The Vancouver Whitecaps completed a player move today by adding Matt Watson.
He played the past four seasons with the D2 Carolina RailHawks - including the past three seasons under new ‘Caps head coach Martin Rennie. An Englishman, he had three goals and added two assists in 24 appearances to help Carolina capture the NASL regular season title in 2011. He ranks second all-time in club history after starting 98 of his 107 total appearances for the RailHawks.
He’s been in the US since college, so it’s possible that he has domestic status. However, there are unconfirmed reports that he will be an international player for the ‘Caps.
He’s a solid D2 player, but the question Vancouver fans will be asking is whether success in D2 can translate to success in MLS (and, if he is an international, whether he’s worth the additional expense of an international spot). It’s hard to find raw data to study this – you would need to manually collect it – but anecdotally the evidence suggests the Caps, at best, added a depth player today.
Nothing wrong with that -- you need solid guys that can play roles, but it’s important to keep things in perspective.
However, in effort to take a harder look things, CSN looked at each player that entered the league from D2 in 2010 (the date was picked simply because the data was fairly easy to find and there was enough time to measure whether the signing was successful). Also, data from pre-2007 would be all but useless as MLS was a much different league prior to then (MLS 1.0 vs MLS 2.0...)
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]In total, 11 players entered the league from the lower divisions in 2010. However, two – Jeff Parke and Steve Ralston – could not be considered typical transfers. Parke was given a one year time out by MLS after he failed a drug test and Ralston attempted to retire in his hometown St. Louis, but was forced back to MLS after Jeff Cooper was shown to be using mirrors to finance the club.
So, taking those two out of the mix, we are left with nine guys. More than half are out of MLS already. They are listed below with their total MLS appearances.
Tim Melia – 0
Cristian Arrieta – 16
J. T. Noone – 0
Alec Dufty – 0
J. P. Rodrigues – 1
Of course guys fail in MLS from all kinds of leagues. Hell, the Red Bulls currently are dealing with a bust that came from Barcelona. So, we need to factor in how well the successes are too. The four players still in the league, with appearances.
Danny Earls– 22
Joey Gjertsen – 34
Sheanon Williams – 40
Paulo Araujo Jr.– 14
Not the most inspiring list. Williams is likely the best of the bunch, but these are by and large depth players. As stated, you need depth players, but in MLS you also have to factor in what they are costing you.
Danny Earls – $32,604
Joey Gjertsen – $75,000
Sheanon Williams – $42,000
Paulo Araujo Jr. – $42,000
That’s an average of $47,901. That’s hardly breaking the bank, but one needs to ask whether there is better value available. Prior to the addition of the homegrown rule there probably wasn’t. MLS teams dipped into D2 all the time to find useful plumbers. Today, however, a club with a solid academy program could fill those slots with kids they developed themselves. They’d be free on the cap, have a much higher upside and, as a bonus, could be from the community the club represents.
In the short term, the kids might be slightly less capable than the older D2 pros, but, to use a baseball term, the VORP on the D2 journeymen guys would likely not be worth it to the club.
Basically, signing D2 players is very much a MLS 1.0 strategy. Eventually, the clubs that refuse to evolve to the MLS 2.0 model of thinking will be left behind.
There are always outliers, of course. Every few years a true late bloomer could emerge from the lower leagues and maybe the ‘Caps have found one in Watson. Those that know the player say he’s a valuable dressing room guy (the worth of that is always up for question, but we’ll take it for what it is for now). However, this conversation isn’t really about the Watson signing specifically. He’ll have a chance to prove himself and it’s up to Whitecaps fans to decide for themselves if it was a worthwhile move (also, the connection to Rennie likely makes this a one off signing rather than evidence of Rennie’s transfer philosophy).
However, fans shouldn’t waste too much time studying the rosters of NASL and USL-Pro sides looking for the next breakout MLS star.
Note: Players that are “promoted” up with the expansion clubs they played D2 with must be thought of differently. Those types of players are in a different class, clearly signed with MLS in mind. A D2 side not preparing to enter MLS would be highly unlikely to sign them. As such, it is felt that they aren’t representative of the typical D2 player, nor are clubs that are a year away from joining MLS from D2 in a typical situation. So, don’t tell me about Sébastien Le Toux* in the comments.
*Yes, I know he was signed before the franchise was awarded, but he was very much signed with MLS in mind.