So far it’s a push for those that wagered on the will Cuba get more goals than defections line, despite rumours to the contrary yesterday.
If any want to make a run for freedom they will likely only have one game left to do so. The Cubans are on 0 points and a -10 after a pair of 5-0 loses. It seems farfetched to think that the quarters are a possibility.
What isn’t farfetched is Cuba in the semi-final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. Due to an idiotic decision by CONCACAF to use FIFA rankings from before the confederation championship – and that the FIFA rankings are, well, idiotic – Fidel’s boys are somehow seeded sixth and, therefore, are receiving a bye into the semi-final round.
The mind boggles.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The main reason they are in such a good position is the rankings used came immediately after the Caribbean Cup. As a qualifying tournament for a confederation tournament the CFU event is considered a major for the purposes of giving FIFA ranking points. In other words, Cuba got more points for beating Dominica in the Caribbean Cup than Canada gets for beating Belarus in Europe and much more than it does for playing the 2004 European champions to a tough 1-0 loss on the road.
Playing in the piddly qualifiers really helps the rankings. Nine times out of ten the worst thing that comes from an inaccurate FIFA ranking is having to put up with halfwit sports writers making jokes about Canada being ranking between the Republic of Chad and Laos. This time though, the repercussions are more serious. Canada must play six more games than Cuba (along with the USA, Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras and Costa Rica) to get to Brazil.
In case you’re not aware, the 2014 cycle will see 10 teams play home and home ties to eliminate the five worst CONCACAF teams. Then six groups of four will be drawn. Only the top team from those groups will advance to the semi-finals, which see three groups of four, with the top two from each going to the hex.
Canada is seeded seventh and, as such, will be the seeded team in its quarterfinal group. Although it is more than fair to suggest that we deserve nothing if we can’t negotiate the minnow round, there is one booby-trap team the Canucks will want to avoid.
There is a one in six chance Canada will pull Guatemala. That’s the one team that could (shouldn’t, but could) make Canadian fans discover a new low point.
The one good thing about this format is that the semi-final groups seem much less likely to be set up to draw a super Group of Death like in 2008. Assuming Canada goes through, it will be in with one of Mexico, USA or Honduras from pot A and one of Costa Rica, Jamaica or our friends from Cuba.
So, a 1 in 3 chance to actually catch a break. I’m not holding my breath either.