The importance of the MLS SuperDraft is often overrated by fans.
This is especially the case in Canada where many fans are familiar with the NHL, where draft picks are viewed as gold. There is good reason for that. In hockey, cap management requires a significant amount of young, cheap players and the increased speed of the game today has made the peak years of player’s performances trend younger.
Basically, the team that wins the Stanley Cup is often the team that gets the most value for young players on their first contract.
MLS is a different type of league. There, young is not a desired state to be. The three youngest teams in the league in 2012 were Toronto, Philadelphia and Portland. TFC finished 2012 19th of 19 teams, the Timbers 17th and the Union 15th.
The only reason to go young in MLS is if you have a very long view and know that you will be granted enough time to implement that plan (you also have to be sure you have the right young players…). As we see in Toronto right now, the pressure brought upon by losing makes it difficult to stick with a youth plan – fans want to win now and you simply won’t with young players.
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So, the MLS draft is only a small part of how you build a successful team in the league. That’s especially the case when you consider that the chances of landing a player of worth beyond the first few picks is very low.
The chance of getting a worthwhile player in the later rounds is so low that it might as well be a lottery.
However, a top five pick should still yield a starter. Toronto, of course, is best positioned with the No 1 pick overall and Vancouver also has a top 5 pick, acquired from Philadelphia for the Caps second round selection and the top pick in the allocation order at the time of the trade.
Montreal naturally picks 8th and Vancouver 10th. Of the four players selected in those two slots over the last two years only one, C. J. Sapong, is playing significant minutes now. So, Caps and Impact fans should go into the draft with that in mind – a one in four shot at getting a player from their natural selection is about right.
Even the No 1 pick overall yields mixed results. The last four No 1 picks were Steve Zakuani, Danny Mwanga, Omar Salgado and Andrew Wenger. All four are solid players, but none would be considered stars at this point of their career.
However, there generally is a star in each draft class.
Darren Mattocks, C. J. Sapong and Omar Gonzalez are all players that would look very good at all three Canadian clubs. Gonzalez might be the most important player in the league right now, but gets overlooked because no one wants to say that a defender is the most important player.
So, with that in mind CSN spoke to Top Drawer Soccer’s Travis Clark to help identify the top five NCAA seniors and potential Generation adidas players for the 2013 draft.
Unfortunately for Toronto there is not a clear No 1 in this draft class.
Seniors
MF Dillon Powers, Notre Dame – Clark says: Injury plagued throughout his previous three seasons, but is healthy and looking like a player ready to jump in and play significant minutes in 2013.
MF Machael David, UC Santa Barbara – Clark says: Battled some injuries this year and the Gauchos had a poor season, but he has the physical tools to contribute in MLS.
F Ryan Finley, Notre Dame – Clark says: Questions about his temperament (he was kicked off the team at Duke) but he has a nose for goal and can certainly score at the next level if he keeps himself composed.
MF Jose Gomez, Creighton – Clark says: Technically impressive attacking midfielder
F Will Bates, Virginia – Clark says: Another player with the physical tools for the league, he didn't put up dominant numbers on a young UVA team, though he'll be able to contribute minutes next year.
When it comes to GA candidates, Clark stresses that at this point it is “totally speculative” to predict what players will make the early jump to MLS. That said, he identified the following five players as most likely.
GK Andre Blake, Connecticut – Blake is generally considered to be a once in a generation talent in goal, but to be a “problem child” that could be destructive in the dressing room.
F Eriq Zavaleta, Indiana – He’s most often compared to Wenger in that he can play anywhere on the pitch, but may not ever be a true star. However, he is almost certainly going to be a regular in the league. There is some question as to whether he might be a homegrown player for Chivas USA.
MF Mikey Lopez, North Carolina – Skilled, but a bit undersized. He might be the best flare player on the list. A member of the USA u-20 player pool.
D Walker Zimmerman, Furman – Another member of the USA u-20 player pool a solid defender, but not seen as a sure-fire MLS starter just yet.
F Patrick Mullins, Maryland – The ACC offensive player of the year, Mullins, a junior, seems likely to go the GA route. He has 12 goals thus far in the 2012 season playing for the No 2 nationally ranked University of Maryland.