This project is about numbers, period, and there is no purer measure than whether the player played or not.
As with any research there will be outlying data (i.e. based on the process Mo Edu is considered a failure pick because he only played a single season in MLS. We know his career isn't a failure and that Toronto gained something valuable from him, but the raw data says he didn't directly play for the team or in the league).
However, the size of the project is such that those outlying numbers should't prevent us from drawing conclusions -- Edu is not a typical pick. Andrew Boyens (TFC's other first rounder in 2007) was though and there are a lot more Boyens than Edus.
After determining the total appearances of each player we categorized them to either be exceptional, solid, poor or failures. That is based as follows:
2008-2007 More than 134 (exceptional), 90-134 (solid), 45-89 (poor), less than 45 (failure)
2009 – More than 112 (exceptional), 75-112 (solid), 38-74 (poor), less than 38 (failure)
2010 – More than 89 (exceptional), 60-89 (solid), 30-59 (poor), less than 30 (failure)
2011 – More than 67 (exceptional), 45-67 (solid), 23-66 (poor), less than 23 (failure)
2012 – More than 44 (exceptional), 30-44 (solid), 15-43 (poor), less than 15 (failure)
2013 – More than 22 (exceptional), 15-22 (solid), 8-14 (poor), less than 8 (failure)
Those figures were based on the percentage of available games the player played in. Exceptional players appeared in more than 74 percent of available games. Solid in between 50-74 percent, poor from 25-49 percent and failures in less than 25 percent. We determined that six years was the typical length of a player's career so we capped the figures at that point.
The numbers basically correspond to starter (exceptional), regular substitute (solid), squad player (poor) and players that either never made it or barely stuck (failure).
We also broke down the draft in general terms to determine the average amount of appearances you can generally expect to yield from specific parts of the draft.
And now for the results.
2007
1. Mo Edu - Toronto - 38 - Failure
2. Bakary Soumare - Chicago - 89 - Poor
3. Michael Harrington - 181 - Exceptional
4. Chris Seitz - SLC -39 - Failure
5. Wells Thompson - New Eng - 158 - Exceptional
6. Nico Colauca - Colorado - 11 - Failure
7. John Cunliffe - Chivas - 27 - Failure
8. Jason Monteiro - Chicago - 5 - Failure
9. Anthony Wallace - Dallas - 38 - Failure
10. Andrew Boynes -Toronto -70 - Poor
11. Bryan Arquez - DCU - 0 - Failure
12. Amaechi Igwe - New Eng - 22 - Failure
13. John Michael Hayden - Houston - 0 - Failure
Totals:
2 Exceptional
0 Solid
2 Poor
8 Failure
Average appearances: 49.8
Median appearances: 32.5
Average appearances per year: 7.1
2008
1. Chance Myers - KC - 115 - Solid
2. Brek Shea - Dallas - 98 - Solid
3. Tony Beltran - SLC - 135- Exceptional
4. Sean Franklin - LAG - 160 - Exceptional
5. Ciaran O'Brien - Colorado - 1 - Failure
6. Andy Iro - Columbus - 71- Poor
7. Patrick Nyarko - Chicago - 160 - Exceptional
8. Josh Lambo - Dallas - 0 - Failure
9. Julius James - Toronto - 95 - Solid
10. Pat Phelan - Toronto - 80 - Poor
11. Roger Espinoza - KC - 113 - Solid
12. Dominic Cervi - Chicago - 0 - Failure
13. Rob Valentine - New Eng - 0- Failure
14. David Hoist - SLC - 42 - Failure
Totals
3 Exceptional
4 Solid
2 Poor
4 Failures
Average appearances: 76.4
Median appearances: 87.5
Average appearances per year: 12.7
2009
1. Steve Zakuani -Seattle - 80 - Solid
2. Sam Cronin - Toronto - 139 - Exceptional
3. Omar Gonzalez - LAG - 128 - Exceptional
4. O'Brian White -Toronto - 40 - Poor
5. Peri Marosevic - Dallas - 11 - Failure
6. Rodney Wallace - DCU - 110 - Solid
7. Chris Pontius - DCU - 123 - Exceptional
8. Matt Besler - KC - 125 - Exceptional
9. Michael Lahoud - Chivas - 94 - Solid
10. Kevin Alston - New Eng - 121 - Exceptional
11. Jeremy Hall - NYRB - 75 - Solid
12. Jean Alexander - SLC - 40 - Poor
13. Stefan Frei - Toronto - 82 - Solid
14. George John - Dallas - 119 - Exceptional
15. Ryan Maxwell - New Eng - 0 - Failure
Totals
6 Exceptional
5 Solid
2 Poor
2 Failures
Average appearances: 85.4
Median appearances: 102
Average appearances per year: 17.1
2010
1. Danny Mwanga - Philly - 92 - Exceptional
2. Tony Tchani - NYRB - 82 - Solid
3. Ike Opara - San Jose - 53 - Poor
4. Teal Bunbury - KC - 88 - Solid
5. Zach Loyd - Dallas - 111 - Exceptional
6. Amobi Okugo - Philly - 76 - Solid
7. Jack McInerney - Philly - 91 - Exceptional
8. Dilly Duka - Columbus - 96 - Solid
9. Zach Schilawski - New England - 50 - Poor
10. Blair Gavin - Chivas - 45 - Poor
11. David Estrada - Seattle - 40 - Poor
12. Bright Dike - Columbus - 30 - Poor
13. Corbin Bone - Chicago - 18 - Failure
14. Austin da Lutz - NYRB - 21 - Failure
15. Collen Warner - SLC - 76 - Solid
16. Michael Stephens - LAG - 100 - Exceptional
Totals
4 Exceptional
5 Solid
5 Poor
2 Failures
Average appearances: 66.2
Median appearances: 76
Average appearances per year: 16.5
2011
1. Omar Salgado - Vancouver - 21 - Failure
2. Darlington Nagby - PDX - 95 - Exceptional
3. Perry Kitchen - DCU - 93 - Exceptional
4. Zarek Valentin - Chivas - 40 - Poor
5. Zach MacMath - Philly - 74 - Exceptional
6. AJ Soares - New England - 76 - Exceptional
7. Kofi Sarkodie - Houston - 50 - Solid
8. Michael Nanchoff - Vancouver - 15 - Failure
9. Jalil Anibaba - Chicago - 96 - Exceptional
10. CJ Sapong - KC - 90 - Exceptional
11. Will Bruin - Houston - 83 - Exceptional
12. Rich Balchan - Columbus - 19 - Failure
13. Corey Hertzog - NYRB - 13 - Failure
14. Victor Mairongo - Chivas - 9 - Failure
15. Justin Meram - Columbus - 58 - Solid
16. Daolo Cardozo - LAG - 27 - Poor
17. Bobby Warshaw - Dallas - 32 - Poor
18. Eddie Ababio - Colorado - 25 - Poor
Totals
7 Exceptional
2 Solid
4 Poor
4 Failure
Total appearances: 50.8
Median appearances: 45
Total appearances per year: 16.8
2012
1. Andrew Wenger - Montreal - 47 - Exceptional
2. Darren Mattocks - Vancouver - 41 - Solid
3. Kelyn Rowe - New Eng - 63 - Exceptional
4. Luis Silva - Toronto - 57 - Exceptional
5. Casey Townsand - Chivas - 26 - Poor
6. Sam Garza - San Jose - 10 - Failure
7. Nick DeLeon - DCU - 47 - Exceptional
8. Andrew Jean-Baptiste - PDX - 31 - Solid
9. Austin Berry - Chicago - 62 - Exceptional
10. Ethan Finlay - Columbus - 34 - Solid
11. Matt Hedgers - Dallas - 61 - Exceptional
12. Aaron Maund - Toronto - 18 - Poor
13. Chandler Hoffman - Philly - 7 - Failure
14. Tony Cascio - Colorado - 42 - Solid
15. Andrew Duran - Seattle - 0 - Failure
16. Dom Dwyer - KC - 23 - Poor
17. Enzo Martinez - SLC -0 - Failure
18. Colin Rolfe - Houston - 0 - Failure
19. Tommy Meyer - LAG - 15 - Failure
Totals
5 Exceptional
4 Solid
3 Poor
7 Failure
Average appearances: 30.4
Median appearances: 28.5
Average appearances per year: 15.2
2013
1. Andrew Farrell - New England - 32 - Exceptional
2. Carlos Alvarez - Chivas - 28 - Exceptional
3. Kyle Bekker - Toronto - 9 - Poor
4. Kekuta Manneh - Vancouver- 20 - Solid
5. Erik Hurtado - Vancouver - 15 - Solid
6. Deshorn Brown - Colorado - 31 - Exceptional
7. Walker Zimmerman - Dallas - 7 - Poor
8. Blake Smith - Montreal - 14 - Poor
9. Ryan Finley - Columbus - 14 - Poor
10. Eriq Zavaleta - Seattle - 4 - Poor
11. Dillon Powers - Colorado - 30 - Exceptional
12. John Stertzer - SLC - 2- Failure
13. Jason Johnson - Houston - 13 - Poor
14. Mikey Lopez - KC - 0 - Failure
15. Tommy Muller - San Jose - 0 - Failure
16. Emery Welshman - Toronto - 1 - Failure
17. Taylor Kemp - DCU - 8 - Failure
18. Fernando Monge - Montreal - 0 - Failure
19. Charlie Rugg - LAG - 2 - Failure
Totals
4 Exceptional
2 Solid
6 Poor
8 Failure
Average appearances: 12.1
Median appearances 11
Average appearances per year: 12.1
As far as the expected results at each drafting position we found the following:
1. - Average of 18 appearances
2. - 21.4
3. - 22.6
4. - 20.5
5. - 15
6. - 16.5
7. - 14.8
8. - 12
9. - 18
10. - 15.6
11. - 14.3
12. - 4.3
13. - 7
14. - 13
15. - 9.9
16. - 8.75
17. - 6.2
18. - 5.2
19. - 3.5
The sample size is likely too small to give a full indication at specific spots, but it's a clear, big drop after the first few picks.
A better indicator might be to look at what you should expect from a range of spots.
Picks 1-5 average 19.5 appearances
Picks 6-10 average 15.3
Picks 11-15 average 9.1
Picks 16+ average 5.9
Or to put it in other terms, typically a top 5 pick yields a regular sub and the next 5 picks yield a squad player. The rest, the odd outlier aside, yield NASL prospects.
Overall first round draft picks average 12.97 appearances per year. Hardly exciting.
That said, about 5 players a year become MLS standouts. Half of those are selected in the first 6 picks.
So, if you can get a top 6 pick you have about a 35 percent chance of landing a starter. Picks beyond that have about 19 percent chance of landing a starting player.
Is it any wonder teams are willing to trade lower picks?
As part of our draft coverage tomorrow we will look at how individual teams have drafted over the years.