Canadian soccer is a terribly small world. So, when Joey Saputo announces to Impact are rolling back ticket prices next year on average, by 15%, while current season ticket holders will be given a 10% rebate, of course, it's going to spark a debate about ticket prices in Toronto.
Actually, the more conspiracy minded could even view Saputo's announcement as a bit of a troll at his rivals in Toronto. Saputo wrote that the decrease was a "thank you to fans," which could be seen as a dig at MLSE that was highly criticized for raising prices each season until a fan revolt in 2010 forced the club to freeze the price.
Let's not be naïve. The freeze in Montreal has nothing to do with thanking fans. That's spin. The Impact are reacting to the fact that their attendance was disappointing once they moved to Saputo Stadium. It's good Montreal has reacted, but that demand didn't meet expectations is hardly cause for celebration.
Regardless, the debate the announcement sparked in Toronto is legitimate. The two year freeze is over at the end of this season and MLSE faces what is likely its biggest business decision in club history.
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Faced with dwindling interest, TFC must decide what is a fair price to charge fans after two disheartening seasons and 0-for-6 playoff appearances. It's a business decision with strong emotional overtones. There is also a significant difference between what the club can do and what they should do.
We'll touch on the latter in a bit, but first a look at the factors that will go into the decision and what the club could reasonably do.
For that conversation you must take the emotion out of your thinking. It's business. Period. In 2006 when the team was announced MLSE said that it could operate at a break even with an average attendance of 14,000. Even now, they are significantly higher than that. In 2012, TFC has typically put about 18,000 into the building and have sold more than that (conspiracy thinkers need to get past their perceptions regarding the announced numbers. It's reflects the amount of tickets scanned. The number is absolutely accurate and reflects a building that has 4,000 empty seats before you factor is the amount of people in the bathroom, buying beer, in the beer garden or squeezed into the supporter's section without having a ticket there). Without, at minimum, a price freeze in 2013 that number will drop further.
How far though? That's a difficult question to answer, but it is not realistic to suggest anything short of a dramatic increase would result in that type of dip. Those that believe that is possible are likely basing the assumption on the level of anger on the supporter's clubs' boards. However, it's important to remember that the groups represent a small portion of the overall fan base.
If you step away from that environment you'll see far less anger. There is some apathy, but for the majority of TFC fans the games represent summer nights outside enjoying a cold beverage. They games are more fun when the home team wins, but that's a secondary concern.
They don't live and die with the team and thus do not base their decision to buy tickets on the team's win-loss record.
Objectively, a price freeze would allow MLSE to comfortably predict a normal retention rate based on past behavior. Even if there is an additional "losing dip" of a couple percent, they are still comfortably above that 14,000 figure. In fact, if as is rumoured, TFC were to have a summer heavy home schedule in 2013 then it's not unrealistic to think that the club could expect a modest increase overall next year so long as they don't increase the cost.
So, that's your cold business perspective - a price freeze. It would likely be just enough to maintain the current level of flat interest.
But, MLSE should avoid thinking in those cold terms.
Although 18,000 is good league wide it's terrible for Toronto. The club should be aiming to get back to the sell out levels it once had and to re-engage an increasingly apathetic supporter's culture.
To do that it needs to make a much greater gesture than a price freeze. That gesture should acknowledge past failures and, more importantly, provide a tangible thank you to those that have remained loyal to the club throughout what has been an historically poor launch.
How do you do that? A suggestion:
First of all the ticket freeze is a given. Any increase, however small is a slap in the face of those that support the club.
If the club is to regain the trust of the fans there needs to be a roll back. CSN is suggesting that rollback be directly tied into the amount of time fans have held season tickets.
Those that have been on board since day 1 get a bigger rollback than those that have only held season tickets since last year. Although length of time someone has held the tickets is not a perfect measure of a fan's loyalty, it's one of the few that can easily be identified.
Using this formula a new season ticket holder for 2013 would pay 2012 prices, 2012 buyers get (for example) 5 percent off, 2011 10 percent, 2010 15 percent and so on down to original holders that would get 30 percent rollback.
The club should also commit to holding the ticket prices at those levels until they make the playoffs.
Ideally, there would be a further incentive/penalty - perhaps another 5 percent discount, to be aplied to 2014 tickets -- if they once again fail to make the playoffs in 2013.
To reach out to fans that have not been season ticket holders, the club should look at reducing concessions (there has been some talk of offering 50 percent concessions before kick-off - that would be a good start) and merchandise. Why not sell the 2013 strip at cost?
As said, the club does not need to do any of this.
It just should.